The 93rd playing of the Notre Dame-USC rivalry carries extra weight, as the Trojans will look to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Read on for our Notre Dame-USC college football picks and predictions.
Notre Dame improved to 8-3 and is in the midst of its longest winning streak (five games). The Fighting Irish have beaten three ranked teams and control much of which four teams will make the College Football Playoff.
USC (10-1, 8-1) would be eliminated with a second loss, which would also help Clemson's and Ohio State's resumes given that each team has played Notre Dame this year.
USC has won four straight games and has already clinched its spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in this rivalry.
Notre Dame vs. USC Game Info
Nov. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Weather: 72 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 4-mph SSE wind
Notre Dame vs. USC Odds
Notre Dame vs. USC Odds Analysis
USC was installed as a six-point favorite, but the spread now sits at -4. Notre Dame is drawing 63% of the cash and 51% of the tickets.
The total has also undergone two-way action, where it opened at 63.5 points but now sits at 64. The Over is drawing 57% of the cash and 74% of the tickets.
Notre Dame vs. USC Picks
- Spread: USC -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Over 64.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: Caleb Williams Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via DraftKings)
Notre Dame vs. USC ATS Pick
USC -5.5 (-110) ★★
Notre Dame has covered the spread in five of the six games it has played against teams with a winning record. However, in its five-game winning streak, it has not faced a team with a top-55 passing attack.
The Fighting Irish are a bit overvalued after their 44-0 shutout of Boston College as -20 point favorites. That game was played in a blizzard, the Eagles had a sophomore making his third career start at quarterback, and Boston College was using its ninth different offensive-line combination, the most of any Power Five school this season.
Thus, we expect USC's elite fourth-ranked passing attack (averaging 330.8 yards per game) to pose problems for a Fighting Irish defense that has not seen anything that explosive since a road game at North Carolina. Though Notre Dame won that game 45-32, Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye still threw for over 300 yards and five touchdowns, and we expect a similar game from Caleb Williams here.
We expect USC to cover for the 10th time in the last 13 games as the favorite against Notre Dame.
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Notre Dame vs. USC O/U Pick
Over 64.5 (-110) ★★★★
The trends suggest we are in for a shootout, which is precisely what we expect between these two teams. Notre Dame and USC have each had the Over cash in each of their last five games, which has them tied for the longest Over streaks in FBS.
The Fighting Irish average 31.0 points per game behind a dominant rushing attack that averages 4.6 yards per carry. Against the only other top-16 passing attack it faced all season, Notre Dame ran for 287 yards and 5.6 yards per carry while dominating time of possession (38:13 to 21:47). Look for a similar game plan here, with Williams and the USC offense still making the most of what could be limited possessions.
Though all sportsbooks are in unison with this 64.5-point total, FanDuel is most appealing for Over backers, given its lower -105 juice.
Notre Dame vs. USC Prop Pick
Williams Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-130) ★★★
Williams has a chance to make a big Heisman statement in the national spotlight with the team's CFP hopes on the line, and Riley will undoubtedly create a game plan to maximize his quarterback's skill set. Williams has 33 passing touchdowns in 11 games, and the Trojans have scored at least 40 points in five straight games.
The quarterback is coming off a career-best 470-yard performance against UCLA, and we expect that momentum to carry over to this week.
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Notre Dame-USC picks made 11/25/2022 at 7:19 a.m. ET