Oilers Take Huge Action to Win Stanley Cup

A bettor at DraftKings Sportsbook placed a $110K wager on the Edmonton Oilers to win The Stanley Cup at +3000 odds. The total payout would be $4.51 million.

https://twitter.com/DKSportsbook/status/1494432739654881284

There’s lots of reason for optimism, too.

Edmonton is 4-0 since its coaching change from Dave Tippett to Jay Woodcroft, and the Oilers have arguably the best one-two punch in the league with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The duo have won the Art Ross Trophy in four of the past five years, and the Hart Memorial Trophy in three of the past five, after all.

Plus, reclamation project Evander Kane has fit right in on McDavid’s flank with four goals and four assists through nine games.

The numbers check out over the past four games, too.

Edmonton has 58.8 Corsi For percentage with 3.38 expected goals and just 2.35 expected goals against at five-on-five. Prior to coaching change, the Oilers sported 52.3, 2.51 and 2.41 marks.

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Of course, a four-game sample shouldn’t carry significant weight. It shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either, though. Especially considering the high-end talent and potentially strong supporting cast on the roster.

And that’s just it. Does Edmonton have the secondary scoring to make a postseason run?

When McDavid and Draisaitl are both watching from the bench, the Oilers have been outscored 262-137 over the past three seasons, which includes a minus-32 goal differential this year.

See Also: NHL Futures: Looking for Value in Hart Trophy Race

Onto the elephant in the room. 

Edmonton needs goaltending help.

The Oilers have the 10th lowest team save percentage for the season, and it’s difficult to envision 40-year-old Mike Smith putting the team on his shoulders with 34 remaining regular season games and then at least 16 postseason tilts.

Unfortunately for Edmonton, the defense corps isn’t exactly a who’s who of Norris Trophy candidates, either. So, it’s difficult to pinpoint which position needs to be addressed more. 

The numbers hint it’s goaltending. 

The Oilers have allowed the 10th most five-on-five goals in the league despite ranking 13th in expected goals against. Additionally, after having the ninth best penalty-kill percentage last year, the Oilers sport a 23rd-ranked 77.1 percentage this season. 

What shouldn’t be overlooked is the potential to hedge out a profit. Edmonton has the starpower to win multiple rounds, and the Oilers should be more difficult to play against in the spring. 

Backing the Oilers at long odds could prove to be a solid futures bet, especially if this four-game winning streak is a sign of things to come.

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