Aren't all your bets "square as fuk", or "on favorites", as I prefer to term it?
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more retards favored paire and shitface oprandi LOLComment -
Actually the answer is "no" Hard. The old Dmoney, almost everything I took were chalkies & parlayed them...
Will I stop doing my chalk parlays? No. Because Hard, I have learned thru time (and what works for me) is I still look hard for those chalks I think will win & then start to flip the other way on chalks I don't like by taking the other player plus the games or maybe an over/under....
A variation of both of my styles was the other night with Almagro. I DID like Almagro to win, but at -800??? Nothing to really put him with. So loving that one chalk play, I took the under.... easy cash. I have also started to look more at small dogs and 50-50 matches and really seeing who the better player is & taking maybe more small chances...
I will edit this post just to show you that, even lately here, I have been spreading out my style a lot more than usual. Shit, I even hit a small dog at River Oaks this week, lol. Imagine that huh??? But I honestly feel that this is the way I will go from here on out. Look for those guys I think will win for sure, find the right combinations & then find 50-50 matches or players plus games and analyze them even more...
I just don't bet fav's anymore, at least I try not to
But will I take that big dog at +400 or so??? Prob never, lol!!!
***Just this week I had Russell plus games, Young plus games was the small dog, Querrey on ML I got early at a small dog price, Brown plus games was small dog (hit him on a big +241 parlay as well there), etc...
So, I am at least trying to get some of those much better payouts without having to put together 2 or 3 players. I still love the fav's, but the slight change has been good for me & a little more lucrative Hope it continues...
Last edited by Dmoneytx; 04-11-14, 05:17 PM.Comment -
Well, I kind of touched on it when I responded to Cappn just now. This match is "not" free money to me like everyone keeps saying. Why??? I will tell ya'll. IF I saw Sam making a bunch of errors. IF I saw Sam getting upset or throwing his raquet (which I have seen in the past quite a bit - mostly his temper tantrums on the court). IF I saw Sam "barely" getting thru matches or displaying any of those attributes this week, THEN I would be all over Brown without even thinking!!! But that is simply not the case this week. Not from what I saw....
Querrey looked sharp. He looked focused! HE was murdering forehands on the practice court. And serves. NO surprise he won this week in easy straights as the dog! I wasn't... HE is Sam Querrey though. He can easily go thru a small spell where he can't make a first serve or he blows a few easy shots to stay in a game. He is playing great, but if that happens tonight that has been Sam's game his whole life. But the guy is looking so sharp, that serve speed was around 138 & forehand looked strong, penetrating the court....
NOW-------
About Brown.... He has had an amazing week so far. Taking out Isner was a huge feat & he deserved it without question. He knows he has a great shot to make a semi final ATP! Wow! BUT he has zero pressure in all of these matches. He is supp to lose. He knows that. And he has played it so well so far.. Will it continue tonight??? I think YES. He will be even more relaxed tonight I think AND he will actually have really good crowd support for sure!!! Look at what the Stadium was doing for Young's match! Fukking cheering for a Spainard Verdasco. Really?? I heard quite a FEW claps when Young doubled to get broke and he didn't serve out the first set up 5-3. That is pathetic. SO, with that - I am sure Dustin will get a lot of people cheering for him for sure. He will feed off the crowd, his crazy unpred play will get everyone like "WTF"???!! And they will love it.
Dustin has been sitting on back courts, he sat ON the clay with his coach the other day for a long time just talking. When I talked to him at the pool Wed, he was in a trance. The guy is ready. He will play well I think. He has nothing to lose. Nothing... He will make this an amazing match I think, honestly. I hope so....
SO - What's the play huh??? LOL.... This is what I think:
This is setting up for a classic scoreline of one close set and one breaker possibly! Even that could hit the 23 and push. BUT, I think Dustin will win a set tonight, I think Sam will get thrown off and at times frustrated by the weird azz fukking style of Brown. Hopefully he takes a break or wins a tiebreaker. This match to me is an ultimate coin toss. I honestly think Sam will go thru some ebbs and flows, ups and downs in this match and to me that makes me really look at the OVER 23 games... Even two awesome sets could get it. But I think this is a classic match with maybe 3 sets and only 1 being breaker... It is just my thoughts, but is what I am rolling with in my thread....
BOL to everyone tonight if they play anything with this match! It is live on tennis channel just so ya'll know...Comment -
Second Play - 4/11
*I am hoping for a beauty tonight...
Brown/Querrey Over 23 games -120
Risking 1.75 units to win 1.45 unitsComment -
Dmoney any insight on the delbonis match this am. Is -140 a good value for the fave? TyComment -
Great call on the Brown match! Very good that you managed to push aside your sympathies to Brown and make a correct play. Well done!
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Congrats to Brown for a good tourney. he just cant seem to take that next step..I think he gets into Roland Garros automatic entry now, which is good..French frogs will love that shit..
Good play D money on the over..kind of like you said happened...brown had 2 break points at 40-15 late in 3rd, I was watching and predicted Sam to pump those serves in and he did.His demeanor on court though sucks balls..Will always root for Brown now.Not sure where he goes next.I think the german touneys might give him a wildcard or two as in past years due to his success.Comment -
I agree with Brown man. A free shot at French starting in the main draw would be a good opp for him & pay well too, lol!!! Even first round loss pays well. He should get some wildcard's into the German tourneys, I agree with that - I hope he does to. He "might" have that 1 tment where he does get thru to a final, ya never know. I will be a Brown fan for the rest of my life prob... He is such a nice, soft guy, hard not to like him really. You can just tell with him, from what I saw in person, that he is really happy to be doing what he is doing & as a player/coach, watching his style is freaking so fun to me
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Overall Record for 2014:
Total = (26-18-1)
Profit = +0.55 units / +$55
W/L % = 57.8%Comment -
Overall Record for 2014:
Total = (28-18-1)
Profit = +3.25 units / +$325
W/L % = 60.0%Comment -
I am going to look at the first match today. I know I have been primarily sticking to just the RO tment this week, but that is where I feel I am dialed in & I want to try to keep it rolling... I will post something shortly, might not have time for an expl, but will do my best. Good luck to everyone today, hoping for another good one...Comment -
First Play - 4-12
*Did a write up in my RO thread. This could be a beauty...
Verdasco/Giraldo Total games Over 22.5 -115
Risking 1.25 units to win 1.04 unitsComment -
Giraldo UP 5-3 and serving proceeds to suck complete dick to get rolled 4 games in a row. I leaned Verdasco and take the over, just watch some Colombian cump choke point after point, the guy couldn't close out a set up 5-3 serving, smh... I kind of knew putting my money on Giraldo to do well was not a good idea. He got to a good spot, but showed his true colors. He beat Robredo, how??? Pathetic Giraldo, you fukking choked hard buddy. Way to go!!!Comment -
NO match in the second semifinal. Querrey beats Brown in an amazing match. An AWESOME opportunity to get to a final. Jimmy Arias said he was talking to Sam & they were actually talking about strategy for today's match. He said that was just a couple hours ago. Did he just fall in the locker room or something???? Arias said he mentioned nothing & looked fine. Was this a freak accident??? Wow, Brown is prob pissed as fuk!!! At least he could of played to get to a final on the ATP tour... They said Sam went to go warm up at noon & maybe he freaking pulled something hitting balls... NO clue... But no semi & the finals are set....
IF anyone has any thoughts on the final, let everyone know... We have Almagro vs Verdasco for the River Oaks Title. I will be back later to throw some things out there, most likely on the River Oaks thread, hopefully we get some good talk going for tomm...Comment -
Overall Record for 2014:
Total = (28-19-1)
Profit = +2.00 units / +$200
W/L % = 58.3%Comment -
I am going to post some thoughts on today's Final in my River Oaks thread for the last time this week. We have had a good week in Houston & the few days I got to go to the tment were awesome. Wish I could do that all the time bec actually seeing the players was so helpful to make my wagers We have one more to go today, could be a very good match. I will be back later to post a play. IF anyone has any helpful info or thoughts, stop by the River Oaks thread and let all of us know. Be back soon...
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First Play - 4/13
*Going with the fresh Almagro, who is hungry to win a tment over Verdasco who played a ton of tennis this week....
Alamgro ML -182
Risking 1.5 units to win 0.89 unitsComment -
Second Play - 4/13
*If Almagro wins, I def see it by more than 1 game total.....
Almagro -1.5 games -145
Risking 1.0 units to win 0.67 unitsComment -
Almagro chokes on FIVE, yes FIVE, set points to take the second set 6-4. What the FUK is this Spanish fuk doing????? Holy shit, smh....
Pretty much fuks my second play, would of had a decent chance if he would of held onto his fukking break earlier in the set!!!!!!!!!!! Almagro WAS up 4-1, what a fuk head...Comment -
ALMAGRO = DUMB FUK
*Dude had FIVE set points at 5-4 AND two mini breaks in the second set breaker. Holy shit Almagro, what a HUGE choke job today on the tennis court. That was a shit display of tennis man, absolute shit...Comment -
Overall Record for 2014:
Total = (28-21-1)
Profit = -0.50 units / -$50
W/L % = 56.0%Comment -
Tough break on the finals I thought, but it is time to move on & see if I can get that overall back way up... I did put a play in on a few matches today, I just didn't post them last night. IF I do something for tonight's matches or tomm's early matches, I will post tonight before bed...
238644880-1 4/13/14 7:22pm $100.00 $252.68 $252.68 Win 4 Team Parlay Win 4/13/14 9:05pm NBA Basketball 709 Golden State Warriors +9½ -320* vs Portland Trailblazers Win 4/13/14 9:05pm NBA Basketball 712 Sacramento Kings -124* vs Minnesota Timberwolves Win 4/14/14 4:30am ATP Tennis 149 Philipp Kohlschreiber -320* vs Simone Bolelli Win 4/14/14 8:45am ATP Tennis 153 Roberto Bautista-Agut -750* vs Vasek Pospisil 238689962-1 4/13/14 11:52pm $100.00 $169.50 Pending 3 Team Parlay Win 4/14/14 5:45am ATP Tennis 158 Fabio Fognini -580* vs Joao Sousa Win 4/14/14 2:00am WTA Tennis 343 D.Kovinic Games Won +2½ -110* vs A-S.Mestach Games Won Pending 4/14/14 6:30am WTA Tennis 317 Karolina Pliskova -490* vs Aleksandra Krunic Comment -
Obviously, these will NOT go towards my record, lol. That is for only plays I post, BUT it would be nice to hit both parlays today/last night at +170 and +253 I wimped out and took Kovinic plus the 2.5 games but I KNEW she would flat out win, she won EASY, lol and I wimped out on her +140 ML, lol... No worries to me though bec Pliskova got rained out last night & I hope she destroys Krunic later on... I like my chances there for sure!!
I hope everyone is doing great! I will post a few plays later tonight around 11pm CST or earlier. Be back soon...Comment -
the kovinic match was a battle of the fugglies if I've ever seen one.Comment -
Gonna throw some pictures out of River Oaks this last week, they took down my Dustin Brown pic on the other thread, NO WAY!!! Lol, no clue why..... I hope they let me keep these ones on my thread, lol
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nice pics. pretty close shots, looks like a good tournament for the fansComment -
The ones in the Stadium were in the South Boxes, awesome seats bec view is great, small Stadium court, drink wine in your seats, place was half empty for afternoon matches, we sit up as close as we want - not too far so the shade is still hitting ya
River Oaks is a super small tment. The players walk around, I absolutely love it. On the side court for Russell, I sat 3 feet behind his bench with my feet almost on the clay. Same in Giraldo match.. I took that pic FROM my seat, lol!!! I sat right behind Querrey & Johnson for dubs, Querrey hits a hard serve, lol... It's loud, lol... The seats are awesome on the side courts. I got up twice and just stood there and shook the players hand when they were packing up & then walked off. It is so unique....Comment
