LF Tennis Predictions (2012)

**benandjerry** · 07-10-12, 07:07 AM

Lou, what do you think about Matosevic-Levine? Didnt think Matosevic would be that big of a dog...

**Altarath** · 07-10-12, 07:51 AM

Anyone know why Paire is playing Schwank instead of Petzschner?

Nvm found out Petzschner withdrawed..

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 09:08 AM

Bautista is that kind of player... arrrrrghhh. but you deserve to loose, if you are 5-2 on second set, and pufff.... 6-7 ...

**dangerfish** · 07-10-12, 09:08 AM

Match: Bautista vs Minar
Pick: Bautista
Odd: 1.70 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating

Bautista 113.54
Minar 112.70

Lou--considering the price and these player ratings wouldn't this be either a small bet on Minar or a pass? At 1.70 and a player differential of less than 1 point where is the value?

**jimm246** · 07-10-12, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by dangerfish

Match: Bautista vs Minar
Pick: Bautista
Odd: 1.70 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating

Bautista 113.54
Minar 112.70

Lou--considering the price and these player ratings wouldn't this be either a small bet on Minar or a pass? At 1.70 and a player differential of less than 1 point where is the value?

Forget the value it is all about the win.

**dangerfish** · 07-10-12, 09:22 AM

Forget the value it is all about the win.

This is incorrect. Lou is fantastic I think he really has an excellent player rating system and he will probably make lots of money if he is bankrolled well and runs halfway decent but understanding the relationship between price and player value is crucial and perhaps an area that he can improve.

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 09:25 AM

Tournament: Umag
Match: Vasselin vs Odesnik
Pick: Odesnik +2.5 games
Odd: 2.12 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
Vasselin 111.42
Odesnik 125.22

GL

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by dangerfish

Forget the value it is all about the win.

This is incorrect. Lou is fantastic I think he really has an excellent player rating system and he will probably make lots of money if he is bankrolled well and runs halfway decent but understanding the relationship between price and player value is crucial and perhaps an area that he can improve.

I think in these case you are right.
But, I just tried to hit that odd, also if there were no much value because I tought Bautista, from SPAIN, CLAY-LAND, could play better of the other one.
But once again, lack of mental power, and I have to sorry again with you all for that silly call :/

**jimm246** · 07-10-12, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by dangerfish

Forget the value it is all about the win.

This is incorrect. Lou is fantastic I think he really has an excellent player rating system and he will probably make lots of money if he is bankrolled well and runs halfway decent but understanding the relationship between price and player value is crucial and perhaps an area that he can improve.

Loufunk has guts. no guts no glory!

**msharris1428** · 07-10-12, 09:39 AM

Thanks again Lou for all the tips. It really helps to be able to see what other people are picking. What do you guys think of an Errani/Vinci parlay? Maybe throw in Goerges as well.

**dangerfish** · 07-10-12, 09:42 AM

Loufunk has guts. no guts no glory!

Huge fan of Lou, in fact nothing I hate more than waking up and seeing I am on opposite sides of a bet with him. I am trying to figure out if there is anyway to improve is all, I am trying to improve myself in process as well. Nothing derogatory intended with my comments. Btw I am on Levine today as my best play.

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 10:05 AM

Tournament: Umag
Match: Kavcic vs Veic
Pick: Kavcic
Odd: 2.16 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
Kavcic 131.45
Veic 127.74

GL

**benandjerry** · 07-10-12, 10:39 AM

I agree with what dangerfish is saying, you are doing phenomenal work in here, but there are a few low odds picks where the discrepancy between your ratings are so small you do question how much value they could hold. I'm with you on Kavcic here, GL!

**beefcake** · 07-10-12, 11:24 AM

Love Kavic here bro!! And good job on the picks!!

**beefcake** · 07-10-12, 11:29 AM

Kavic kicking A

**TheBeastMode** · 07-10-12, 12:40 PM

Nice call on Kavcic. I had a parlay going yesterday with Veic (last leg). Was going to hedge after I saw your post, but didn't get it in on time

but I did play Odesnik ML +165

**jimm246** · 07-10-12, 12:42 PM

Nice one Kavic. Thanks for the picks.

**Blax0r** · 07-10-12, 12:43 PM

The Kavcic pick is impressive; do you use challenger tourney data when compiling your ratings?

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 01:07 PM

Tournament: Newport
Match: Matosevic vs Levine
Pick: Levine
Odd: 1.53 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
Matosevic 119.16
Levine 125.74

**dangerfish** · 07-10-12, 01:22 PM

I would lay the games with Levine rather than taking that price.

**Hangoverblack** · 07-10-12, 01:39 PM

Vinci -205 looks solid. Revenge for the Italian at home.

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Blax0r

The Kavcic pick is impressive; do you use challenger tourney data when compiling your ratings?

I did not understand the question, sorry.
Do you mean if I consider also challenger or itf in my data to create ratings?

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 02:04 PM

Picks = 72
Won = 46
Lost = 25
Void = 0
Pending = 1 (Levine)
Winning % = +64.78%
Staked = 710.00 u
Won = 839.70 u
Profit = +129.70 u
ROI: +18.26%

**Blax0r** · 07-10-12, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by loufunk

I did not understand the question, sorry.
Do you mean if I consider also challenger or itf in my data to create ratings?

Yes, that's exactly what I meant; sorry for any confusion.

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Blax0r

Yes, that's exactly what I meant; sorry for any confusion.

so answer is yes

**mdfizzle** · 07-10-12, 02:55 PM

Awesome job Lou, is that likely it for today?

**Blax0r** · 07-10-12, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by loufunk

so answer is yes

Thanks!

**hougigo** · 07-10-12, 03:48 PM

Thoughts on Hewitt vs Posisil?
I really like Hewitt in this and -185 sounds like good value.
He should be game to win against Posisil IMO.... just looking for opinions

**Hangoverblack** · 07-10-12, 04:22 PM

I am on Popsisil. Coin flip when you factor motivation and form.

Take the +odds.

**hougigo** · 07-10-12, 04:45 PM

Went down to make a sandwhich... freaking food.
Every time I want to bet something, I miss it because I'm hungry... that's like the fifth time this week.
Damn I'm fat

**Altarath** · 07-10-12, 04:46 PM

Gotta say it once more, ur doing a great job with picks. Keep em coming man, they're much appreciated!

**jimm246** · 07-10-12, 05:08 PM

Thanks Lou!

**kobee24** · 07-10-12, 06:01 PM

Great job Lou, we're killin' em!

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 08:09 PM

Picks = 72
Won = 47
Lost = 25
Void = 0
Pending = 0
Winning % = +65.27%
Staked = 720.00 u
Won = 855.00 u
Profit = +135.00 u
ROI: +18.75%

**loufunk** · 07-10-12, 08:10 PM

Tournament: Stanford
Match: King vs Cirstea
Pick: King
Odd: 1.74 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
King 122.25
Cirstea 117.31

GL