College Football ATS Picks Week 8: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks followed up consecutive 5-2 weeks with a third straight winning week (4-3), including a cover by then-No. 22 LSU cover as one of our best bets in a game it shut out No. 16 Mississippi State.

Two of my top three college football predictions for Week 8 involve games with ranked teams. While I liked what I saw out of No. 9 UCLA in its first game without its starting quarterback, I expect No. 2 BYU to struggle in a big letdown spot after its big win over a top-2 opponent. The first of my highlighted ATS wagers has a Friday night kickoff, so be sure to get your wagers in early. 

College football picks against the spread: Week 8

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 8 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football ATS picks: Week 8

Tulsa -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Army

Army is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, cruising against Florida Atlantic 56-24 at home. That ended a streak of four straight games against FBS competition where the Black Knights went 2-2 with every game decided by four or fewer points. 

While Army’s triple-option attack is something that is difficult for teams to prepare for in the span of a week, Tulsa has a big advantage having faced two consecutive triple-option offenses (Navy and Rice) on the road.

Along with the preparation advantage that the Golden Hurricanes have, they should be able to put up a big number against Army’s defense. The Black Knights rank near dead-last among FBS defenses in Havoc rate, pass rush win rate, and rush explosives allowed. Meanwhile, Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes has an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and can hand off to a backfield that ranks in the top 25 in rush explosives in two different run concepts.

UCLA -13.5 (-117 via bet365) vs. Michigan State

No. 9 UCLA likely got all it could hope for out of a 17-7 win in a defensive struggle over Wisconsin last week in what was backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach’s first start. While the days of averaging 44.8 points per game like the Bruins did through their first four games are likely over, it was encouraging to see them rely on defense to make Bob Chesney the first UCLA head coach to begin his tenure 6-0.

UCLA used an ultra-aggressive defense to generate 10 pressures while blitzing Wisconsin’s Colton Joseph on 16 of 21 dropbacks. 

The Bruins did well to generate 20 first downs and 384 total yards despite their running game being held to 3.2 yards per carry. Running back Wayne Knight had entered Week 6 averaging 9.1 yards per rush (second in FBS, min. 45 attempts), and I expect him to get going against a Spartans defense that ranks outside the top 120 in quality drives allowed.

UCF +6.5 (-102 via BetMGM) vs. BYU

BYU stymied Notre Dame last week, holding the Fighting Irish to a 38% success rate (15.6% lower than their average through the first six weeks).

Not taking anything away from the Cougars’ victory, but how would we perceive them this week if not for C.J. Carr’s fumbled spike attempt at the end of the first half, or if any or either of Notre Dame would have been given one second left to run another play at the end of regulation or if  pass interference was called on the last play.

BYU’s 64.3% to 30% advantage in the red zone was a big key in the narrow victory. But it cannot rely on that against a tricky UCF opponent that will not be fazed by the competition having played ranked opponents in Houston (a game it led 17-0) and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks. UCF is also now off a bye week and entered its last game allowing touchdowns on just 44% of opponent red zone trips.