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Mike Wright of the Vanderbilt Commodores celebrates against the Kentucky Wildcats.
Mike Wright of the Vanderbilt Commodores celebrates against the Kentucky Wildcats. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

After losing both its College Football Playoff hopes and star quarterback in the same game last week, is Tennesee vulnerable to being upset again by rival Vanderbilt? Read on for our top college football upset picks and predictions for Week 13.

College football rivalry games have a knack for producing some stunning results. As such, there are bound to be a few major upsets in Week 13 as rival schools across the country do battle.

With several underdogs needing to win their respective regular-season finales to gain bowl eligibility, the potential for chaos only increases.

Here are our top college football upset picks for Week 13 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook).

College Football Upset Picks for Week 13

  • Georgia State (+205 via FanDuel)
  • Texas State (+175 via Caesars)
  • Vanderbilt (+420 via FanDuel)

Week 13 College Football Upset Predictions

Georgia State (+205)

If not for a second-half collapse against James Madison last week, Georgia State would still have a chance to become bowl eligible with a win over Marshall on Saturday. The Panthers may no longer be in the mix for a bowl game, but they are still a dangerous team capable of springing an outright upset.

GSU’s ball-hawking defense forced a quartet of fumbles in last week’s game. A positive turnover margin would be most helpful again on Saturday given how stout Marshall is defensively. The Thundering Herd rank 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game.

The Panthers profile as a run-first offense, but they also have an experienced and capable quarterback in Darren Grainger. The fact that Marshall has scored 26 points or less in all but one game against Sun Belt opponents suggests that Georgia State probably won’t need more than a handful of quality possessions to have a shot at the upset.

Bettors should also take note of the drastic differences in odds across the market with regard to this upset prediction. FanDuel’s Moneyline price on Georgia State of +205 offers as much as 20 cents of additional value compared to what other sportsbooks are offering.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Texas State (+175)

Perhaps it’s no surprise that two of our college football upset picks come from the Sun Belt Conference this week. When it comes to parity, few leagues have been able to match the SBC this season. Texas State certainly knows this. Win or lose, four of the Bobcats’ last five games have been decided by six points or less.

After a thrilling comeback victory last weekend, Texas State’s season finale comes against a Louisiana team that needs to win to become bowl eligible. Sometimes, that added pressure can prove to be beneficial. On other occasions, teams in a must-win scenario will play tight. 

Despite being favored to earn their sixth win on Saturday, the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t exactly have a strong track record on the road this season. Louisiana has only one win away from Lafayette with three losses coming by double digits. The Cajuns have lacked consistency on offense all year and put up no fight whatsoever last week against Florida State.

Meanwhile, Texas State has been quite feisty at home this season. The Bobcats have won four of their five games in San Marcos to date, including a shocking upset over perennial SBC powerhouse Appalachian State.

A win over last year’s conference champs would certainly give the TSU program momentum heading into the offseason.

Vanderbilt (+420)

Last week, Tennessee's dreams of making the College Football Playoff went up in smoke. Simply losing against South Carolina would’ve been bad enough. Making matters worse, the Volunteers also lost star quarterback Hendon Hooker to a torn ACL. 

After such a drastic change to the outlook of Tennessee’s season, gearing up for a rivalry game on the road against Vanderbilt could prove to be easier said than done. Additionally, the Commodores are suddenly red-hot. Upset wins over Kentucky and Florida in each of the last two weeks have positioned Vandy to become bowl eligible with a win over the Vols on Saturday.

In addition to the outright upset wins the last two weeks, Vanderbilt more than held its own against Missouri and South Carolina. If not for multiple turnovers deep in Carolina territory, the Commodores might very well have knocked off the same Gamecocks team that pummeled Tennessee a week ago. 

Offensively, Vandy is not a pushover. Given how bad the Vols’ defense looked last week, they could get more than they bargained for once again. Although Tennessee has triumphed in each of the last three in this series, Vanderbilt has won five of the last 10 meetings overall. 

It’s worth pointing out once again the value of shopping the odds before placing a bet on the ‘Dores to pull the upset. With most sportsbooks having Vandy priced at 4-1 on the Moneyline (and some as low as +360), FanDuel’s +420 odds offer a much greater potential payout.

Where to Bet on College Football Upset Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

College football upset picks made 11/25/2022 at 1:18 p.m. ET.