The Tennessee Volunteers will be without quarterback Hendon Hooker as they try to win their 10th game of the season against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Read on for our Tennessee-Vanderbilt college football picks and predictions.
In the fourth quarter of the Volunteers’ loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks last week, quarterback Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury. It’s hard to know what the Volunteers’ high-powered offense will look like against Vanderbilt this week, as backup quarterback Joe Milton III threw only eight passes last week.
The Commodores are 5-6 after winning two in a row over the Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators. With a win this week, they would earn their first bowl appearance since 2018.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 13 game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Game Info
Nov. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Weather: 55 degrees, 100% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Odds
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Odds Analysis
The Volunteers opened as 17-point favorites, but with Hooker set to miss this one, the line has dropped all the way to 13.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings. The majority of bettors are backing the Commodores to cover, whether the line is at 14 or 13.5.
The total opened at 67, and it has dropped to 64 at all the major sportsbooks, except for FanDuel, which has it at 64.5. A vast majority of bettors are backing the Under.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Picks
- Spread: Tennessee -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 64 (-110)
- Prop bet: Vanderbilt first half Over 11.5 (-115)
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt ATS Pick
Tennessee -13.5 (-110) ★★★
Hooker’s absence and Tennessee’s performance last week have led to a lot of bettors doubting the Volunteers. It’s hard to be especially confident in Tennessee, but even without Hooker, it's a better team than Vanderbilt.
The Commodores have won two in a row, and they have played solid defense during that span. However, earlier in the season, they allowed 52 or more points in three consecutive games. They lost each of those games by at least 24.
The Commodores lost 55-0 to the Georgia Bulldogs and 55-3 to the Alabam Crimson Tide. The Volunteers proved earlier in the year that they were more similar to these teams than Florida or Kentucky. Even without Hooker, we’re backing the Volunteers to win this one by two touchdowns.
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Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt O/U Pick
Over 64 (-110) ★★★
This would have been the lock of the week if Hooker was playing. The Volunteers are averaging 46.5 points per game, and they have scored 30 or more in every game except when they played Georgia. Additionally, they have scored 40 or more in seven of their 11 games.
The Commodores are allowing 34.2 points per game, which means that Milton will have plenty of opportunities to get a feel for the game and score some points.
Defensively, the Volunteers have allowed 24 or more in three consecutive games, while the Commodores have scored 24 or more in three straight.
With these recent trends in mind, ignore the overreaction to Hooker’s absence and take the Over.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prop Pick
Vanderbilt first half Over 11.5 (-115) ★★★★
The Volunteers’ defense was embarrassed last week against South Carolina. Though we expect it to be better this week, it's still prone to allowing a lot of points no matter who it plays.
The Volunteers are allowing 25.6 points per game, and the Commodores are averaging over 27 points per game. This is the most meaningful home game for the Commodores in a long time, and we expect them to come out firing against a beat-up Tennessee team.
Getting this Under two touchdowns feels like a trap. But it’s more likely that oddsmakers are just undervaluing the Vanderbilt offense.
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Tennessee-Vanderbilt picks made 11/24/2022 at 10:26 p.m. ET