College Football Playoff Betting: Which Group of Five Teams Should You Bet?
In the 10-year history of the College Football Playoff, just one Group of Five program has ever qualified for the postseason.
That was a 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats team that rode the momentum of going 20-4 the previous two seasons before a 13-0 record finally forced the committee to put them in. That team was built by Luke Fickell with a plethora of NFL talent, including Sauce Gardner and Desmond Ridder.
That success helped Cincinnati become one of the major G5 schools that moved to a power conference. And conference realignment appeared to doom the Group of Five's CFP chances.
But with expansion to a 12-team playoff, it's not just opened the door for several brand-name programs to climb the College Football Playoff odds, but it's guaranteed at least one G5 school will make the postseason every year.
Under the CFP rules, the five highest-ranked conference champions get an automatic bid in the playoff. That likely means the winner of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 along with the highest-ranked G5 conference champ.
So which Group of Five programs realistically have the best shot at qualifying for the playoff?
Group of Five College Football Playoff odds
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | +400 | +440 | OFF | +210 | +500 |
| Boise State | +400 | +400 | +400 | +400 | +450 |
| Memphis | +700 | +550 | +625 | +650 | +600 |
| Tulane | +1000 | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 |
| Appalachian State | +1000 | +1400 | +1300 | +1100 | +1200 |
| UTSA | +1200 | +1300 | +1300 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Texas State | +1200 | +1500 | +1400 | +1300 | +1500 |
| Fresno State | +1500 | +2500 | OFF | +1400 | +1600 |
| USF | +1500 | +2000 | OFF | +1800 | +1500 |
| Louisiana | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +2200 | +2000 |
Group of Five teams to bet for the College Football Playoff
Liberty (+500)
There's two reason that Liberty is probably the best bet to earn the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff.
For one, the Flames have the buzz in their favor after going 13-1 in Jamey Chadwell's first season as head coach. But maybe more importantly, they've got the resources of a Power Four school, but they play in arguably the weakest G5 conference: Conference USA.
It's well documented why the Flames haven't been welcomed into a better conference and essentially had to buy their way into the C-USA, but it is working out for them. Between Chadwell and Hugh Freeze, Liberty has gone 47-17 over the last five seasons and was 13-0 in its first season in the C-USA last year before Oregon blew its doors off in the Fiesta Bowl.
With Kaidon Salter back running Chadwell's spread option offense - which helped him go 31-6 over his last three seasons at Coastal Carolina - it's hard to imagine Liberty dropping a game in the C-USA.
Salter, a Tennessee transfer, is the best QB in the G5 and threw for nearly 3,000 yards while rushing for over 1,000 and totalling 44 touchdowns last season. He also led all G5 QBs in big-time throw rate (8.3%), per PFF.
It's not just him back, either. Running back Quninton Cooley returns, too, after rushing for 1,401 yards and 16 scores last season. Those two give the Flames a dominant rushing attack that had Liberty ranked 16th on offense by SP+. Their defense isn't quite as strong but does return six starters including preseason C-USA Defensive Player of the Year CJ Brazile.
With a cupcake schedule that ranks 129th-toughest in the country, a win against Appalachian State in Boone on Sept. 28 should seal the deal for the Flames. That's assuming they don't trip up elsewhere, and if they don't, a $10 winning bet on Liberty pays a $50 profit.
Best odds: +500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 16.67%
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Appalachian State (+1400)
I think the smartest way to play this whole thing is to bet on both Appalachian State and Liberty. The reason I'm so high on the Mountaineers is because they get the chance to play the Flames at home.
A win against them could go a long way for making their playoff case if they win the Sun Belt. Of course, unlike the C-USA, the Sun Belt is a loaded conference and App hasn't been quite the powerhouse under Shawn Clark that it once was.
Still, Clark's won at least nine games in three of his four seasons at the helm, and this might be his most talented team on paper. The Mountaineers rank 33rd in returning production, and that includes bringing back star QB Joey Aguilar.
Aguilar helped Appalachian State rank 24th on offense in SP+ and put up the 26th-most points per game in the country (33.2). He also ranked fifth in big-time throws by G5 QBs (24) and finished with 36 touchdowns.
Also back are running back Kanye Roberts, wide receiver Kaedin Robinson, and tight end Eli Wilson. This should be the best offense in the Sun Belt. And while the defense does have questions, it brings back nine starters, including star pass rusher Nate Johnson.
The problem for the Mountaineers is they have Clemson and Liberty in non-conference play and Marshall, Louisiana, and James Madison in Sun Belt play. That schedule is ranked 54th-toughest in the country.
But if they can pull the upset at home against Liberty and put up a fight against Clemson, that will go a long way in the committee's eyes when ranking a G5 power like App. A $10 winning bet on the Mountaineers pays an $140 profit.
Best odds: +1400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.67%
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Boise State (+450)
The reason I'm so confident in Liberty and Appalachian State is because they have two of the best Group of Five quarterbacks in the country. Boise State doesn't have that, which is part of the reason I'd slot them behind both the Flames and the Mountaineers.
What they do have is maybe the most underrated player in college football and the likely top running back in the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty didn't just finish with 1,916 yards from scrimmage and 19 TDs last season; he did most of his damage after contact.
The 5-foot-9, 215-pound bowling ball looks like Maurice Jones-Drew with his contact balance and explosiveness, and it helped him finish third in the country in yards after contact per carry (4.52). He's the best G5 bet by the Heisman Trophy odds.
With Jeanty as the Broncos' bell cow, it might not matter a ton whether it's Maddux Madsen or Malachi Nelson at QB. They also bring back four offensive linemen that started at least seven games last season and the group has 66 career starts, per Phil Steele.
New head coach Spencer Danielson - who went 3-1 as interim and won the Mountain West last season - should have Boise State's defense looking spicy, too. The Broncos rank 23rd in returning defensive production with eight starters back and another three who have experience.
Edge rusher Ahmed Hassanein and defensive tackle Braxton Fely both ranked in the top 10 in pressures in the G5 at their respective positions last season. Hassanein was also picked as preseason Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year.
There's a reason the Broncos are massive front-runners by the Mountain West Championship odds. However, the QB situation and a schedule that includes Oregon, Washington State, and Oregon State out of conference will be tough.
If they drop two of those and Liberty or App have just one loss, how will the committee rank that trio? If they put the Broncos in, a $10 bet pays a $45 profit.
Best odds: +450 via bet365 | Implied probability: 18.18%
Group of Five teams to avoid for the College Football Playoff
Memphis (+700)
What's the problem with Memphis? The Tigers are coming off a 10-3 season, return one of the best G5 QBs in Seth Henigan, have a star wide receiver in Roc Taylor, and play in a conference that the committee likely respects more than the C-USA and Sun Belt.
That last point is the problem. They can do all the respecting they want of the AAC, but two losses on the Tigers schedule won't look good on the resume in comparison to the Flames and Mountaineers.
The Tigers don't just have to play their three toughest conference opponents on the road (USF, UTSA, and Tulane), they also have Florida State on Sept. 14 in Tallahassee. If they can escape those four games with just two losses, then I'd say head coach Ryan Silverfield is doing a pretty good job.
That Florida State game is also followed by playing Navy on the road, and having to defend the triple option a week after playing a top-10 team in the country sounds worse than taking a trip to Memphis and forgetting to visit the Bass Pro Shops pyramid.
So while the Tigers' schedule only ranks 61st-toughest, thanks to a few brutal opponents, it doesn't look nearly as smooth as Liberty's or Appalachian State's.
Memphis will be good. It ranks 26th in returning production and was 10th in SP+ on offense last year, but reaching the playoff looks damn hard. And it's not as if this defense was very good last year, ranking 111th in SP+.
Best odds: +700 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 12.50%
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Tulane (+1200)
I think it's crazier than a night on Bourbon Street that Tulane has shorter odds than Appalachian State to make the CFP. The Green Wave deserve respect after how impressive they've been the last two seasons, but they've lost a lot.
Head coach Willie Fritz left for Houston, quarterback Michael Pratt was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, and leading wide receiver Chris Brazzell transferred to Tennessee.
So even though I think Tulane hit a home run with the hire of Jon Sumrall from Troy as head coach, I don't believe this program will easily bounce back from losing so much. The Green Wave are just 98th in returning production and will be relying on Oregon transfer Ty Thompson at QB - he threw just 66 passes in three seasons with the Ducks.
Like Memphis, Tulane is in the AAC and has a pair of brutal non-conference games. The Green Wave play Kansas State and Oklahoma in Norman in their second and third games of the season before heading to Lafayette to take on an improved Louisiana squad.
That's before they have to get into conference play with games against USF and Memphis. This schedule only ranks the 104th-toughest because of a handful of weaker AAC teams, but if Tulane can manage a 9-3 record in Sumrall's first season, that's a massive success.
It's just not good enough to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Best odds: +1200 via Caesars | Implied probability: 7.69%
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UTSA (+1400)
Similarly to Tulane, I think UTSA is getting a little too much respect for past accomplishments. Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach and has built the Road Runners the right way, but making the jump from the C-USA to the AAC clearly weighed on this roster last year.
In UTSA's final two seasons in the C-USA, it went 23-5 - which is why Liberty is in such a good spot - but it was just 9-4 in its first year in the AAC. Now, for the first time in four years, QB Frank Harris won't be behind center.
He's the best player in program history with over 11,000 passing yards, 2,000 rushing yards, and 121 total touchdowns. Replacing him is Owen McCown, son of former NFL QB Josh McCown.
McCown is a Colorado transfer who left when Deion Sanders brought his own luggage with him to Boulder. He struggled in a handful of starts for the Buffaloes and was up and down in his lone start for UTSA last season.
The loss of Harris is hard to quantify due to his leadership, especially when factoring in that UTSA is just 111th in returning production. This team lost a ton and desperately needs wide receiver De'Corian Clark to return to pre-injury form.
To make matters worse, the Road Runners play Texas State and Texas in their second and third game of the season, both of which are on the road. Their conference play isn't quite as hard as Memphis' and Tulane's, but they do have the Tigers and FAU.
I just don't see the value in backing these AAC teams that have hellish non-con schedules.
Best odds: +1400 via bet365 | Implied probability: 6.67%
Group of Five sleeper for the College Football Playoff
USF (+2000)
Time to contradict myself. If I had to bet on an AAC program to make the College Football Playoff, it would be USF. Sure, this might seem outlandish given the Bulls were 4-29 in the three seasons prior to Alex Golesh taking over last season, but South Florida really has something in QB Byrum Brown.
Brown is on the NFL radar and even ranks among the top five draft-eligible underclassmen QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft according to The Athletic's Dane Brugler. That's how impressive Brown was guiding Golesh's veer and shoot offense last season.
USF was 33rd in the country in points per game (31.9), and Brown threw for over 3,000 yards while leading the Bulls in rushing (809) and totalling 37 touchdowns. He was also one of just two G5 QBs to have an ADOT over 10.5 and an adjusted completion percentage of at least 72% last season - the other was Pratt.
The best quarterback in the AAC is Brown (sorry to Henigan heads), and supporting him is an experienced roster that ranks 17th in returning production and has the most returning starters in the conference with 18.
Among those returning starters are 1,000-yard receiver Sean Atkins, former blue-chip running back Nay'Quan Wright, and preseason All-AAC linebacker Jhalyn Shuler. Feeding further into why I'm so bullish on the Bulls is because they return seven of their 10 top offensive linemen, including four starters.
So just like the other AAC teams, they have a horrific non-conference schedule that includes Alabama and Miami on top of playing Tulane, Memphis, and FAU. But if I had to bet on one of them, this is the one, especially with a $10 winning bet paying a $200 profit.
Best odds: +2000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.76%
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