Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

Two more plays to go up for the afternoon matches. I think Haas gets by a very struggling Donskoy this year. The other two players I think have a very good shot at winning their matches today. Might have a play to go up later, haven't decided yet.....



Play #5
Haas -440
Bedene -165

Total = apprx =103
1.0u / 0.96u


Play #6
Haas -440
Soeda -130

Total = apprx +110
1.0u / 1.1u

[Dmoneytx]

Looks like we had a rain out in Buenos Aires today. Matches to go on early tomm they said. I will hold the Bedene play for tomm's wagers. The rest should finish up today.

Also, HOW on earth did Soeda NOT win that first set????!!! He was UP 5-4 serving & couldn't hold serve to win the set. Then in the tiebreaker he was UP 6-3 with two serves on his raquet!!! He still couldn't win the tiebreaker. He lost 5 points in a row to lose that breaker 6-8. Wow, what a CHOKE by Go Soeda! Should not have expected more from a Challanger player. Dammit! What a choker.....

[Dmoneytx]

I got burned by my own rule last night. I said a few days ago, that I would NOT use any lines over around -700 anymore. So last night I only had Raonic left on 2 parlays, both at -1000 or higher. I deserved to lose those plays for making such a dumb decision. ANY player favored at over -1000 can STILL lose any day of the week. Fed did it. Nadal did it. Raonic did it. All within the past 10 days or less. And some of those were -2000 to -4000 or more. I had told myself to hedge the Sock play for only $50 to win $400 and just be done with it winning around 4 units either way more or less. So why didn't I??? Bec last night & all day yesterday I was sick. I ran a fever yesterday & went to bed before that match even started. I woke up all sweaty, breaking the fever, to see Raonic win the second set. I was so upset bec I forgot to throw the $50 on Sock, I just forgot with all my medicine I am taking for being sick. But at that point, I thought Raonic would prob win in 3 sets now, so I wasn't too upset (but I still would of lost the $50 to just be safe). Well, I fell asleep again, woke up and saw that Sock won. Raonic must of got broken at 5-5 in the 3rd set. Wow. To Jack Sock??? Bad move to take a -1000 (who loses anyways) and also to be so sick I couldn't get out of bed or see straight to hedge out for a great profit either way. Double fuk job last night for me. A GOOD day of wagers yesterday, with a decent profit, turned out to be a losing day bec Raonic can't beat a Jack Sock who has not done a damn thing all year long, period. But he beat Milos Raonic??? Ya, ok. Again, bad luck to not make the 4 units on that match period! And for taking a line over -700, dumb as shit. Never again, don't care who it is or who they are playing, never again.....

I am going to clean up the fuk job from yesterday & put out a few plays that should start in an hour or more. BOL to ev1!!!

[Hardcoar]

Good insight.

Hope you get well quickly!

While I agree generally you are correct, not all such lines are poor value. It depends on the situation.

[Dmoneytx]

Plays for 2/21:


Play #1
Simon -410
Cilic -495
Nishikori -500
Ferrer -600

Total = apprx +108
1.5u / 1.62u


Play #2
Simon -410
Nishikori -500
Ferrer -600
Almagro -1000

Total = apprx -110
1.5u / 1.36u

[Dmoneytx]

Good insight.

Hope you get well quickly!

While I agree generally you are correct, not all such lines are poor value. It depends on the situation.

Thanks Hard! I broke my fever last night, I feel so much better today it is not even funny. Gonna stay low so I make sure this crap is gone, still no tennis for me for the rest of the week. I need time off after the tment in San Antonio anyways, you should see my feet, LOL!!! Hope you have a good day

[Hardcoar]

I hope they're not worse than Daviiiiiiiiiiiiiid Chhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhimeno-Trrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrraveeeeeeeeeer's right ankle. :P

[Dmoneytx]

Is Gimeno Traver hurt??? He has Wawrinka today if they play bec of the rain, so that is gonna be TOUGH for him anyways. With a hurt ankle, that could be a blowout for Wawrinka maybe??? I didn't know if he had ankle issues. Do you know for sure???

[Hardcoar]

My bad. I was thinking of Ramirez-Hidalgo

[Dmoneytx]

Play #3
Del Potro -300 (should be a close one)
Almagro -1000
Ferrer -600
Duke, cbb -1000

Total = apprx -112
1.5u / 1.34u

[swissbank007]

YOU WROTE ABOUT WOZNIACKI////NO offense Swiss, but Woz is the biggest ball pusher there is! I have seen her play live & it is a JOKE! She loops balls back in play like my U14 and U16 good players. She pushes hard man. Can she play offense?? A little IMO. But her game is 95% defense and she pushes around 75% of the time. I am not kidding. And I play this sport at a very high level Swiss. I know the difference, big time. Is she good??? Of course. But she is def NOT a top 10 player in the world & I would hesitate to even put here in the top 20 IMO. Woz is definitely a pusher. When I saw her live, I thought......... I could play this chick tough, wouldn't surprise me if I made it a match (my fitness is good too ). BOL watching this push fest, LOL!!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY ANSWER/i played a bit high level tennis also!!!!......i was a top 20 swiss junior....but it was a loooooooooooog time ago!!! she is not the biggest ball pusher...she is the BEST ball pusher which is different in my opinion.....i know she is a "defense player"!!! and soo what??? she is soooo good at what she does and i think its her quality!!....knowing if you can beat her now?i dont know your exact level but i dont think you can .....a french player i know who where ranked minus 15(in France its mean he had no atp points but just under that...i wd say around NCAA first division level) said he could beat Navratilova when she was at her top...he was wrong!!!....before thinking about beating WOZ, you think 100% you can beat a top NCAA division 1 woman? when i used to live in Boston, i used to practice with the MIT team(its not division 1 i know!!!!) and had the chance to hit balls with some girls from Harvard team and USC team and it was already very very good level of tennis and those girls wd lose 6-1/ 6-1 against WOZ!!!i really dont argue with you in a bad way DMO!!! its just interesting talking!!!!

[jinxpro13]

u think ne chance fabio loses to trungelleti dmoney?

[Dmoneytx]

I have to jump on this line now before it has no value. The Blake/Sock match has gone from Blake -200 to now -160. I can see this being around -140 or lower at match time. I am taking Sock now while he is still good plus money & linking him with Del Potro. I am taking a shot here to see if Del Potro can win his match today, making Sock a +240 coin flip for me (I actually think Sock will face only a few break points tonight, while Blake will face more, just my opinion). It's worth 1 unit at least I think.....


Play #4
Sock +130
Del Potro -300
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx +241
1.0u / 2.41u

[Dmoneytx]

u think ne chance fabio loses to trungelleti dmoney?

I HATE betting on Fognini! He just bothers me for some reason. He is SO lazy on the court! He is more concerned with his appearance than his game half the time, I have seen it with my own eyes. Bec of that, I rarely take him, no matter who he plays. I just think he could give SO much more effort on the court. Again, my opinoin.

I think his match already started early today bec of the rain yest. He is playing a qualifier, who you always have to be weary of when they go thru qualies and get a lot of match time under themselves. Should he win??? Yes. Will he??? Who the hell knows, I didn't touch that match bec a -400 to me on Fognini is absurd! I bet this is a long fought, hard match and if he wins, he barely pulls it out. Just my two cents on Fagnini. And yes, I did spell that the way I intended, LOL!!!

If you took him, good luck, I'm pulling for ya!!!

[swissbank007]

one thing that really surprise me about Fognini is that he is a very good double player!!!! for me its a mystery!!!

[Dmoneytx]

YOU WROTE ABOUT WOZNIACKI////NO offense Swiss, but Woz is the biggest ball pusher there is! I have seen her play live & it is a JOKE! She loops balls back in play like my U14 and U16 good players. She pushes hard man. Can she play offense?? A little IMO. But her game is 95% defense and she pushes around 75% of the time. I am not kidding. And I play this sport at a very high level Swiss. I know the difference, big time. Is she good??? Of course. But she is def NOT a top 10 player in the world & I would hesitate to even put here in the top 20 IMO. Woz is definitely a pusher. When I saw her live, I thought......... I could play this chick tough, wouldn't surprise me if I made it a match (my fitness is good too ). BOL watching this push fest, LOL!!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY ANSWER/i played a bit high level tennis also!!!!......i was a top 20 swiss junior....but it was a loooooooooooog time ago!!! she is not the biggest ball pusher...she is the BEST ball pusher which is different in my opinion.....i know she is a "defense player"!!! and soo what??? she is soooo good at what she does and i think its her quality!!....knowing if you can beat her now?i dont know your exact level but i dont think you can .....a french player i know who where ranked minus 15(in France its mean he had no atp points but just under that...i wd say around NCAA first division level) said he could beat Navratilova when she was at her top...he was wrong!!!....before thinking about beating WOZ, you think 100% you can beat a top NCAA division 1 woman? when i used to live in Boston, i used to practice with the MIT team(its not division 1 i know!!!!) and had the chance to hit balls with some girls from Harvard team and USC team and it was already very very good level of tennis and those girls wd lose 6-1/ 6-1 against WOZ!!!i really dont argue with you in a bad way DMO!!! its just interesting talking!!!!

I loved your response to that Swiss! Thanks And yes, you are very right. Woz is a pusher, but prob the BEST one out there! And no, I could prob not beat her in a set, LOL!! It just looked like they were not hitting the ball super hard, I saw it with my own eyes & I know how I play. I don't know if I could beat a Div I woman, I would like to think I could hang in there for sure! And there is a BIG diff between the Men Div I and the Women Div I, huge difference. I think I could get at least 3-4 games on Woz, I know I could. If she was on, I'm sure I would get smoked like 1 or 0. Great post though man, thanks!

And hey, you lived in Boston>?? My entire family is from that area, mom and dads side, LOL!!! I went to school at Merrimack College in North Andover. Ya know where that is???? I played soccer for them, Div II for 3 years. Then I came back to Houston, long story. And I do hit with a kid who is going to LSU next semester for tennis, great player IMO. Him and I go back and forth, usually he gets the better of me, but a lot of 6-4's, 7-5, 6-3's. And he would definitely be able to beat or hang with any Div I woman I think. Man, I did not like Boston. Way too damn cold up there, a lot of days on the soccer pitch and it was cold as fing balls!!! I do not miss that ONE BIT!!! I like Houston, warm and warmer

[jinxpro13]

I HATE betting on Fognini! He just bothers me for some reason. He is SO lazy on the court! He is more concerned with his appearance than his game half the time, I have seen it with my own eyes. Bec of that, I rarely take him, no matter who he plays. I just think he could give SO much more effort on the court. Again, my opinoin.

I think his match already started early today bec of the rain yest. He is playing a qualifier, who you always have to be weary of when they go thru qualies and get a lot of match time under themselves. Should he win??? Yes. Will he??? Who the hell knows, I didn't touch that match bec a -400 to me on Fognini is absurd! I bet this is a long fought, hard match and if he wins, he barely pulls it out. Just my two cents on Fagnini. And yes, I did spell that the way I intended, LOL!!!

If you took him, good luck, I'm pulling for ya!!!

thanks a lot for the input dude. much appreciated. i threw him in a parlay with potro, ferrer and ramos without thinking. fingers crossed.

[Dmoneytx]

I looked at Ramos today quite a bit. I wish the odds were actually higher on him, that would tell me that the books are thinking he will win for sure today. But the -210 is scaring me off. He has SO much talent & being a BIG lefty, he showed SO much promise a year or two ago. But he fell off something fierce! Looks to me like he is starting to get some confidence back & notching up the wins. Good for him! I wish you luck on that play, I really like Ferrer today and hopefully Del Potro can be......... Del Potro. He plays with such passion & heart, it's hard not to back him so often. BOL today brotha!!!

[swissbank007]

if you know Boston, i used to live in backbay(near the Hancock Tower) and in Cambridge at Harvard Square near Harvard Law School....you really cant compared college tennis and pro tennis....the difference is soooo big!!!much bigger than i thought!!!! i remenber at that time there was a tournament in Boston before the US open and in the first round the best player of Harvard(he had a wild card i guess) played against brad Gilbert(here is one pusher!!lool..a bright one for sure!!!). i think he lost 6-1 6-0 or something like like....it was not winning ugly but losing ugly!!!loool....i used to see that Harvard guy practice often and even hit balls with him a few time and i thought he was an amazing player, very fit and everything...and i think the difference between pro tennis and college tennis is even bigger now!!!....maybe you can take 1 or 2 games on WOZ but only with incredible first serves in my opinion......you think the best actual NCAA tennis male wd beat Serena Williams or Azarenka??? im not sure but i think so....it wd be interesting to watch!!!!

[Dmoneytx]

If I have any more plays for the late afternoon, they will go up later. This completes the card for the morning and early afternoon.

Play #5
Cilic -495
Nishikori -500
Querrey -400
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx +100
1.5u / 1.5u

[Dmoneytx]

if you know Boston, i used to live in backbay(near the Hancock Tower) and in Cambridge at Harvard Square near Harvard Law School....you really cant compared college tennis and pro tennis....the difference is soooo big!!!much bigger than i thought!!!! i remenber at that time there was a tournament in Boston before the US open and in the first round the best player of Harvard(he had a wild card i guess) played against brad Gilbert(here is one pusher!!lool..a bright one for sure!!!). i think he lost 6-1 6-0 or something like like....it was not winning ugly but losing ugly!!!loool....i used to see that Harvard guy practice often and even hit balls with him a few time and i thought he was an amazing player, very fit and everything...and i think the difference between pro tennis and college tennis is even bigger now!!!....maybe you can take 1 or 2 games on WOZ but only with incredible first serves in my opinion......you think the best actual NCAA tennis male wd beat Serena Williams or Azarenka??? im not sure but i think so....it wd be interesting to watch!!!!

I know exactly where both of those are, LOL! How funny. I did not get into downtown very often or over in Cambridge, but we would go to a bar or two in that area from time to time. And yes, Brad Gilbert was the pusher of all pushers. How he beat a very fit, good solid Div I player is odd. I know he got to top 10 in the world maybe??? But Gilbert had the most disgusting strokes. Any player today that hits solid on both sides like the good pros, would beat him 0&0. But, back then, I can see how he got away with that crap. To beat Harvard's number one guy like that?????! Wow. That is awful for him I think.

And yes, the diff between college and pros is HUGE! And NO, I do not think the BEST Div I Mens player in the world, could beat Serena or Aza. No chance. Those are the two women who are exceptions in my opinion, along with Maria. Other than that, YES, I would say most GOOD Div I Men's players would beat most of the WTA. Just my opinon

[Dmoneytx]

I thought about it, but I did the parlays instead. Should of just thrown 1 unit on Llodra to win at +240 today. He won the first set, Del Potro only winning 60% of first serve points, WTF!!!???? Stupid me to throw 2.5 units on Del Potro rather than 1 unit on Llodra. This is gonna be a tough turn around for Del Potro to make, he is gonna need some help from Llodra. Dammit!

[Dmoneytx]

*Thanks to Raonic not being able to beat a teenager who has not won a match all year on the lower tours, the day ended up loser. What a CHOKE job by Raonic last night. Shocking.....


Yesterdays Record 2/20:

Combined Plays (2-3) -2.4 units (-$240)

BECAUSE both winners had pushes in them AND Raonic lost as -1500 fav, or would of been 4-1!!! ARG!





Overall Record (YTD) as of 2/20:

Total = (84-69-4) +9.67 units (+$967)
Total Win % = 53.5%


*BIG money plays (YTD) = (53-25)

[Dmoneytx]

Plays for 2/21:


Play #1
Simon -410
Cilic -495
Nishikori -500
Ferrer -600

Total = apprx +108
1.5u / 1.62u


Play #2
Simon -410
Nishikori -500
Ferrer -600
Almagro -1000

Total = apprx -110
1.5u / 1.36u

Play #3
Del Potro -300 (should be a close one)
Almagro -1000
Ferrer -600
Duke, cbb -1000

Total = apprx -112
1.5u / 1.34u

Play #4
Sock +130
Del Potro -300
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx +241
1.0u / 2.41u

Play #5
Cilic -495
Nishikori -500
Querrey -400
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx +100
1.5u / 1.5u

***I wanted to repost my pending plays for today. BOL to ev1!!! VAMOS!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Adding one more play to the afternoon's matches:


Play #6
Cilic -495
Querrey -415
Ferrer -600
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx -105
1.0u / 0.94u

[Dmoneytx]

WHAT a hold by Del Potro!!! Win or lose, he saved FOUR break points at held to go 4-4 in the third set!!!

VAMOS Del Potro!!!

[jinxpro13]

WHAT a hold by Del Potro!!! Win or lose, he saved FOUR break points at held to go 4-4 in the third set!!!

VAMOS Del Potro!!!

huge. seems like Llodra won't let a shot by him today.

[jinxpro13]

wow.. DEL POTROOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

[Dmoneytx]

WHAT A MATCH!!! VAMOS Del Potro!!! I know that win helped me out big time, but that was a VERY enjoyable match to watch!!! The stream was great & you are right jp13, Llodra would not let any shots go by him. He played a very inspired match, in front of the home crowd, BUT the reason I take Del Potro (probably too much) is bec of his....... HEART. Watching Del Potro take that break at 5-5 & seeing how fired up he was is the reason I bet on him as much as I do. Just that look in his eyes, that fire when he grits his teeth....... he wants to win so bad & it shows. Great match by Llodra.

Congrats to Del Potro! VAMOS!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Another CHOKE job by Sam Querrey. God, I have got to stop backing this loser. He just lost to Matosevic, uh....... yea, I'm not backing Querrey again for quite some time. How soon I forget that Querrey is another AVERAGE player with a good serve. That's it. Today taught me a valuable lesson, Querrey is not that good. Period!

He was UP 4-3 in the third, of course he gets broken. What a loser. He is 5-6 in the third, of course he gets broken to go home. Querrey = MASSIVE overhype (lessons cost me a few bucks, but you won't see that guy in another one of my parlays).

[face]

Another CHOKE job by Sam Querrey. God, I have got to stop backing this loser. He just lost to Matosevic, uh....... yea, I'm not backing Querrey again for quite some time. How soon I forget that Querrey is another AVERAGE player with a good serve. That's it. Today taught me a valuable lesson, Querrey is not that good. Period!

He was UP 4-3 in the third, of course he gets broken. What a loser. He is 5-6 in the third, of course he gets broken to go home. Querrey = MASSIVE overhype (lessons cost me a few bucks, but you won't see that guy in another one of my parlays).

did you see the way he played those last points?! playing pattycake with matosevic, hitting it gently back to the same spot over and over again before finally ripping an idiotic ball way long. total loser, never betting him again.

[AndrewMcCutchen]

If I have any more plays for the late afternoon, they will go up later. This completes the card for the morning and early afternoon.

Play #5
Cilic -495
Nishikori -500
Querrey -400
Duke, cbb -900

Total = apprx +100
1.5u / 1.5u

I'm sorry, but Ryan Harrison is not that good..... American tennis is garbage.

Gotta love ANOTHER first round exit for America's PROMISING YOUNG FUTURE superstar! LOL. What a crock. I gotta STOP buying into the hype that this kid is gonna be a good good player. He will never amount to anything substantial in the tennis world and he is just another average, decent player with a sometimes good serve, sometimes! Other than that, Ryan Harrison is NOT the United States future star.

Watched with my own eyes, ANOTHER choke job by Ryan. Only needing to hold serve twice to win the match, he plays like complete garbage. Kid is not that good & he chokes so often. Congrats Ryan, now go pick up your pathetic $920 paycheck & go buy some more McDonalds. Stupid me to think he can win a "first" round match against a guy in his 30's. LMAO!!!


PS. Don't forget our other PROMISING American, Sam Q. What a "wonderful" display he put on in the Raonic match. He got freaking BLOWN off the court. Sam looked like he was clueless. The future for American tennis is the worst it has ever been IMO. Sucks bec I live in the US. With the money we have training sports and the athletes........I'm actually embarrassed.

-Sam Querrey

-400

[Dmoneytx]

did you see the way he played those last points?! playing pattycake with matosevic, hitting it gently back to the same spot over and over again before finally ripping an idiotic ball way long. total loser, never betting him again.

I did not see it, I was on the court teaching & when I got done it was 5-5 in the third. I didn't even know he was UP a break at 4-3 in the third until I got home!!! Stings even more now, LOL! This was a semi-fade against Matosevic also, but this is a match Querrey SHOULD win 9 out of 10 times. For sure.
Why he got so passive??? No clue. To me, it was a complete mental breakdown. It's like he didn't know what to do. I mean, how can you do the same crap for an hour and 40 mins, then the last 15 mins you look clueless??? I play a high level of tennis & to some degree I can understand this. But for a pro of his stature??? NOT GOOD.

[Dmoneytx]

To Andrew McC: That post seemed like it was fairly negative, correct me if I am wrong. But I remember you coming into the tennis threads & bashing the cappers (who do this crap for free mind you) that tennis is the WORST sport to bet on & how pathetic it is period! Well, I promote this sport to anyone and everyone. I have been teaching 14 years & travel Texas to play tments in my level. This sport has given back SO much to the people in MY life, it is unreal! I have been working with Special Olympics as a certified Tennis Coach for the past 8 years & every tment I travel to in Texas is just amazing! The work that the sponsors do, and the volunteers, would make ya cry man. I have 6 Autism students & we play around 4-6 tments a year across the state. Tennis is one of the truly amazing sports that does SO much more than teach you how to hit a ball with a stick. I know first hand. And the rewards are freaking priceless man

Oh, I'm assuming your post here was about the WAGER. Well, being that tennis is a sport you can't win money on, funny how with the Querrey disaster at 5-6 in the third set AND if Sock loses tonight, I am still up a unit (around 100). If Sock pulls this out, I would be up around 4.5 units (450) today for just tennis. I know you just pasted what "I" wrote on my own thread. I know you didn't say anything derogatory. But there is a ton of money to be made in tennis man. I know the last few days I personally hit a tough spot, but I always rebound nicely & for the most part, I usually make money at tennis on a daily basis. Also, I do this shiit bec I just want to try to help some people out. I teach tennis full time. Single dad with 3 kids full time. A girlfriend, who takes all the rest of my time, LOL!!! And I still find a lot of time during the week to run everyday & to hit balls around 3-4 times a week to keep sharp. Pls don't forget what the cappers do on the tennis forum & why. Hope you have a good nite man, adios.

[gators0708]

Mannnn Querrey had 2 ruin what was gonna be a good day 4 me! American tennis these days