The 2022 college football season hasn't gone as planned for either the Oklahoma Sooners or Texas Tech Red Raiders, but they'll look to finish with a victory. Read on for our top Oklahoma-Texas Tech college football picks.
Oklahoma and Texas Tech enter this game with identical 6-5 records. However, merely being bowl eligible under first-year coaches will not appease the Sooners' and Red Raiders' fan bases.
Brent Venable's and Joey McGuire's teams had much loftier goals entering the season, especially Oklahoma, which was considered a co-favorite to win the conference along with Baylor.
Oklahoma is 23-6 all time against Texas Tech, including nine wins in 13 meetings at Jones AT&T Stadium. A Red Raiders win this week would be their first in the rivalry since 2010.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 13 game between Oklahoma and Texas Tech (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13!
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Game Info
Nov. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Weather: 48 degrees, 38% chance of precipitation, 13 mph WNW wind
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Odds
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Odds Analysis
Oklahoma opened as a -2.5 road favorite and has been bet down to -2 at most sportsbooks, despite garnering 55% of the point-spread tickets and 71% of the cash.
Similarly, the total has been bet down from 64.5 to as low as 63.5, despite 82% of the tickets and 88% of the handle backing the Over.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Picks
- Moneyline: Texas Tech (+110 via Caesars)
- Over/Under: Over 63.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: Texas Tech +0.5 first half (-110 via DraftKings)
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech ML Pick
Texas Tech (+110) ★★★
If there was ever a year that the Red Raiders were going to be competitive in this rivalry, it would be this one, with the Sooners on pace for eight or fewer wins for the first time since 2000.
Even though the Red Raiders' offensive ceiling has been lowered with third-string quarterback Tyler Shough under center for the last several weeks, he has not thrown an interception in back-to-back wins over Iowa State and Kansas.
Shough has also compiled a 133.2 passer rating or better each of the last two weeks, with QBRs of 66.9 and 66.2. Thus, he got much more comfortable in the offense after the TCU debacle three weeks ago, when he completed fewer than 41% of his passes and averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt.
The coaching staff lets Shough rip the ball downfield more in home games, as his 9.0 yards per attempt are almost double his 5.1 yards in road games. Thus, he should be able to steer the offense successfully, one which entered last week ranked as the 18th-most explosive offense in the country.
Oklahoma has covered the spread in just one of its previous six games against teams with a winning record, while Texas Tech is a much more profitable 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. However, we are eschewing the small point spread in favor of a more profitable payday with plus-odds on the Moneyline.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech O/U Pick
Over 63.5 (-112) ★★★
Having Shough under center may be a blessing in disguise for the Red Raiders' offense, as they have been more successful running than throwing. Texas Tech entered last week passing at the 16th highest rate in FBS but ranked just 98th in passing success rate and an even-worse 109th in passing PPA. Conversely, Texas Tech was 42nd in rushing success rate and top-six in rushing explosiveness.
The Red Raiders will look to take advantage of a Sooners defense that entered last week ranked 91st in rush success, 88th in pass success, 110th in pass blocking, and 105th in finishing drives defensively.
These two teams still ranked in the top four in the country in pace entering last week, with each getting plays off in 21.2 seconds or less on average. Thus, we expect a quick tempo on each side to offset the impact the weather could have on this total, as snow showers and precipitation are expected in the morning.
We are making this wager at FanDuel, which is the only sportsbook offering a total this low, as all other competitors are at least at 64.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Prop Pick
Texas Tech +0.5 first half spread (-110) ★★
Texas Tech ranked 110th in rushing explosiveness against the run and 104th against the pass but had arguably its best defensive performance last week. It held an Iowa State team that ranked second in rushing explosiveness to just 128 yards and 3.0 yards per carry.
If the Red Raiders turn in another spirited performance like that this week, they should be able to cover the spread over the first 30 minutes.
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Oklahoma-Texas Tech picks made 11/24/2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET