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Sam Hartman of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is featured in our top Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction.
Sam Hartman of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish warms up prior to the game against the Tennessee State Tigers at Notre Dame Stadium. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP.

The unbeaten Duke Blue Devils are hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and we're offering our top prediction for the Notre Dame vs. Duke matchup based on college football odds from our best sports betting apps. Can Notre Dame rebound on the road in Durham, or will Duke pull off the upset at Wallace Wade Stadium? 

The pressure is on for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who need to win all their games to stay in contention for the CFP National Championship after their 17-14 loss to Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 4 due to a last-second touchdown by running back Chip Trayanum.

Facing the undefeated Duke Blue Devils on the road is not the ideal scenario for a bounce-back, considering Duke has dominated its opponents with a plus-114 point differential.

Here is our best Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction: Week 5

Notre Dame -5.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Projecting a loss for Duke by a significant margin   in our college football predictions for Week 5 feels especially daring given the way the Blue Devils have dismantled each of their early-season opponents. But coming off of the specific nature of the Ohio State loss, Notre Dame should be as motivated as any team in the country this weekend.

Sam Hartman was limited to 175 yards passing against Ohio State’s stout defense. While Duke has allowed just 162 yards per game through the air on the year, that defense hasn’t faced a passing attack that comes remotely close to representing what Hartman and the Irish have the capacity to do. Louisiana’s 50th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency is the only top-70 unit Duke has faced.

I’m projecting Duke’s defensive numbers to come back down to earth after it faces Notre Dame’s sixth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency. This isn’t going to be a game where Notre Dame steamrolls; Duke has averaged 35.7 points per game and should move the ball enough to score into the low 20s at home.

This bet is a bet on Sam Hartman, who had guided the Irish to four straight games of 40-plus points leading up to the Ohio State contest. The style of that game was old-school football. We anticipate Hartman opening it up against Duke in a higher-scoring environment.

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Notre Dame vs. Duke best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame -5.5

DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 list Notre Dame at -5.5 with standard -110 odds. All of those options are more favorable than the FanDuel odds, which see the juice increase to -115 without gaining an advantage on the line.

We’re playing Notre Dame to -6 as a three-star recommendation, but the value on the pick would evaporate if the line should move to -6.5 or beyond at some point later in the week.

Notre Dame vs. Duke odds

Notre Dame vs. Duke odds analysis

Notre Dame opened as a 5.5-point road favorite and has remained at that number across our best sports betting apps. FanDuel has the odds at -115 to back the Irish, while the other books list the wager at -110.

The total opened at 51.5 and has increased to between 52.5 and 53 across our best sports betting sites. 67% of wagers have come in on the Over.

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Notre Dame vs. Duke game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 70 degrees, 8 mph winds, 1% precipitation

Notre Dame-Duke prediction made Thursday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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