A spot in the Big Ten Championship game and the College Football Playoff is on the line when blood rivals Michigan and Ohio State meet up Saturday. Check out our top Michigan-Ohio State college football picks.
Michigan (6-4-1 against the spread, 2-8-1 Over/Under) overcame numerous injuries last week to escape with a two-point home win over Illinois. The result kept the Wolverines’ unbeaten record intact. Michigan will seek to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game for the second year in a row with a win on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Ohio State (5-5-1 ATS, 8-3 O/U) had to overcome a scare of its own to escape with a road win over Maryland last week. The 13-point margin of victory was hardly indicative of how close the game was throughout. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes remained unbeaten and have won all of their games to date by double-digits.
Ohio State is out to avenge its shocking 42-27 loss to Michigan last November, but the game was at "The Big House."
Michigan vs. Ohio State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 26, noon ET
Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Weather: 48 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-7-mph winds SW
Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds
Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds Analysis
The favored Buckeyes opened as eight-point favorites, and though the line temporarily dropped to 7.5, it currently sits at nine points ahead of kickoff.
Variations for the total remain available, but after opening at 58 points, the Over/Under is set at 56. The Under has drawn 60% of the cash and 63% of the tickets.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks
Michigan vs. Ohio State ATS Pick
Ohio State -7.5 (-110) ★★★
Clearly, both Michigan and Ohio State were looking past their respective opponents last week.
The Wolverines were particularly fortunate. If not for several blatant officiating errors, Michigan would have lost last week’s game outright. That said, quarterback J.J. McCarthy deserves credit for leading back-to-back scoring drives in the waning minutes against a stout Illinois defense.
Whether or not McCarthy can come through in a hostile environment against a far more athletic Ohio State defense is another story. The Buckeyes have allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents. As such, Michigan’s hopes of springing the upset on the road will depend heavily on the availability of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
If the Wolverines can’t run the ball successfully and control the time of possession, Ohio State will not only have a great chance to win but to do so in a convincing fashion. Like Michigan, the Buckeyes’ backfield is dealing with several injuries. That said, OSU has far more quality depth at the position.
Of course, Ohio State also has a far more potent passing attack. Despite star wideout Jaxson Smith-Njigba only playing in three games due to a hamstring injury, the Buckeyes still rank second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
For as solid as Michigan’s defense has been all season, it has yet to face an aerial attack that comes close to matching what C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes are capable of. The fact that the betting public is so eager to back the underdog simply reinforces the decision to lay the points.
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Michigan vs. Ohio State O/U Pick
Under 56.5 (-110) ★★
Each of the last three installments of “The Game” has turned into an offensive shootout. However, it’s tough to bank on Saturday’s encounter playing out the same way given that both sides boast top-10 rankings in adjusted defensive efficiency.
For Michigan, a defensive-minded affair is perhaps the only path to an upset victory. Winning in the trenches on both sides of the ball will be critical for the Wolverines. With the interior of Ohio State’s offensive line not being up to par with those of recent years, Michigan has a fair chance at stopping the run effectively.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s decision to hire Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator has paid major dividends. Michigan will be hard-pressed to overpower the Buckeyes on the ground. That sentiment only rings more true if Corum is not fully healthy.
Given how unimpressive Michigan’s offense was in two previous matchups against elite defensive teams (Iowa and Illinois), it’s tough to envision a significant uptick in scoring against Ohio State. Much like the ATS outcome, whether or not the total goes Over or Under could depend on how well the Wolverines’ secondary holds up in coverage.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Prop Pick
Emeka Egbuka receiving yards: 70+ (-106) ★★★
Last week, the Maryland defense did a great job of clamping down on leading Ohio State wideout, Marvin Harrison Jr. Assuming that Michigan will attempt to do the same, the door swings wide open for slot receiver Emeka Egbuka to become Stroud’s preferred target.
With a team-leading 82 receiving yards last week, Egbuka has now reached the 70-yard threshold in eight of 11 games on the year. Due to Smith-Njigba’s injury, the sophomore has seen his role expand greatly. Egbuka has hauled in at least four receptions in all but two games this season. He figures to be a key cog in Ohio State’s passing attack once again on Saturday.
As for the prop itself, we are actually looking to play the alternate yardage total at FanDuel due to the price discrepancy. There’s no reason to bet the Over on 69.5 receiving yards for Egbuka at -114 odds given that the only way that prop cashes is if he finishes with 70+ yards. The difference may only be eight cents, but savvy odds shopping can certainly add up over time.
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Michigan-Ohio State picks made 11/23/2022 at 6:15 p.m. ET