Purdue vs. Michigan Picks, Predictions College Football Week 14: Will Wolverines Roll into Playoffs?
After taking down the rival Ohio State Buckeyes last week, the Michigan Wolverines are in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game against Purdue. Read on for our top Purdue-Michigan college football picks and predictions.
Purdue (8-4, 6-3) has won three consecutive games entering this week and is 6-2 in its last eight overall. The Boilermakers have clinched back-to-back eight-win seasons for the first time since 1997-98. In addition, this is the first-ever Big Ten West championship for Purdue, and the team seeks its first conference title since 2000.
Michigan (12-0, 9-0) earned its spot in this conference championship after winning for the first time at Ohio State since 2000. The win snapped a nine-game losing streak at Columbus and moved the Wolverines to 12-0 for the first time since winning the national championship in 1997.
Here are our top picks for the college football Big Ten Championship game between Purdue and Michigan (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our college football best bets all of our top picks for Week 14!
Purdue vs. Michigan Game Info
Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Weather: Indoors
Purdue vs. Michigan Odds
Purdue vs. Michigan Odds Analysis
Despite Michigan drawing 69% of all bets on the spread, the Wolverines have taken just 35% of the cash. However, the consensus line has ticked up from an opening number of -16 to -16.5 as of Saturday morning.
Bettors are more aligned on the Over/Under and the opening line of 50.5 is up to 52 with 83% of the tickets accounting for 75% of the handle on the Over.
Purdue vs. Michigan Picks
Check out Bet365's "Win and You're In" boost for this weekend's slate of games.
Purdue vs. Michigan ATS Pick
Purdue +17 (-110) ★
The Wolverines are likely to remain the popular pick before kickoff, as they are coming off beating Ohio State for the first time in consecutive years since 1999-2000, and it was also their first win in the series when both were ranked in the top three. However, Purdue has been known to be a giant killer under Jeff Brohm, going a perfect 3-0 against AP top-five teams in his tenure.
The Boilermakers have proven they can win on the road in tough environments (victories over Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana). And with all the pressure on Michigan's side in this game, we expect Purdue to play much looser and with a nothing-to-lose attitude.
We can only give this play a one-star rating, as Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell has been away from the team dealing with his brother's recent passing. Early reports indicate the team expects to have him back under center on Saturday, but we want more information about his status before backing the underdogs.
BetMGM, along with DraftKings and PointsBet, is offering the key number of +17, so Purdue backers should head to one of those sportsbooks for better value than the other 16.5s out there.
Purdue vs. Michigan O/U Pick
Under 52 (-110) ★★★
Michigan surprised many with its aggressive play-calling against Ohio State, as J.J. McCarthy had three passing touchdowns of 45-plus yards (most by a Michigan player ever against OSU) after not completing a touchdown pass that long all season. However, while Purdue's defense entered last week allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (99th) and 105th in passing explosiveness, we would expect Jim Harbaugh's bunch to get back to more of the ground-and-pound style they played with for the first 11 games.
Michigan's Blake Corum has been ruled out for the rest of the year. The rest of the Michigan rushers face a disciplined Purdue defense that entered last week with a top 60 grade in tackling, per PFF.
Those that side with the Under will want to head to Caesars, DraftKings, or PointsBet to avoid the 51.5-point totals offered at competing sportsbooks.
Purdue vs. Michigan Prop Pick
1st Half Under 26.5 (+100) ★★
Brohm often prepares his teams well at the start of games, and last week was no exception. The Boilermakers faced an Indiana team that played at the fastest tempo in the country (averaging a play every 20.4 seconds) and held them to seven points in the first half.
Overall, Purdue's defense entered last week ranked 20th in success rate, while Michigan's defense was top five in rush success, pass success, PFF tackling, and PFF coverage. In addition, O'Connell averages 6.7 yards per attempt and has been pressured on 24.7% of dropbacks, so expect the Wolverines to dial up the pressure early.
Where to Bet on Purdue vs. Michigan Picks
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Purdue-Michigan picks made 12/2/2022 at 6:35 a.m. ET
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