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Oregon vs. Utah Week 12 Picks: Ducks To Keep Playoff Bid Going

Oregon vs. Utah Week 12 Picks: Ducks To Keep Playoff Bid Going
The Oregon Ducks are 3-point underdogs this Saturday against Utah. Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images via AFP.

Two top 25 teams will do battle this Saturday with massive stakes on the line. Find out who we think will prevail with our Oregon Ducks versus Utah Utes picks.

The Pac 12 conference is desperate to add a competitor to the college football playoff, but the risk of self-cannibalization could again end their sole hope. The number three Oregon Ducks travel to the number 24 Utah Utes as surprising underdogs. The Ducks have just one more game after this week prior to the conference championship, so their sole focus must be surviving this battle.

Both the Ducks and Utes are 4-6 against the spread on the year, making them difficult reads betting-wise. Utah has continually pushed the total over, though, giving us a good direction to cash in on a value play.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 12 matchup between Oregon and Utah (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oregon vs. Utah Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
Weather: 51 degrees, partially cloudy

Oregon vs. Utah Odds Analysis

The spread opened at just 2.5 but has since risen to 3 in favor of Utah on almost all books. This is somewhat shocking considering the recent history between these two schools has strongly favored Oregon, and the Ducks ' resume is as strong as Utah's but with two fewer losses.

The total has dropped from 60.5 to 59, providing some solid value.

Oregon vs. Utah Betting Picks

Oregon +3 (-110) ★★★
Over 59 (-105) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Wake Forest vs. Clemson Week 12 Picks

Oregon vs. Utah Betting Predictions

Oregon +3 (-110)

There's not much separating these teams on paper. Both have been efficient on offense thanks to two top 20 running games and complementary passing. Neither has played better than a mediocre strength of schedule, but Oregon's big win against Ohio State still stands out. The swing towards Utah would usually be due to an injury but this is more due to an anticipated upset than any discernible advantage on paper.

Maybe the disparities against common opponents will prove prophetic, as Oregon lost to Stanford 31-24 and barely beat UCLA 34-31. Meanwhile, Utah beat those teams 52-7 and 44-24 respectively. I don't subscribe to that theory, though, as collegiate players aren't consistent enough to project performance like that.

Simply put, Oregon is the better team despite their limitations in passing the ball. Utah shares the same concern, and they've lost more games because of it. I love the points here.

Over 59 (-105)

I'm much more confident in this game hitting the over. These teams have hit the over in seven of their last eight matchups, and the Utes have been a factory hitting the over this season. Only twice in their last 10 games have they gone under.

Factor in what this game means to both programs and I expect it to resemble Oregon's high-scoring affair against Ohio State. The teams will be loose by the second half and the fireworks will commence.

SEE ALSO: SMU vs. Cincinnati Week 12 Picks

Picks made on 11/16/2021 at 9 p.m. ET