EP36's Weekly Wankoff: Winston-Salem Open

in:extremis · 08-21-12, 10:03 AM

EP what about Niemenen against Becker? Not sure why Niemenen is the dog, thinking of hitting it.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-21-12, 10:25 AM

Nieminen has been terrible for about four months. Not really sure why you would want to start backing him now. 2-8 in his last ten and generally the surface doesn't really do a ton for him. Becker is kind of in the same boat surface wise, but he at least has a little form. Another one where I don't see great confidence in taking either guy.

Demonata · 08-21-12, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Nieminen has been terrible for about four months. Not really sure why you would want to start backing him now. 2-8 in his last ten and generally the surface doesn't really do a ton for him. Becker is kind of in the same boat surface wise, but he at least has a little form. Another one where I don't see great confidence in taking either guy.

What about the Melzer match?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-21-12, 10:43 AM

McClune has been hot, but still hasn't beaten a name per say in the last couple weeks. Melzer is just kind of flopping around right now without direction. He's been pretty poor on this surface for the past year. Not sure if McClune is up to beating a veteran the likes of Melzer even if he's not in great form ... wouldn't pay more Melzer even in a parlay, but would want at least +4 for McClune and he's only +3.5. Tough call.

in:extremis · 08-21-12, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Nieminen has been terrible for about four months. Not really sure why you would want to start backing him now. 2-8 in his last ten and generally the surface doesn't really do a ton for him. Becker is kind of in the same boat surface wise, but he at least has a little form. Another one where I don't see great confidence in taking either guy.

Both players are in poor form, however Nieminen took Becker out 3 from 3 on hard courts in 2010. Also, the last tournament Nieminen won was in Sydney the lead up to the Australian Open, His price has come down since I last posted, some heavy money must have gone his way. I'm taking the risk on Nieminen. GL

Demonata · 08-21-12, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

McClune has been hot, but still hasn't beaten a name per say in the last couple weeks. Melzer is just kind of flopping around right now without direction. He's been pretty poor on this surface for the past year. Not sure if McClune is up to beating a veteran the likes of Melzer even if he's not in great form ... wouldn't pay more Melzer even in a parlay, but would want at least +4 for McClune and he's only +3.5. Tough call.

Thanks man.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-21-12, 11:07 AM

If you're feeling froggy ...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/1855642-ep36s-winston-salem-line-day.html

riffraff24 · 08-21-12, 12:23 PM

Any thoughts on the Istomin match in a bit EP? Initially liked Istomin but Darcis destroyed Malisse and needs to win here for points. Thinking Darcis +3 or maybe the over...

riffraff24 · 08-21-12, 01:50 PM

Istomin tanking it big time. Gonna break even. Took both the Over and Darcis +3...

Shifty107 · 08-21-12, 06:23 PM

What do u think of Harrison EP. Got him as the last leg of a pretty big parlay but not sure whether I want to hedge.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-21-12, 09:36 PM

Well hindsight is 20-20 bro, but I always stick to it ... if you're on the last leg of a parlay, you've got to hedge something. Harrison was just pathetic.

beermankirk · 08-21-12, 10:06 PM

How does John Isner lose to Melzer on Wednesday? He opened at -325

EaglesPhan36 · 08-21-12, 10:19 PM

He won't IMO. Definite parlay includer.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 08:14 AM

Wednesday, August 22nd
Parlay: Roddick + Isner (-127)
Dolgopolov -120
Gulbis +110 *0.5 unit

Brian891 · 08-22-12, 08:15 AM

i know u like isner today ep but still confident in querrey? he looked good against giraldo. I wanna put sam in parlays but i get squeamish cuz lopez has never and beat him in us albeit not when sam was playing like this. lemme know your opinion if u like. thanks.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 08:15 AM

I think Querrey will take that. You can't read much into Lopez beating a wanker like Young. Lopez' motivation is always questionable. Sam's is not during the US Open series.

Allen24 · 08-22-12, 08:46 AM

get risky and do roddick sam and Dolgopolov for real good odds

zoo youk · 08-22-12, 09:27 AM

wow I am really surprised your backing Roddick with the outings he has been having..Darcis must be AWFUL

shimeon40 · 08-22-12, 10:00 AM

Thanks EP for gulbis..the enigma lopez..wtf is he going to today EP?..you know lopez,i know lopez..wtf is the clown going to dish up today?..fish made a mess of his serve..big odds though..maybe he'll have a go

bruceBRUCEbruce · 08-22-12, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Allen24

get risky and do roddick sam and Dolgopolov for real good odds

I may throw Isner in there for a little parlay as well. which one's gonna blow it?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 10:38 AM

I just don't think he cares about this time of the year. His track record at the US hard courts in the summer is pretty poor over the years. I think his 1st match just offered him the luxury of f-ing around and being able to win. When he has to exert himself more today, we'll see.

riffraff24 · 08-22-12, 12:39 PM

Looks like heavy juice coming in for Nalbandian...But like you've said multiple times; line movement in Tennis means nothing.

Hangoverblack · 08-22-12, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Looks like heavy juice coming in for Nalbandian...But like you've said multiple times; line movement in Tennis means nothing.

Bummer, cause I just loaded the portfolio with Dolgo stock. Surprised bettors betting fat Dave in this spot.

Brian891 · 08-22-12, 01:21 PM

ep, berdych or tsonga gun to your head? i know u have confidence that tsonga came to play, but his line is plummeting again. i would think he would destroy stak in normal circumstances.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 01:40 PM

Based on Berdych this season, I'd sure like Tsonga a ton better. Neither should come close to losing, but I think Tsonga would really have to suck to lose to Stakhovsky. Nieminen while not great on this surface or of late in general is crafy enough to take advantage of Berdych if he plays a C-level game.

Brian891 · 08-22-12, 01:41 PM

thanks ep. lastly, ur thoughts on goffin today vs kubot? love some insight. threw u a few pts.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 01:55 PM

Seems fairly even. Both had some service issues last round, but fought through against good opponents. Goffin has the better all-around game, but with his serve still being weak he is leaving the door open for guys to take him out. I think Kubot has a chance to win as a result. It's really tough to call because I could see any result as not being shocking in this one. Generally, I'd expect a competitive match.

Brian891 · 08-22-12, 02:09 PM

i laid a lil on tsonga. he dropped to -450 for some reason. good parlay material with baseball. if he wins (when he wins) ill throw u more points.

Hangoverblack · 08-22-12, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

Bummer, cause I just loaded the portfolio with Dolgo stock. Surprised bettors betting fat Dave in this spot.

Fat Dave looked exactly that today. Dolgo in two easy sets. Another example where steam on a player late has cursed him to lose. Ill take it!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-22-12, 02:29 PM

So much for Andy this week. Two shitty tie breakers and he's done. So be it.

shimeon40 · 08-22-12, 03:16 PM

Why did i back lopez

..he's a clown and i know he's a clown...

Brian891 · 08-22-12, 03:22 PM

damn tsonga. had chance to break and serve for first set and ate it. anyone watchin? seems like he might not care to advance.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-23-12, 10:45 AM

Not a big day today, just one to try.

Darcis +348 (0.5 unit)
Berdych could get revenge for losing to him in the Olympics, but it's 2 for 2 for Darcis beating the Berd Man, so perhaps it is just his game that troubles him some. Handicap on this one of +4 is probably a rock solid conservative wager. Berdych got a couple confidence boosters this week and it is that time of a pre-Slam tourney where guys may start weighing their options on whether or not they want rest or to keep playing.

in:extremis · 08-23-12, 10:49 AM

Best bet of the quarter finals? Are we sticking with Dolgopolov?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-23-12, 11:12 AM

Tough round. You could see some of the big names i.e. Berdych & Tsonga decide that they have done enough to gain confidence and check out at this stage or decide they want a trophy. Guys whose desire I don't question are Querrey who always plays hard during the US Open hard court series & Isner who is defending the title. Doesn't mean they win, but expect their best efforts for the day whatever that may be. I think the semis are a better round to bet because the guys who want it are going to be there at that point.