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Bowling Green vs. Toledo Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Who Will Thrive in Rain?

The Toledo Rockets have won 11 of the last 12 editions of this rivalry while also going 7-4-1 ATS over that span. Read on for our Bowling Green-Toledo picks and predictions.

Henry John

Last updated: September 11, 2024 2:44 PM EDT • 4 min read

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The Bowling Green Falcons visit the Toledo Rockets on Tuesday of Week 12 looking to snap the host's domination of this rivalry. Check out our Bowling Green-Toledo college football picks and predictions.

Week 12 of the college football season kicks off with a MACtion doubleheader on Tuesday night. Conference championship aspirations will be hanging in the balance as the Bowling Green Falcons take on the Toledo Rockets.

Check out our top Ohio vs. Ball State picks!

Bowling Green (3-6-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U) had its three-game win streak snapped last week with an ugly home loss to Kent State. Despite the setback, the Falcons remain just one game out of first place in the MAC East Division. A victory on Tuesday coupled with a win over first-place Ohio next week could be enough to send BGSU to the conference title game.

As for Toledo (4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U), last week’s win over Ball State clinched a trip to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game. The Rockets now have a two-game lead in the West Division and could play a factor in determining who they face in three weeks with a win in this matchup.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 12 matchup between Bowling Green and Toledo (odds via BetRivers and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 15, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Weather: 38 degrees, 85% chance of precipitation, 4-5-mph winds E

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds Analysis

Consensus odds list Toledo as a 16-point home favorite. That number is up from the opening line of 14.5 with 52% of the tickets backing the Rockets and accounting for 76% of the total handle on the spread.

The Over/Under opened at 51 and is down to 50 as of Tuesday morning. However, 67% of the tickets account for 85% of the handle on the Over.

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Bowling Green vs. Toledo Picks

Bowling Green vs. Toledo ATS Pick

Toledo -15 (-110) ★★

Although Toledo has already secured the MAC West Division, it’s tough to bet against the conference’s best team. This is especially true in this particular matchup, which figures to be very favorable for the Rockets.

Over the course of its three-game winning streak, Bowling Green didn’t allow more than 18 points in any game. The trouble with buying stock in the Falcons’ defense based on those results is that they came against three of the MAC’s weakest offensive teams. Sure enough, Bowling Green’s true colors showed up in last week’s 31-point loss to Kent State.

Just like in an earlier defeat to Buffalo, the Falcons showed no ability to stop the run last week. Toledo comes in averaging over 177 rushing yards per game as a team. As such, the Rockets’ backfield trio of Micah Kelly, Jacquez Stuart and Peny Boone should get the better of the BGSU defense.

Another factor that could work against Bowling Green in this spot is the weather. The high likelihood of rain during Tuesday’s game is more likely to hurt the Falcons’ pass-first offense rather than Toledo’s dual-threat attack.

Bowling Green vs. Toledo O/U Pick

Under 50.5 (-109) ★★

Given how favorable this matchup is expected to be for the Toledo ground game, it may seem counterproductive to recommend playing the total to the Under. That said, there are a few compelling arguments to consider.

First off, bettors are once again advised to factor the weather forecast into their handicap. The steady presence of rain throughout the night will likely result in both teams running the football more frequently.

Of course, a greater dose of run plays will keep the game clock running and shorten the game. Both teams come in ranked in the bottom half of college football in total offensive plays run per game.

In addition, it’s impossible to trust the Bowling Green offense to score much of anything on a given week. The Falcons rank 109th out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency and have been held to 17 points or fewer in four of their six conference games to date.

It could prove beneficial to wait to bet the Under until closer to kickoff, as there’s a real possibility that the line continues to creep up given the lopsided ticket and handle action.

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Prop Pick

Dequan Finn Under 51.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★

Taking the Under on 51.5 rushing yards for Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn also runs contrary to the overall handicap that favors the Rockets’ rushing attack in this matchup. The thing bettors have to question is how many carries Finn himself will see on Tuesday.

To date, Finn has surpassed this rushing yardage prop in six of nine games. However, last week he only rushed eight times for 10 total yards, by far his lowest output of the season.

It must be noted that Finn missed Toledo’s game two weeks ago entirely due to a shoulder injury. Having already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game, one has to assume that the Rockets will be even more cautious about exposing their star QB to unnecessary hits.

Where to Bet on Bowling Green vs. Toledo

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Bowling Green vs. Toledo picks made 11/14/2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.