College Football Moneyline Picks Week 8: Predictions to Win This Week

Despite the chaos that took place last week, my college football moneyline picks went 11-9 overall, including a profitable 2-2 record on the four plays on underdogs. You know it was a crazy weekend for the sport when Alabama, Georgia, and Texas all lost on the same day for the first time since 1996 and was also the first day in the history of the AP Poll (since 1936) where five different top-8 teams all lost.

With more teams on midseason byes, I scoured deeper for my best 20 plays from the Week 8 slate, including why No. 11 Tennessee is not deserving of being road underdogs to South Carolina after its 16-point victory over then-No. 6 Alabama. 

College football moneyline picks: Week 8

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 8 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football moneyline picks: Week 8

Kansas (+130 via FanDuel) vs. Baylor

Bet size: 1 unit

Since Baylor was coming off a massive 55-19 road win at Arizona State the week prior, it is a huge disappointment in comparison to then have lost 17-6 to in-state rival TCU last week, which ended the Bears’ four-game winning streak.

Baylor’s defense has been historically stingy, allowing 19 or fewer points in six straight games to start the season, the first time since 1966. But Kansas is built to challenge the Bears' defense, as two of its top nine games in school history for total offense have come this season. 

Baylor enters this game searching for an offensive identity, as chucking the ball 53 times last week led to a season-low 41.5% completion percentage from DJ Lagway. That also led to a season-low 310 total yards of offense, while Lagway has completed 50% or fewer of his passes in three of four starts.

Miami (OH) (-130 via BetMGM) vs. Central Michigan

Bet size: 1 unit

Miami (OH) was just 2-for-9 on third down, totaled 65 passing yards, and possessed the ball for four fewer minutes, but it was still good enough to beat Akron by 20 points last week and win back-to-back games for the first time all season. The RedHawks pulled away with a plus-three turnover margin and a career-high 142 rushing yards from Rodney Nelson.

Turnovers and the running game are two areas where Miami (OH) can exploit Central Michigan. The Chippewas rank 10th in the MAC, allowing 184.3 rushing yards per game, while the RedHawks have controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing the MAC's best 99.3 rushing yards per game. In addition, Central Michigan is one of 63 FBS teams averaging 1.3 giveaways per game.

No. 11 Tennessee (+113 via bet365) vs. South Carolina

Bet size: 1 unit

When a line smells as fishy as this one does, with an unranked South Carolina team that has lost three of four SEC games being favored over a top-11 Tennessee squad, I normally back the side that doesn’t make the most sense while realizing that oddsmakers have likely found an exploitable edge in the matchup.

But there was an example last week of a ranked Kentucky team beating unranked Oklahoma as seven-point underdogs, and I’m willing to back the Volunteers off an emotional home win against a top-six team.

To win on the road in the SEC, a team needs a strong running game. Tennessee ranks second in the SEC, averaging 217.1 rushing yards per game, while DeSean Bishop entered last week averaging 4.5 yards after contact per rush (first in the SEC), with 35 forced missed tackles (second). 

South Carolina has the conference’s best rushing attack at 232.3 yards per game. But the Volunteers held an Alabama offense ranked fourth nationally in rush success rate and third in points per opportunity to 10 total points, 12 first downs, and 2.1 yards per rush on 26 attempts.