Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The SEC matchup between No. 1 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee in one of the conference’s four this weekend between ranked teams, and my Texas vs. Tennessee prediction expects the home underdogs to give the top-ranked team all it can handle.
Texas is a 4.5-point betting favorite, but I respect Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel’s career success against ranked teams. Kickoff from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville is set for noon ET on Saturday, airing on ABC.
🏈 Texas vs. Tennessee picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Tennessee +4.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| O/U: Under 56.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.87 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.8 units
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💰 Texas vs. Tennessee prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
🟠 Tennessee +4.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
While Tennessee had a pretty soft non-conference slate against three teams that are now a combined 4-6, it is also one of the few SEC teams to claim a non-conference win against a power conference team (Georgia Tech in the early going). It also gave freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon a chance to acclimate to the system, while leading the Volunteers to a top-four rushing offense (298.7 yards per game). Tennessee also has balance with a top-20 pass defense (151.0 yards allowed per game) and the third-most sacks (13).
It could all have been gamesmanship and not wanting to show too much early, but there has been something to nitpick from every Texas game. The Longhorns allowed a touchdown and two other drives of eight-plus plays in the first half against Texas State, then fell behind Ohio State 23-3, while Arch Manning turned in a 24.2 Total QBR last week against UTSA.
This line has been all over the place, ranging from Texas -3.5 to -5.5. I was able to back the Volunteers early at the best number, and would pass at anything lower than the current price of +4.5.
📡 SBR Edge- Unproven on the road?
Texas enters amid a 15-game September winning streak. But the Longhorns struggled on the road last season, going 2-3 with both of its wins coming in overtime against unranked Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Volunteers' dominance in the red zone to be a factor
It likely was never going to take a herculean effort for Tennessee to start 3-0 with games against Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State to begin the season. Still, its red zone dominance in that three-game stretch has been nothing short of remarkable.
The Volunteers have scored touchdowns on 90.9% of their red zone possessions so far this season, while their opponents have a red zone touchdown rate of 28.6%. If Tennessee continues to have that kind of advantage in the red zone against Texas, it should be the ninth straight underdog to cover in a game played at Neyland Stadium.
Score prediction: Texas 27, Tennessee 24
📊 Live Texas vs. Tennessee odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Texas vs. Tennessee opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas -210 | Tennessee +175
- Spread: Texas -5 (-110) | Tennessee +5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-112) | Under 56.5 (-105)
📺 How to watch Texas vs. Tennessee: Week 4
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, Tenn.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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