EP36's Weekly Wankoff: Winston-Salem Open

[Brian891]

ep u think isner wins tho? tough long match for goffin yesterday. i dont know much about him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Absolutely. I don't think he will be able to handle his serve if it is "on"

[EaglesPhan36]

Getting a little late start on this one because of it starting today, but here we go.

Seed Report

1. Tsonga
Not sure if they removed all the fire hydrants from the city, but Tsonga took a wildcard to come here and that should mean he's at least looking to do a little damage. It's not going to be easy straight off with Baghdatis likely to be his 1st match. If he gets through that trick though, the semifinals look achievable with only Anderson and maybe Ryan Harrison [depending on his brain power this week] as potential ones to watch out for. Still, he's a clear cut above.
Prediction: Semifinals - potential to win the title.

2. Berdych
Berdych continued his rather tame campaign in Cincy, checking out in the 3rd round against Raonic. He has a cleaner route to a deep run this week, but that hasn't helped him much lately. He's another wildcard entry, so he obviously knows his game needs work. I don't see much trouble to the quarters & realistically he should be in the semis with minimal effort. But, I've been saying that for about three or four weeks.
Prediction: Semifinals - potential to lose in the quarters.

3. Isner
The defending champion has a very simple road to the quarters. Paire or Klizan first-up and then maybe a tricky second match with Falla if he makes it that far. The bottom of his draw has Benneteau and Troicki, neither of whom is in great form on this surface.
Prediction: Finals

4. Dolgopolov
Since his DC title, Dolgopolov has reverted to trash mode. He looked absolutely lost against Davydenko. He could face Lu first-up which could mean another early exit given Lu's decent form on hard courts lately. This is a very tough bracket he is in with a Nalbandian or Davydenko potentially along the way that would not be easy either. If he made it to the quarters, me might find Sam Querrey.
Prediction: 2nd round - potential to run to the quarters

5. Roddick
Health is the key question. Is Roddick past his back spasm issues from Cincinnati? Fortunately it's not a major injury, but it is still concerning that spasms crop up out of nowhere. Let's make a small assumption that Roddick is close to fit. He's likely going to get James Blake first up in an interesting match. Should he survive, the likes of Istomin and Darcis are in his draw to the quarters. He was good here last year and will be desperate for form.
Prediction: Quarterfinals

6. Granollers
Granollers predictable crashed out early in Cincy after a surprising Toronto run. He looks primed for an early upset with a tough draw.
Prediction: 2nd round

7.Querrey
A very negotiable draw for Querrey. Giraldo or ERV first up. Lopez is the other seed on the road to the quarters, but he looked disinterested in Cincinnati. He's got some work to do in the other part of the bracket with Nalbandian, Davydenko, Lu and Dolgopolov around - but I do like his potential this week. He's been in good form during the US Open series, only losing to the cream of the crop.
Prediction: Finals

8. Benneteau
Benneteau was terrible in Cincinnati, so he has to turn it around quick. Before you write him off, remember has points to defend as after making the finals last year. I think perhaps that had more with him deciding not to worry about Cincy last week. His draw isn't great, but he has winnable matches. Kubot or Robredo first. A Troicki or Goffin maybe later on. If he gets to the quarters, it could be a rematch of last year's final with Isner.
Prediction: 3rd round - potential for a run to the quarters.


Upset Alerts
Gilles Muller (1st round) Match-up TBD
Harrison/Soeda over Granollers (2nd Round)
Falla over Melzer (2nd Round)
Young over Mayer (1st Round) SUPER SERIAL! By retirement.
Lu over Dolgopolov (2nd Round)

Hey yo! 4 for 4 on predicting semifinalists this week. Again for me, being able to do this really provides some clarity to trying to bet a tournament and hopefully helps you guys out some. Certainly doesn't make me avoid losses, but certainly seems to be keeping me from being quite the idiot I was earlier this season.

If you like Tsonga tomorrow, check out my thread & try to win my points!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/1855642-ep36s-winston-salem-line-day.html

Friday, August 24th
Isner +120
Querrey +155


Keeping right in line with the original prediction of Isner v. Querrey in the final. May or may not come to fruition, but I think taking both dogs tomorrow should at least yield some profit if you bet an even amount on both. Firmly believe one of them, if not both, will win.

[Brian891]

nicely done!! ur insight on isner and querrey and a tsonga win over stak made me a ton this week. gonna sit back and enjoy and get ready for us open. thanks as always for the advice.

[Brian891]

not sure if u know or not, but is soderling likely done? the mono has made him pretty weak and i know its quite a body recovery process for the disease. hope he can come back. always liked him. saw him play on a side court in toronto. really nice guy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Haven't heard much about Soderling in months. Looked at his Twitter. He still wants to play from the sound of it. Maybe if it goes weel, back on tour next year?

[ProbablyNotSeth]

What do you think about o9½ -210 first set? I mean I think with two big players it's going to be either a tie-breaker or 7-5; but do you thing either has the chance to win 6-3?

[EaglesPhan36]

Assume you are talking Tsonga-Isner? I donkt know, look @ the track record between them ... 1st set not always close. Lot of chalk for that. At least parlay with something if you like it. Careful with motivation again with the non Americans. Schedule isn't set yet for days of play for the US Open, but you have to wonder if they wouldn't rather get to NY and get settled. Again to me, Isner did this tourney last year so he knows what to do and I think Querrey is always going to go for it when he has a title chance.

[ProbablyNotSeth]

Yeah, I meant Tsonga-Isner. i ended up parlaying with a soccer game, but I'm throwing money on Isner just in-case. Thanks for the info!

[EaglesPhan36]

TB2 doing what The Big Tie Break does. Dude is still deadly in tie breaks and the split dog theory will work regardless of the outcome of the next one.

[riffraff24]

What do you think of the bird/isner match EP?

[Wilfred]

I think he's on Isner considering he's taking +120 bets on Berdych

[EaglesPhan36]

Yes, Isner for me today.

[illcrushem]

I'm with you EP, just got in at +122

[EaglesPhan36]

TB2 does it again. Good momentum builder again for Isner. Maybe this year he can carry it into the US Open where he's in a pretty open quarter. Have to start researching the draw. See you kids for the Open!