Colorado vs. Arizona State Free College Football Picks for Week 4

The Colorado Buffaloes are a tasty contrarian NCAAF pick for Saturday’s Pac-12 game against the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 10:30 PM ET at Sun Devil Stadium

How ‘bout them Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)? They were a fashionable choice this offseason to give USC a run for their money in the Pac-12 South, and they do indeed look pretty good heading into the conference portion of the FBS schedule. Herm Edwards has an impressive collection of skill players on offense, including dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels. They should have little trouble beating the Colorado Buffaloes (1-2 SU and ATS) at home this Saturday.

There’s no way we’re putting Arizona State in our Week 4 college football picks. It’s what the Sun Devils don’t have that’s kept them winless against the spread – that, plus inflated expectations. The sharps know the score. Consensus reports at press time show 97 percent of early bettors taking Colorado, who are getting 14.5 points at (visit our Sportsbook Review) after opening at the magic +14. All this contrarian goodness can be yours, too, if the price is right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtwO_6H7jY4

They’re All Dog Days

The computers clearly think it is: Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today has Arizona State winning by 9.28 points using his overall Rating formula. That leaves us with yet another gaping hole between the projections and the actual college football odds. Is this the new normal in sports betting? Has the mainstreaming of our great national pastime opened the floodgates for unlimited public money to come rushing in and fill our bankrolls?

Perhaps. Let’s bring in a second source from the quant division; ESPN’s Football Power Index has ASU winning 78 percent of the time, which sounds like a lot, but only works out to a –354 moneyline using the life-affirming SBR Odds Converter. Note also that (visit our Sportsbook Review) have Colorado listed at +495 on their NCAAF odds board. I mean, c’mon. You know we have to do it to ‘em.

QB Jayden Daniels #5 of the Arizona State Sun Devils. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Hot Enough For You?

It’s not that the Sun Devils are bad at this sport. Football Outsiders have them ranked No. 25 overall on their F/+ Ratings heading into Week 4, well ahead of Colorado at No. 81. But there are some flaws on this team, which remains largely untouched from last year; Daniels (two TD passes, three INTs) in particular has to be more protective of the ball, as we saw in Arizona State’s 27-17 loss to the BYU Cougars as three-point road faves.

There’s one other angle to consider for this matchup: The old-school Tempe Under. Temperatures are expected to remain in the low-to-mid 90s throughout this contest, which won’t be comfortable at all for most of these players as the night drags on. The Under is already 3-0 for ASU this season, and 4-2 in September home games (including their first two games in 2021) since Edwards took over three years ago.

Wouldn’t you know it, the consensus reports show 100-percent enthusiastic consent for the Under despite the low, low total of 45 points at BetOnline. This could be a great spot to pull off the classic underdog-Under parlay, but we’re going to stick with the spread here at the ranch, since we have the numbers to back us up. It’s just the right thing to do.

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.