Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

5/11
Play #1

Bachinger -140

Total = -140
0.5u / 0.36u

(small play, but I do like it)

[RoryMacdonald]

BOL today D$

[Dmoneytx]

Thanks Rory! Hoping for a good one brotha!

[AceKingHigh]

I'll look into some total plays for ya AceKing. I am going to post my plays first, finish looking at the board & then I will throw up a few matches that look good for totals today. Just a few that might pop out at me. I will help the best I can.

Thanks bro,
I already locked up all my bets for today, but want to hear ya

[Dmoneytx]

5/11
Play #2

DelPotro -650
Djokovic -1000
Federer -400

Total = apprx. -170
1.1u / 0.65 u

[Dmoneytx]

5/11
Play #3

Williams S -180
Djokovic -1000

Total = apprx. -140
1u / 0.71u

[Dmoneytx]

I dont have any of the totals for the overs bec Bovada doesn't offer them. Just by glancing at the matches for totals, I would say that Berdych/Verd could go 3 sets. I could see Berdy winning in third. I hate to say it, bec he is in both my parlays, but the Djoko match could be a two set over. I could see a tiebreaker there & maybe another tight set. That would be a consideration for me definitely. Also, the Federer match could be the same type of over in two sets. I could see all of these matches being hard fought today. Out of the 4, we might see one comfortable win, at the most two. Other than that, should be some 3 setters or some close tight sets. Actually, getting out of the overs has helped me not wager so much & be so tempted to take those automatic overs on Isner & Karlovic (and they hit under, ARG). I do miss them somewhat, but I'm adapting to life without them fairly well. BOL today on all your plays ACEKING!

[AceKingHigh]

Thanks bro! just got the OVER & 2-1 Win & win in two parlays with Azarenka ! thx god lol

[EaglesPhan36]

Not playing totals, but days like this when you get "sexy" match-ups with players who all look like they could give the favorites a run ... seems like unders hit more. The fishiest one to me is Del Potro-Dolgopolov @ 20.5. Everyone probably is on the over there because both times they played there was a tie break involved and 22 games total. Seems easy to go over ... books aren't that stupid. Watch that one to see what happens.

[Dmoneytx]

Nice win AceKing!! Thats a good payout. Keep it up sir.

[Dmoneytx]

And I agree with you EP. Not playing the totals in general has helped me in my wagering. Concentrating more on the outcome of the match & not just how its going to get there, has been a good thing for me I think. But ya, those great matchups that seem MUST go over, hit under quite a bit huh??? LOL

[EaglesPhan36]

Berdych-Verdasco going under as well. Would not be surprised if they all went under. Tipsarevic-Djokovic maybe the best shot at the over, but no guarantees there either as Djokovic could work him over quick, especially given that it could be a predetermined level of effort between countrymen.

[Dmoneytx]

Djokovic losing turned my day into -260 vs prob +150. I just checked the score. All I can say is wow......
Looks like he had freaking break chance after break chance, Tips saves every break point???
Sure, ok.

[EaglesPhan36]

I didn't watch it, but after I saw that he lost the 1st set in a tie break - I was wondering if his effort level was going to drop since both he and Nadal had been most vocal about what a joke this surface was. Not saying he threw it, but may have just not given two shits about trying to mount a comeback.

[Optional]

Just as punters are lulled into a false sense of security that the big 3 will always make the Semis.

[ParlayininHTown]

Sorry about the losses dmoney. This is exactly why Friday is dog day for me. Too many heavy favorites have turned a great week into just a decent one with inexplicable losses on Fridays.

The new strategy hasn't been profitable, but it has prevented me from some heavy setbacks. I went 1-4 today and still lost less than 20 bucks.

It's difficult to be disciplined, because I really wanted to bet Del Po, Djoker and Federer today. But Djoker would've crushed me, so the other two wins wouldn't have meant a damn thing. I just had to keep telling myself, "you will not bet on a single favorite today. You will not lose 1/3 of what you made this week on a big favorite."

[Mercersux]

Hey Dmoneytx. I think Berdych @ +145 is a serious homerun tomorrow. What you feeling for Saturday??? Don't worry about Friday either. Some tough days just comes with the territory. Seems to me Djokovic just gave up after the break in the second set. Asshole probably just figured he'd do his fellow countrymen a solid.

[RoryMacdonald]

Seems to me Djokovic just gave up after the break in the second set. Asshole probably just figured he'd do his fellow countrymen a solid.

Im sorry you think that way because Tipsarevic was 5-3 he almost crumbled due to nerves and let Djoker back into the match, same thing that happened with Simon, but Simon just crapped out and quit. Tip also faced 3 break pts in the 2nd and saved them all. You CAN call him for mailing it in the Final at Monte Carlo against Nadal though. His grandfather had died and I think he just wanted to go back home for the funeral plus he wasnt going to lose pts even if he lost to Nadal. Here, however he does lose pts so why in the world does he want to do anybody any favors IMO ?

[Mercersux]

Im sorry you think that way because Tipsarevic was 5-3 he almost crumbled due to nerves and let Djoker back into the match, same thing that happened with Simon, but Simon just crapped out and quit. Tip also faced 3 break pts in the 2nd and saved them all. You CAN call him for mailing it in the Final at Monte Carlo against Nadal though. His grandfather had died and I think he just wanted to go back home for the funeral plus he wasnt going to lose pts even if he lost to Nadal. Here, however he does lose pts so why in the world does he want to do anybody any favors IMO ?

Nah your right joker did face three match points and i believe he aced three straight to get to duece. Even a little bit after that Tip seemed tight but it just seemed from joker's body language he wasn't going to put in much of a fight. Alot of the players having been complaining like hell about this tournament all week so maybe Joker just wanted out of there who knows.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm taking Berdych +145 and the over 22.5 tomorrow. I think Del Potro's run on clay ends tomorrow. Berdy moves very well for a big man on clay. First set could go to a tiebreaker with the way these two serve hence why i like the over as well.

[Mercersux]

I'm taking Berdych +145 and the over 22.5 tomorrow. I think Del Potro's run on clay ends tomorrow. Berdy moves very well for a big man on clay. First set could go to a tiebreaker with the way these two serve hence why i like the over as well.

Yeah im thinking of just going Berdych straight. Not sure about the over because i haven't had much luck with the o/u all week. GL though my man.

[Dmoneytx]

Many thanks to those who felt my pain today I will update my record in the morning, Im too tired right now. And Htown, u are prob right. I seem to do really well early to mid in the tments. Then a big dog bites u in the ass to make a good day, suck!

I am looking at the matches for tomm. The Berdych / DelPo match is almost a coin flip in my eyes. Bovada has DelPo at -200. Kind of crazy if u ask me. I'll get back on before I go to sleep. Comment on the match & maybe post one play.

[Dmoneytx]

Well, I am too tired to do each match from yesterday. Bachinger lost his match after winning the first set. Awesome ahole! And then Djokovic lost to Tips in straights. Tips saves 11 of 11 breaks. Awesome. Way to suck Djokovic. So I lost all 3 plays, -2.6 units. Just needed Djokovic to win to win a unit or so. So not a good day. Lessons learned though......

[Dmoneytx]

Today's Record 5/11:

Parlays (0-2) -2.10 units
(all bec of Djoko upset!!)

Straights (0-1) -0.50 units


Total = -2.60 units

[Dmoneytx]

Overall Record as of 5/11:

Parlays (29-16) +5.12 units
Straights (2-4) -2.15 units

Total = (31-20) +2.97 units
Total Win % = 60.8%

[Dmoneytx]

Been thinking of the Berdych / DelPo match. Wow, what a amazing match this could be huh?? Berdych is beating the crap out of ev1 & serving great! Hitting solid groundies. But he will not blow DelPo off the court.
DelPotro is playing really really good tennis. His serve is big! He is hitting some amazing forehands. He is moving really well. And I think every match he has played has been fairly close, unlike Berdych. It seems DelPo gets the break & then pretty much holds serve to win the set. Well, with Berdych it is gonna be alot tougher to get those break chances. So if most matches on clay for him are close against the bigger players, then HOW on earth could this not be close with a Berdych who is in great form??! I would be shocked to not see at least one tiebreaker here. So if we see one, that would mean the other set just has to be better than 6-3. I think we see a great match tomm (at least I hope so) & a three setter would be fitting. I also think we could see alot of games in two sets as well. Again, I would be shocked if either player got beat up & lost in straights. Both players are full of major confidence. And playing some inspired tennis! With all of this in place, I have to make my main play tomm the OVER 23 in this match.

As far as who will win this match.....?? That is so hard to call. All I can say is that I see this match as a CPI flip bas ally. And if u can get great odds on either player, it's prob worth taking. I can't call either player to win, so the over seems like a sensible play. BOL to ev1 today!!!

[Dmoneytx]

5/12
Play #1

Over 23 DelPo/Berdych -115

Total = -115
1.5u / 1.31u

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm taking Berdych +145 and the over 22.5 tomorrow. I think Del Potro's run on clay ends tomorrow. Berdy moves very well for a big man on clay. First set could go to a tiebreaker with the way these two serve hence why i like the over as well.

First set goes to Berdych in a tie breaker as expected.

[MagicDiceFlow]

7-6 , 4-4 second set .....the over has just hit boys regardless of who wins this set ......now just needs Berdych to win for a double payday .......nice job

[MagicDiceFlow]

Nice play on the over Dmoney ...cash it

Credit to Berdych, he bombed away DP with those 15 aces and most of those aces at critical points. Out of all the players outside the big four, I like Berdych's game the best. He's got the best groundstrokes out of all the big servers(Del Potro,Raonic,Isner). He's dominant on hardcourts and has proven this year, a force to be reckoned with on clay.

[AceKingHigh]

Nice play on the over Dmoney ...cash it

Credit to Berdych, he bombed away DP with those 15 aces and most of those aces at critical points. Out of all the players outside the big four, I like Berdych's game the best. He's got the best groundstrokes out of all the big servers(Del Potro,Raonic,Isner). He's dominant on hardcourts and has proven this year, a force to be reckoned with on clay.

Indeed good call, I was on it and when I saw you are too, I decided to double on it and glad I did my BRM is SHITTY! but so far so good lol

Missed the Over 19.5 on Williams game, that was BS ended 7-6 first and then 6-0 to land on the 19! =//

[Dmoneytx]

DelPo/Berdy OVER!!!! Thought I capped that match really well. Got that over in straight sets! Sweeeeeeeeeet

Im am coach this weekend. Girl has tment in Houston. I will update today's record & overall asap. BOL to ev1 today!!!

And congrats to anyone who followed my only play today!! Might take tomm off. Will be back on heavy start of next week. If I do have one play, I will post later tonight.

[Mercersux]

Dmoney, take tomorrow off. You earned it !!!

[Dmoneytx]

Thanks Mercer!! Appreciate the props
Don't know if I play something. If I do, it will be Rome.

[Dmoneytx]

Ace King, that over not coming from Serena's match was BS!!! Good play I thought. And to hit tiebreak in first is almost 95% or more to go over. What a joke she got bagels in second. Tough loss, but I thought u picked the right play. Don't let that get to ya. U made a good play!