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Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide in the second half at Bryant Denny Stadium as we look at our Alabama-Mississippi State prediction.
Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide in the second half at Bryant Denny Stadium. Photo by Marvin Gentry/Getty Images /AFP.

Our prediction for the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs game is based on the college football odds provided by our best sports betting apps. We're analyzing whether Alabama can cover the spread as a significant road favorite at Davis Wade Stadium in Saturday night’s marquee matchup.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have dropped back-to-back games against SEC opponents and are substantial underdogs at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5.

Alabama secured a 24-10 victory in an SEC West matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels last Saturday, but this version of the Crimson Tide hasn’t shown the same level of dominance as in previous years. Unless significant changes occur, there is no straightforward path for ‘Bama’s offense to run up the score against Mississippi State under the Saturday night lights at Davis Wade Stadium.

Here is our best Alabama-Mississippi State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction: Week 5

Mississippi State +14.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Even after Nick Saban named Jalen Milroe the starter following a drawn-out quarterback battle, Alabama’s offense still appeared to be working out some of the kinks during a Week 4 24-10 win over Ole Miss.

A road environment in Starkville doesn’t strike me as the ideal locale for experimentation, but that’s the circumstances the Crimson Tide will face in Cowbell Country now. Although I’m not anticipating Alabama slipping up and losing outright for the second time in 2023, I can see a scenario in which Mississippi State stays in this game for longer than the sportsbooks are anticipating.

Will Rogers fell woefully flat against LSU during his team’s real test of the season, but he battled back to throw for 482 yards at South Carolina last week. Alabama’s defense is elite while ranking eighth in the FBS in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Tide allowed 34 points and over 350 passing yards to Quinn Ewers and Texas.

If Rogers can tap into even a portion of that blueprint to get the Bulldogs to 17 points, that could keep Mississippi State within this inflated spread. After scoring just 17 points at South Florida, Alabama’s offense (which ranks 60th in adjusted efficiency) hasn’t shown the ability to operate effectively during road games, and Starkville will be ready on Saturday night.

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Alabama vs. Mississippi State best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Mississippi State +14.5Mississippi State +14.5Mississippi State +14.5Mississippi State +14.5Mississippi State +14.5

There’s really no advantage to be gained while shopping yet, as each of our best sportsbooks list Mississippi State at +14.5 with standard -110 odds.

The opening line of Alabama -13.5 would not have been as tempting to fade, but we can’t ignore Mississippi State as a home underdog of greater than two touchdowns. It’s a three-star recommendation at this price, but it’s probably off of our betting slip at +13 or lower.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds

Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds analysis

Alabama opened as a 13.5-point road favorite, and that line has increased across the key 14-point threshold to -14.5 at our best sports betting sites. The Tide has is generating 83% of the spread bets for this matchup.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 50.5 and has fallen to between 46.5 and 47.5 across our best live betting sites. The majority of wagers have been placed on the Over after that early line movement.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET
  • Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 77 Degrees, 5 mph winds, 0% Precipitation

Alabama-Mississippi State prediction made Thursday at 4:00 p.m. ET.

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