Michigan vs. Penn State Week 11 Picks: Defenses Shine in Low-Scoring Game

A battle between the 8-1 Michigan Wolverines and 6-3 Penn State Nittany Lions is almost as even as it gets. Find out who we like in this Big Ten showdown with our Michigan and Penn State picks for Week 11.

Both the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions are performing well against the spread at 7-2 and 6-3, respectively. These programs have nearly split their last 10 matches evenly. The Nittany Lions are 6-4 straight up over that span and 5-5 ATS, and the average score has been 26.9 to 26.2 for Michigan.

Everything is shaping up for this to be another close contest. The Wolverines have used the run to dominate most of their games, whereas the Nittany Lions solely depend on their passing game. Both teams are fighting for their standing within the conference entering Week 11, where Michigan enters as a slim 1-point favorite.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 11 matchup between Michigan and Penn State (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a one-to-five star scale).

Michigan vs. Penn State Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 12 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PAWeather: 71 degrees, sunny

Michigan vs. Penn State Odds Analysis

This line opened at Michigan -2.5 but has sharply declined since. Some sportsbooks have it as a pick'em despite the Nittany Lions dropping three of their last four games.

Don't wait long to bet on this game regardless of which direction you're going because this is a volatile line. The SBR betting consensus shows a majority backing Penn State and the Under.

Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Picks

Michigan -1 (-105) ????Under 48.5 (-110) ??

SEE ALSO: Minnesota vs. Iowa Week 11 Picks

Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Predictions

Michigan -1 (-105)

Both of these teams boast athletic defenses that can suffocate their foes at the line of scrimmage when playing their best. We've seen both Michigan and Penn State exert their blue blood will on certain foes throughout the year, but also come up short when it matters the most. With a near pick'em line, I'm looking at performance in big games and the last month's worth of trends to find where the advantages are.

It's hard to get past how one-dimensional Penn State's offense is and how inconsistent quarterback Sean Clifford is. He's usually the Nittany Lions' biggest limitation despite being their primary producer. I like Michigan to fully take advantage of this fact as Don Brown keys in on Clifford's shoddy accuracy and slow decision-making.

I'm backing the Wolverines as a short favorite in our Michigan and Penn State picks for Week 11.

Under 48.5 (-110)

This is a tough total to play. Both of these teams' top matchups have featured some high-scoring performances, but there's nothing consistent to say this battle will hit the Over.

Penn State has gone Under in four of its last five games and seven of its last nine overall.

Michigan, on the other hand, has a 4-6 Over/Under mark in its last 10. The Wolverines' loss against Michigan State was a notable Over, but their defense has helped keep totals low in other games.

I think Michigan wins a low-scoring, classic Big Ten battle.

SEE ALSO: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Week 11 Picks

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 11:22 p.m. ET.