California Inching Toward Improbable Legal Sports Betting Platform

The clock is ticking on California's attempt to legalize sports betting in 2024, but there is still a chance that residents will have access to our best sports betting sites before the dust settles.

November 5, 2024, is election day in the United States. Proponents of a legal California sports betting platform are hoping that citizens won't only be voting on the next President but also the possible creation of a mobile and retail legal sports wagering platform for the state.

The California Attorney General kicked off 2024 with two legal sports betting measures that could appear on the 2024 election ballot. Both have significant hills to climb, but two summaries by the AG pave the way for backers of such a plan to gather the 874,641 signatures necessary to take the next step toward having sports betting initiatives appear on the November ballot.

The ballot measures

Initiative 23-0030 Amendment 1 and Initiative 23-0031 have been given the go-ahead by the California Attorney General to proceed to the signature-gathering phase. It is expected that one — or both — proposals will need 1 million signatures even to be considered for the November election.

Initiative 23-0030 Amendment 1 is spearheaded by Kasey Thompson, a proclaimed "tech bro" hoping to find some common ground between proponents of legal sports betting in the Golden State and the Native American tribes that not only call California home but also hold a virtual monopoly over legalized gambling in the state. 

It would pave the way for mobile sports betting, retail sports wagering, and online casino gaming, which includes roulette and dice games. All activities would take place on tribal lands.

Under Initiative 23-0030 Amendment 1, tribes would pay 1% to the state for regulatory costs. They would mandate 25% of revenues to tribes in the state that wish not to participate in a legal gambling platform.

In his summary, the AG cited: “increased state revenues that could reach into the tens of millions of dollars annually, depending on how the measure is implemented and legally interpreted.”

Initiative 23-0031

Initiative 23-0031 is a proposal also tied to Thompson's plan but is much shorter in detail. It, too, would authorize online sports betting on tribal lands, but it doesn't go into detail about the financial benefits of such a platform for the state.

It simply says: “No immediate fiscal effects on the state and local governments as the Legislature would be allowed—but not required—to authorize sports wagering. If the Legislature authorizes sports wagering, uncertain increase in state and local government costs and revenues depending on various factors including the specific regulatory and other requirements adopted.”

Initiative 23-0031 is viewed as a backup plan, as Thompson has stated that proponents would only move forward with one of the two proposals.

Obstacles

The California Nations Indian Gaming Association has vehemently opposed any legal sports betting platform for California. The Association quashed all attempts to have the legal sports betting question appear on the 2022 ballot and has signaled that it will do the same in 2024.

In the end, 2022's Prop 26 and Prop 27 failed miserably with polls, each gaining less than 20% support, despite over $600 million being spent on attempts to push their initiatives forward.

CNIGA Chairman James Siva went on record last year with a statement about the two legal sports betting proposals that have the potential to change the legal sports betting landscape in the Golden State. 

“The entire effort surrounding these initiatives was handled abhorrently by the initiative sponsors. It is hard not to be offended when listening to these individuals speak. This is another example of outside influences trying to divide and conquer Indian tribes. We will not let history repeat itself,” he said.

Wording presents a problem too

The language in the two hopeful legal sports betting proposals for California could also pose a problem for proponents as it is seen as vague and convoluted for not only those who will sign onto the plans but also the voting public, which could ultimately decide the fate of legal sports betting in California. 

According to Brendan Bussmann, a consultant with Las Vegas-based firm B Global Advisors: “The description is as clear as mud. And if you think voters are going to read that and understand what it does, then good luck with that.”

What's next?

The signature-gathering process will start now that the California AG has weighed in. Thompson has already acknowledged that his group has hired what he calls “the best signature-gathering company” in his state to get the petition process over the finish line. Thompson himself has committed $25 million toward the signature-gathering procedure.

The deadline to meet the minimum signature goal of 874,641 comes in June, giving advocates of legal sports betting in the Golden State just six months to gather the necessary names.

Thompson's group has the native American tribes in California to contend with and a short timeline to gain the necessary support. As mentioned, it will be an uphill climb.

In December, in a letter to Thompson, the tribes wrote: “We are hereby notifying you of the strong opposition from more than half of California tribal nations to these offensive proposals that masquerade as tribal initiatives. Again, we expect you will keep your word and urge you to abandon these proposals without delay.”

This lack of tribal support could kill the measure before any meaningful progress is seen.