NHL Betting Trends: Vezina Favorite Igor Shesterkin Makes Rangers A Stanley Cup Threat

As the National Hockey League heads into the final few days of the regular season, betting trends are emerging for the postseason and one of the more notable trends is that, at BetMGM, the New York Rangers are drawing a lot of interest.

When it comes to Stanley Cup odds, the Colorado Avalanche are favorites, priced at +350, drawing 25.1% of the tickets and 32.0% of the handle at BetMGM. The Florida Panthers have the next shortest odds, at +550, bringing in 8.6% of the tickets and 8.6% of the handle.

Neither of those is surprising as the Panthers and Avalanche are first and second, respectively, in the overall standings.

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The team bringing in the third largest handle for the Stanley Cup, though, is the New York Rangers, who hold second place in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers have pulled 6.0% of the wagers and 8.0% of the money wagered on the Stanley Cup at BetMGM, but the Rangers optimism is even more dramatic when it comes to winning the Eastern Conference.

Although the Rangers are priced at +800 to win the Eastern Conference, which is tied for fifth shortest odds on the board, the Blueshirts are on 27.4% of the tickets for 32.9% of the handle, both of which are easily the highest percentages.

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There is legitimate reason to be optimistic about the Rangers. First, it does appear that the path out of the Metropolitan Division is more favorable than going through the Atlantic Division. For the first time ever, all eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference have recorded at least 100 points, but the Atlantic Division has two teams, the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs, over 110 points with the Tampa Bay Lightning, sitting at 108 points through 80 games, likely to get there. So, while the path through the Metropolitan may not be easy, it does appear to be more favorable for the Rangers, who will face either the Pittsburgh Penguins or Washington Capitals in the first round.

A second reason to be optimistic about the Rangers is that they have the best goaltender in the league this season. Igor Shesterkin has long been the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender and goaltending can have a dramatic impact on a team’s playoff fortunes. Shesterkin has a league-leading .935 save percentage and, per Natural Stat Trick, has a league-leading 39.86 Goals Saved Above Expected.

Shesterkin is -4000 to win the Vezina Trophy at FanDuel.

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One more reason for the Rangers to hold some hope for the postseason is that, while they were a poor puck possession team early in the season, leaning heavily on the outstanding play of Shesterkin, they legitimately improved later in the season. Adding forwards Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp prior to the trade deadline helped improve the club’s forward depth.

Prior to the deadline, the Rangers had controlled 45.4% of score-and-venue-adjusted 5v5 shot attempts and 45.6% of expected goals, numbers not consistent with their place in the standings. Again, it pays to have a great goaltender. However, since the trade deadline, the Rangers are controlling 54.9% of the score-and-venue-adjusted 5v5 shot attempts and 53.2% of the expected goals (per Natural Stat Trick), which looks a lot more like the underlying numbers one would expect from a contending team.

The path to the Stanley Cup requires some good luck for any team, but a team that consistently wins the shot battle and has outstanding goaltending has a chance, which explains why the New York Rangers are drawing so much interest at BetMGM. Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.