Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

I am a tournament in San Antonio. Which is why I have not been on the site hardly at all. I do want to put my two plays in for tomm real quick. I have to leave one of my parlays open bec Bookmaker does not have the total games for Raonic match yet. I will have to add it later. I do expect the line on Del Potro to go up, so I want it now. I am not going to make huge plays for tomm, just two regular ones. I wish ev1 the BOL!!! VAMOS!!!

Play #1
Del Potro -470
Raonic -155

Total = apprx +100
1.5u / 1.5u


Play #2
Del Potro -470
OPEN SPOT (will most likely add over on Raonic match, will decide tomm morning)

Total = apprx ???
1.5u / ???


*So, both will be plus money payouts & if one wins (no way I see both losing) then I win a small crappy amount or break even. BUT, I can see both the plays hitting actually. I might change my mind, gonna sleep on it & see what the line is when it comes out tomm morning, I'm hoping its 23, hoping...

[Dmoneytx]

*Just added 0.5 units ($50) to both plays. Again, no way I see both of those losing & with a good line I can see both hitting.

[swissbank007]

what is your take and thoughts on nadal(1.44) match...i feel like putting lot of money on him...the line is soo "high".....but i havent seen him played at all the last two weeks....but i dont see him losing two finals in a row...even if with nalbandian we never know......i really hesitate.....did you see him play?nalbandian also?nalbandian looks fit? sooo many questions about that match

[Dmoneytx]

What's up Swiss?? I actually have a few mins, my girl is playing her 8am semifinals right now. I have been at a tment in San Antonio, sorry I haven't been on at all this weekend really.

With that being said, I have not watched many matches since early in the week. I have NOT seen "fat Dave" play at all this tment. And I am quite surprised to see him make the final of a CLAY tment! He MUST be striking the ball really really good this week. That is the thing with Nalby. He is SUCH a clean striker of the ball, that when he catches a gear he is fukking really really good. There is a reason he was inside the top 10 in the world for a long time. When he is unmotivated & not hitting super clean, like days of old, he actually sucks. But this week he has found a gear, obviously, and I really would not overlook him. The other reason I say this is my next thought:

If u have seen Nadal play the last few tments, he has been average as crap. AND he is playing alot on that knee, so today he can't be at 100%. There is no way. This is what?? His 7th match or so in two weeks?? But what he WILL do today is "TRY" 150% & do whatever it takes to win this title. He will grind forever today & play with pain. He won't care. That to me is a huge X factor.....

So, do I think Nadal wins?? Wow. So hard to just feel really confident to take Rafa. I DID watch Rafa play Berlocq in that semi last week & he was average as crap IMO. He was down a break TWICE in the third set to Carlos freaking Berlocq!!! This is a guy he would of beaten 6-0, 6-0 as Nadal of old! And he lost to Zeballos, whom I have seen play live twice & he had NOTHING special at all when I watched him play!!! This is another player old Nadal would of beaten 6-0, 6-1. I am 99% sure of that! So, Nadal at -240?? Wow. Seems like the easiest line of the year doesn't it?? Can Nadal win, of course. But Nalbys form this week is reminding me of old Nalby & if u remember, he was really really good. I expect him to definitely push Nadal today & maybe even win this match based on Nadals current form. When u saw the line yest, my gut said put 1,000 on it!!!! But dammit, Nadal should of lost to 35 yr old Berlocq????! And he did lose to Haracio Zeballos?? Wow. This is not the Nadal we have seen for 8 years. Not even close. This is why I stayed away for the time being. -240 is SO tempting, but watching an old, over the hill pro (Berlocq) trying to close Nadal out in the third, up a break (twice) was SHOCKING to me!
Honestly, this match scares me a lot. I really do think Nadal will go balls to the wall today & do ANYthing it takes to win today. His heart is SO fing big, it makes him will himself to be so amazing. He is just struggling so much, I just can't lay the -240. If u play it, good luck sir!!

She finished the first set, I gotta roll. Hope this helped.

[swissbank007]

thanks so much for you reply!!!....i felt a bit the same so ive decided to put 1 unit on Nalbandian..its simple: good if he win and small loss if nadal win....but soooo tempting to put big money on Nadal ....no!!no!!no!! i wont do it!!!

[Dmoneytx]

I actually agree with you Swiss & u know how much I play the favorites man. That is pretty much all I do. But I just can't lay $500 to win $200 on Nadal who should of lost to Berlocq & did lose to loser Zeballos. Sorry, I don't like the dude bec both times I watched him play, his attitude was horrid!!! And being a teacher of the game, that is pathetic to me. Throwing raquets. Screaming in anger after so many points. It was not fun to watch. And his game was nothing special. None! And he freaking beat Nadal?? Wow. Smart play u made I think. If he wins, good payout. If Nadal beats a really really in form Nalby, then small loss. Trust me, he is gonna have his hands full with Nalbandian BIG time. Gotta roll again, LOL. Peace out.

[Dmoneytx]

Going to add the Over 24.5 games @ -130 in the open spot for my second play today. Raonic is at -195, so I'm glad I got him yesterday at -155.

Like I said, I either push today or win both. Hoping for the later. BOL ev1!!!

[Dmoneytx]

I also need to post the other days open tickets I had & clean everything up from like Thursday. I am still in San Antonio. Mixed finals in about an hour. The guy I had to default on (when I was UP 6-3, 3-1) is in the finals. F me large y'all. I am happy for him though. Sorry for the mess this weekend & lack of being online. I'm home around 11pm, I can't wait
I am also putting plays up tonight for tomm. Thanks for ev1's support, always.

[Dmoneytx]

Raonic up a break already. I almost did both plays on him, but after the rough rough days, I needed to play semi safe. I did put Raonic in three other open parlays, so him winning is kind if big for me today. Could see three sets, maybe Milos in two?? I know for the thread, if it's a 3 setter I win both plays OR break even with Milos in two sets. We will see.....

[Dmoneytx]

Back home. Feels good. Was way too tired last night to do anything except unpack & go to sleep. I am going to clean up the weekend & post a couple of plays for today. Most of the matches start later in the morning.

[Dmoneytx]

Play #1 for 2/18:

Del Bonis -265
Harrison -220

Total = apprx +100
1.25u / 1.25u

[swissbank007]

you thought on cibulkova-petrova???....at 1.61 its tempting to put a few units for petrova even she is a bit of a nutcase!! she was quite good last week opposite of cibulkova who has done nothing the last few weeks but leading 3-1 in HtoH agains petrova.....i hesitate!!!!

[Dmoneytx]

I'm on the road driving. I saw they put this line back up, so I did a small play. Will be my last play on Tomic ever, outside Australia, if he doesn't win today. Klizan retired last week, so he might not be fully healthy. Lets see how TB does this morning.

Play #2

Belliccci -210
Tomic -260

Total = apprx + 102
1.0u / 1.02u

[Dmoneytx]

you thought on cibulkova-petrova???....at 1.61 its tempting to put a few units for petrova even she is a bit of a nutcase!! she was quite good last week opposite of cibulkova who has done nothing the last few weeks but leading 3-1 in HtoH agains petrova.....i hesitate!!!!

I base my plays more on current forms than head to heads. Although H to H can be important. Especially with the women. It's mostly about form IMO.

Petrova has been playing well, but she can lose it mentally quite often. Touch call there. That's. big reason I rarely do women's tennis. Good luck though.

[Sam_Hawkins]

man your thoughts on tomic and bellucci? I see both of them quite tough, bellucci aint playing that good lately, losing to volandri easily, and schwartzman is comparable to volandri right? Also tomic did not show anything particularly good lately...

[Dmoneytx]

I really like Harrison today. He played really well last week, had a tough loss. I think he can rebound today & this will be a tough match. Kubot can serve really well & he will push Ryan today I think. My gut says Ryan pulls this one out & moves onto the next round.


Play #3

Harrison -220
Zeballos -230

Total = apprx +109
1.0u / 1.09u

[Dmoneytx]

man your thoughts on tomic and bellucci? I see both of them quite tough, bellucci aint playing that good lately, losing to volandri easily, and schwartzman is comparable to volandri right? Also tomic did not show anything particularly good lately...

I agree on both actually. But, Bellucci needs to win this match today & I think it will be close. IF he can find his form, he will def win. And that "could" happen, ya never know. If he grinds hard, like last few matches, it will be really tight.
Tomic also needs to win this match today. If he can't win a first round match against a former Challanger player, then he is a complete flop. He can't keep losing early in these tments or he will be completely ignored by the world IMO. I am also making that play bec Klizan retired last match. I know Klizan has the higher ranking now, but if Tomic can't beat a guy who just retired & was getting smoked by Simon, then this $100 will be my last to throw on that guy. It's only a 100 & the results will be long lasting, for me it's worth one more shot on this kid to wake up & play the way he knows he can.

[Hardcoar]

... Although H to H can be important. Especially with the women....

...

How so?

Also, it might interest you to know Simon was being beaten quite securely by Klizan until he cramped, as I stated in the injuries thread.

P.S: Don't bet 'n' drive!

[Dmoneytx]

How so?

Also, it might interest you to know Simon was being beaten quite securely by Klizan until he cramped, as I stated in the injuries thread.

P.S: Don't bet 'n' drive!

That made no sense. What do you mean "how so"??? You want me to explain WHY head to heads are important with the women in tennis??? HUH? Uh, I have been doing this a long time & if you know what I know, then you KNOW that the women tend to play other women in certain ways that get the best of their opponent. It's called matching up with someone. It's the type of game a player might play versus another player. Sometimes it just gets to them & it reflects that in the H to H's. For BOTH men and women, the H to H's are important bec sometimes you just have more confidence playing a certain player or in a certain venue. That is common sense. At least it is to me.

And I KNEW about Klizan cramping and beating Simon. Guess what??? Simon sucks. He freaking pushes well over half the time & his game is almost all defense! That was NOT what I was even worried about. Beating Simon??? LOL! That would of meant nothing to me. I have seen Simon lose to AVERAGE players. And I mean, average at best! Simon has NEVER impressed me with his game, any player who can play good offense can beat that guy, LOL. Besides, WHO won that match today??? Uh, not Kilizan. Thank you.

And I didn't decide my wager while I was driving. Read my post. I said they "reposted" the line, so I decided to take it. I already knew that Tomic would prob win that match and having Bellucci in a third set at 0-0 at now +100 something was a EXCELLENT value. I gaurantee the live play on TB was prob -300 range starting that third set. So I made the right plays, he was just garbage in the third and for only $100 I know to never play Bellucci again in ANY match. He has become pathetic, today just validated that for me.

Thanks for the reply. But I don't decide my players while I drive. I do that at home or when I am alone and have free time. You didn't understand what I wrote obviously.

[Dmoneytx]

Wow, what an awesome choke job by Harrison today. Hold serve to win the match??? Of course he choked. Of course he lost. What a bum. Gonna go with one more play today. I think Zeballos is playing really well at the moment & I will go with him this match to see if he can keep it going.



Play #4
Zeballos -215
Almagro -1000
Drexel (cbb) -825

Total = apprx -124
1.5u / 1.21u

[Hardcoar]

That made no sense. What do you mean "how so"??? You want me to explain WHY head to heads are important with the women in tennis??? HUH? Uh, I have been doing this a long time & if you know what I know, then you KNOW that the women tend to play other women in certain ways that get the best of their opponent. It's called matching up with someone. It's the type of game a player might play versus another player. Sometimes it just gets to them & it reflects that in the H to H's. For BOTH men and women, the H to H's are important bec sometimes you just have more confidence playing a certain player or in a certain venue. That is common sense. At least it is to me.

And I KNEW about Klizan cramping and beating Simon. Guess what??? Simon sucks. He freaking pushes well over half the time & his game is almost all defense! That was NOT what I was even worried about. Beating Simon??? LOL! That would of meant nothing to me. I have seen Simon lose to AVERAGE players. And I mean, average at best! Simon has NEVER impressed me with his game, any player who can play good offense can beat that guy, LOL. Besides, WHO won that match today??? Uh, not Kilizan. Thank you.

And I didn't decide my wager while I was driving. Read my post. I said they "reposted" the line, so I decided to take it. I already knew that Tomic would prob win that match and having Bellucci in a third set at 0-0 at now +100 something was a EXCELLENT value. I gaurantee the live play on TB was prob -300 range starting that third set. So I made the right plays, he was just garbage in the third and for only $100 I know to never play Bellucci again in ANY match. He has become pathetic, today just validated that for me.

Thanks for the reply. But I don't decide my players while I drive. I do that at home or when I am alone and have free time. You didn't understand what I wrote obviously.

I'm sorry I thought it was clear enough with the specified quotation. I would very much like to know why you find H2H to be of greater importance with women, than with men. I personally have no idea which is the case so I'm not making any claims one way or the other – merely trying to learn your reasoning.

Thank you!

..."but if Tomic can't beat a guy who just retired & was getting smoked by Simon"...

This seemed to indicate otherwise. My bad I suppose.

I disagree with Simon "sucking", and certainly in that particular match. I also don't hold the position that losing to average players on occasion means particularly much looking across the tour, but that's a matter of opinion as well clearly.

As for who won today's match (barely, mind you), firstly I made my post well before the match had even begun. Secondly, I never made any claims as to who would win in the first place. Thirdly, whether a certain outcome occurs in any particular case is irrelevant: What matters is the odds and the probability of that outcome.

Finally, the P.S part was a joke entirely, so lighten up and much luck with your bets!

[Bet10Heinekens]

Zeballos

Still got a full week of tennis to try and find some winners D$$$

[swissbank007]

i think the only way to win money is to follow my pics everyday!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Zeballos

Still got a full week of tennis to try and find some winners D$$$

For the entire first set and almost all of the second set, I thought Zeballos was going to win in straights....

I hope to do well tomm, need a good day to get some back!

[Rose']

For the entire first set and almost all of the second set, I thought Zeballos was going to win in straights....

I hope to do well tomm, need a good day to get some back!

What up Dmoney any a.m plays?

[swissbank007]

Hi tennis otaku!!! ca va? check my pic of the day!!...i want to invest a lot of money on it!!!.....let me know if you feel its crazy....i dont think soo..thanks in advance!!

[Dmoneytx]

I am definitely getting the thread cleaned up this morning. Today will be my first day to have some good time alone. I do want to put some early plays up. I'm trying to get the Llodra line put back up bec they play AFTER Parie who is still in progress, so looking at 30 mins to an hour if it goes 3 sets. I really like Llodra to get past Goffin (who has been not playing great lately) and move onto the next round. I'll post 2-3 plays in just a min. BOL to ev1 today!!! More plays to come later, prob just 1-2 range. VAMOS!!!

[lucasdawg]

can i ask what are your thoughts on E. Gulbis vs J Nieminen? i think gulbis takes first set and probs win 2-1 sets. agree/disagree?

[Dmoneytx]

Early Plays for 2/19:


Play #1
Llodra -410
Monfils -400
Wawrinka -425

Total = apprx -108
2.0u / 1.85u


Play #2
Llodra -410
Bautista-Agut -415
Wawrinka -425

Total = apprx -109
1.5u / 1.38u


Play #3
Llodra -410
Volandri -165

Total = apprx -101
1.0u / 0.99u


***Llodra match is on after Paire which is still in progress.

[Dmoneytx]

Hi tennis otaku!!! ca va? check my pic of the day!!...i want to invest a lot of money on it!!!.....let me know if you feel its crazy....i dont think soo..thanks in advance!!

I stayed away from this match bec Gulbis played really good last week. I saw that match & he was serving great, big serves, patient in the rallies and hitting winners. But then he did go stupid & he hits that double fault and two or three errors in a row to blow a game quickly. So, hard to say which Gulbis will show up today. He is such a wild card.

Nieminen on the other hand, has been playing really really good for Nieminen. He is super confident & is really playing some good tennis. I would probably say that he is a slight fav to win this match, bec if Gulbis the head case shows up today I really think Jarko will win this one. BUT, I do think a Gulbis will want to win today & he will play good and he can win this match for sure, but it will not be easy bec Jarko is just playing the best he has played in quite awhile.

That is why I stayed away from this one. I saw other matches I just liked better. BOL if you play it though!

[Dmoneytx]

What up Dmoney any a.m plays?

What's up Rose?? Hope you been doing well. I passed out last night, LOL. The Paire match is in the third set, so gotta wait another 30 -40 mins. Hope you have a good day today with the wagers! I am really hoping to get off to a good start toady.....

[swissbank007]

this Eranni girl can run run run run....she did the same in Paris playing an almost 3h match and playing double just after...she has been playing almost 40 games since the beginning of year and not one sign of fatigue!!!....its not her who were linked with the doctor Fuentes who was involved in doping in cycling in spain???

[killawookie]

Goffin hasn't really done well this year and llodra is doing quite well so far this year especially in last months tournament in france and the line is now at -380? sounds fishy

[swissbank007]

-2000 now!!!

[swissbank007]

krajinovic can be the surprise of the day!!!!