Purdue vs. Ohio State Week 11 Picks: Big Dogs Cover

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell has been playing well for the Boilermakers and is a big reason why we are backing them as 20-point underdogs in our Purdue and Ohio State picks for Week 11.

The Purdue Boilermakers' home upset of Michigan State was their 17th win in school history against a top-five opponent as an unranked team. That is six more than anyone else in the poll era. Now they are up against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who have won 27 consecutive games against Big Ten teams.

Ohio State, however, is 4-4-1 against the spread this season and has covered in just two of its five home games. The Buckeyes will be home this Saturday as 20-point favorites.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 11 matchup between Purdue and Ohio State (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Purdue vs. Ohio State Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13th, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OHWeather: 43 degrees, mostly cloudy

Purdue vs. Ohio State Odds Analysis

Ohio State is currently sitting as a 20-point home favorite at most sportsbooks. Some have dipped as low as -19.5, while the highest the spread has gotten at any book has been -20.5.

The Over/Under has been a little more volatile. The current 61-point total is the lowest it has been all week and reached a high of 62.5 points at some sportsbooks.

Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Picks

Purdue +20 ??Under 61 ??

SEE ALSO: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Week 11 Picks

Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Predictions

Purdue +20 (-110)

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud will be the most talked about signal-caller in this game, as he is currently second or third on most Heisman Trophy futures lists. The attention surrounding Stroud is deserved, as he has a QBR of 89.9 against Power Five teams this year, and his 25:5 touchdown/interception ratio is one of the best in the country. He did, however, have his worst QBR (68.8) in fives games during his last time out against Nebraska. It was clear he missed the services of wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who was ruled out with a head injury.

While Stroud will get the most attention, Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell does not mind going under the radar. According to PFF, O’Connell had a passing grade of 91.8 despite attempting 54 passes against Michigan State. That is the best single-game mark among Power Five quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season.

In addition, O’Connell has completed at least 74 percent of his passes in each of his last four games and has not thrown an interception in three of them.

O'Connell's stellar play will be a big reason why the Boilermakers keep this game close. And it's a big reason why we are backing them in our Purdue and Ohio State picks for Week 11.

Under 61 (-110)

Ohio State ranks third in the country with 541.8 yards per game. The last time it led the FBS in yards per game was in 1939. It may seem blasphemous to back the Under involving two of the Big Ten’s best six offenses, but we consider this a contrarian play as the majority of the betting public will pound the Over.

If Ohio State is again without Wilson, it will allow Purdue to key in on the Buckeyes’ other star receiver, Chris Olave. Purdue, meanwhile, has arguably the best receiver in the conference in David Bell, who leads the conference in receiving yards per game and yards after the catch. Bell had 11 catches for 240 yards against Iowa and will undoubtedly be a focal point of Ryan Day’s defense.

The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams and has cashed in each of Purdue’s last four road games. Look for the Boilermakers to use long extended drives to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field.

SEE ALSO: Minnesota vs. Iowa Week 11 Picks

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 8:57 p.m. ET.