Fresno State vs. Boise State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 14: Will Bulldogs Get Revenge?
The Mountain West Conference title will be decided Saturday between the Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos. Read on for our Fresno State-Boise State college football picks based on the latest odds.
Fresno State (8-4, 7-1) enters this contest on a seven-game winning streak, which is tied for the nation's sixth-longest active run. Meanwhile, Boise State (9-3, 8-0) was one of six teams to go undefeated in conference play.
This is a rematch of the 2018 Mountain West Championship Game when Fresno State won 19-16 in overtime. Boise State has made two more championship game appearances since then, beating Hawaii in 2019 and losing to San Jose State in 2020.
Here are our Fresno State-Boise State college football picks for Week 14 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 14!
Fresno State vs. Boise State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, 4 p.m. ET
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Weather: 39 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 12-mph southeast wind
Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds
Fresno State vs. Boise Odds Analysis
Bettors have liked the underdog this week. The consensus opening spread of Boise State -5.5 as down to -3 as the Bulldogs have drawn the support of 64% of the tickets and cash.
The Over/Under has increased from the opening line of 51 to 54.5 as of Saturday morning with 85% of the tickets accounting for 80% of the handle on the Over.
Check out Bet365's "Win and You're In" boost for this weekend's slate of games.
Fresno State vs. Boise Picks
Fresno State vs. Boise ATS Pick
Fresno State +3.5 (-115)★★★★
We can throw out most of what happened during Boise State's 40-20 home victory over Fresno State on Oct. 9, as the Bulldogs played that contest without senior quarterback Jake Haener, who missed the game with a high ankle sprain. While most teams would have folded after the loss that dropped Fresno State to 1-4, the Bulldogs rallied behind backup quarterback Logan Fife for victories over the next two games. Then the school then took off upon Haener's return.
In the five games that Haener started to finish the regular season from Oct. 29 onward, the Bulldogs averaged 39 points per contest while producing a plus-110 point differential.
The underdog has been dominating this rivalry while covering the spread in eight of the previous nine meetings between these teams. That's what we expect to happen here, with Haener leading the way.
Making this wager at BetMGM is worth paying the slightly extra juice, as FanDuel is the only other sportsbook currently offering +3.5, but at -122 odds.
Fresno State vs. Boise O/U Pick
Under 54.5 (-112)★★
Expect each head coach to make defensive adjustments during the second meeting in 2022 between these teams, leading to the ninth time the Under cashes over Boise State's previous 10 December games.
Fresno State entered Week 13 ranked 98th in Division I while allowing 4.6 yards per carry. However, look for the Bulldogs to commit more defenders to the box to slow down George Holani, the conference's third-leading rusher at 1,059 yards. The Bulldogs' secondary has also been excellent with a 29th-ranked pass coverage grade entering last week, according to PFF.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook as high as 54.5 on this total, so Under backers will find the best value there.
Fresno State vs. Boise Prop Pick
Fresno State -2.5 first-half spread (-110) ★★
Despite being limited to eight games, Haener finished second in the conference with 2,432 passing yards and 17 touchdowns while leading all quarterbacks by a wide margin with a 162.2 passer rating.
Those numbers are even more impressive when factoring in that Fresno State's Air Raid offense entered Week 13 with just a 52% pass rate. How much of that offensive balance was due to Haener's time missed due to an injury? That's anyone's guess, making Fresno State a much more difficult team to prepare for now.
As a result, expect the Bulldogs to hold the advantage, at least for the first 30 minutes. They carry the momentum of a seven-game winning streak into this week.
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Fresno State-Boise State picks made 12/2/2022 at 6:29 a.m. ET