NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt the Favorite in Relatively Open Field

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is the consensus favorite for National League MVP as the major leagues hit the All-Star break. However, there are quite a few viable candidates in the National League, enough that Goldschmidt will have to remain highly productive if he is going to hold off any challengers.

Goldschmidt’s teammate, Nolan Arenado, leads the National League in FanGraphs WAR, at 4.6. There are also seven players within one WAR of the leader, so it feels like there is room for someone to put together a strong finish to claim the NL MVP. Maybe that person is Paul Goldschmidt, but it might be someone else, too.

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NL MVP Odds

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At the All-Star break, here is a look at the top contenders for the National League MVP:

Paul Goldschmidt

The 34-year-old Cardinals first baseman has always been a productive hitter but his first few seasons in St. Louis suggested that decline might be starting. However, this season has been as productive as any season in his career, and his slash line of .330/.414/.590 leads the National League in all three categories.

Mix in 20 home runs, a 4.5 FanGraphs WAR, plus leading a team that is battling for the NL Central lead and Goldschmidt is an entirely worthy MVP favorite.

Manny Machado

From the moment that shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was injured, there was an opportunity for Machado, the Padres third baseman, to become the leader of a contending San Diego team.

Machado has delivered 15 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a slash line of .303/.377/.513 while providing outstanding defense at the hot corner. Machado’s 4.4 fWAR is already his highest since 2018 and keeping him as the top challenger to Goldschmidt.

Pete Alonso

Although his all-around game is not as strong as some other contenders, the power-hitting Mets first baseman does have 24 home runs and 78 RBI in 92 games. Those are the kind of numbers that will get noticed, especially when he is the top offensive contributor on a division leader.

Alonso’s slash line of .265/.339/.517 and 2.0 fWAR is not typical of an MVP, but if he hits 45+ home runs for a strong Mets squad, Alonso could hang around in the race.

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Mookie Betts

It can be difficult to stand out among the stars in the Dodgers lineup, but Betts is productive enough that he can remain a contender. Even though he has played just 73 games, Betts has scored 63 runs, hit 20 home runs, and has a slash line of .265/.340/.523 on his way to earning 3.3 fWAR. All of which is very good, but not quite in range for MVP yet.

Freddie Freeman

Moving to the Dodgers has not diminished Freeman’s production, though he did have just three home runs in his first 58 games.

He has slugged nine home runs in 32 games since and the 2020 NL MVP has a slash line of .321/.397/.530, with an fWAR of 4.2. That is good enough to keep him in the MVP hunt, but also suggests that his performance to this point could rank him ahead of Betts.

Austin Riley

A serious power threat after belting 33 home runs last season, the Braves third baseman has taken it up a notch or two this season mashing 27 home runs in 92 games. Riley has a slash line of .285/.348/.575 and has accumulated 3.6 fWAR.

Like Freeman, Riley gives back some value defensively, and that could be a differentiating factor at the end of the evaluation.

Trea Turner

Turner is one of the most productive players in baseball when he’s healthy. He has contributed 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases to the Dodgers attack this season, slashing .306/.354/.493, on his way to a tidy 3.8 fWAR.

As is the case with Betts and Freeman, Turner has the battle of trying to stand out on a powerhouse team.

Kyle Schwarber

Since June 1, the Phillies outfielder has crushed 18 home runs in 42 games, giving him a National League-leading 29 home runs for the season. With Bryce Harper hurt and the Phillies continuing to win, Schwarber is getting some of the credit.

He has a .208 batting average, along with a .317 OBP, and .503 SLG. Even if batting average is not considered that important, it’s hard to imagine the National League MVP hitting .208 and Schwarber’s 1.9 fWAR is not in MVP range.

Nolan Arenado

The Cardinals third baseman has finished in the top six of NL MVP voting four times in his career and a productive bat combined with an elite glove will keep a guy in that discussion.

This season, Arenado has 18 home runs and a slash line of .293/.359/.526. When combined with his defensive prowess, Arenado has accrued 4.6 fWAR so, on statistical merit, he probably deserves to be closer to the top of this list of favorites.

Dansby Swanson

Atlanta’s shortstop is having the best season of his career, producing 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases while slashing .294/.353/.481. Like Arenado, Swanson’s defensive play has been a difference maker this season, helping him earn 4.3 fWAR.

While Goldschmidt is a deserving favorite at this point of the season, there are enough viable contenders like Swanson, Arenado, and Alonso chasing him that there could be some potential value on the board.

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