Tennis thread

[gregm]

some multi sport parlays tonight

Rangers (nhl)/Federer/Djokovic/Sharapova/Radwanska +106 risk 2

Spurs ml (nba)Federer/Djokovic/Sharapova/Radwanska -116 risk 3.28

Stosur -182 risk 1.82

Robredo -3 -109 risk 1.09

[gregm]

I will update thread record tomorrow. should be a very good day today if tsonga and fed complete the parlays following a bad Wednesday with cornet wrecking the ship. I am looking forward to watching taylor tomorrow, she burned me with cornet but this girl may surprise people if she can stay fit. Very strong serve and forehand, backhand a little wild but really impressed with the strength of her shots. Huge game tomorrow for her, really surprised by the cornet win after the first few matches I saw Taylor play.

You have to get over her weight, these arent five set matches, she has some of the strongest wta ground shots out there at just 18, just hope she doesnt start spraying balls all over but she seemed to like the slower surfaces of the French. She had some great spin on her shots, really good net play. Fun to watch and she is a lefty, but I usually get excited over these young american players like oudin and it never pans out so we will see.

33-4 for Agut over berdych on tennis insight?? There isn't one of these guys on Ti who mentioned that berdychs numbers are better historically on clay than Agut. I guess they just see Bautista Agut is a Spaniard and assume Agut is a great clay player or look at h2h record with Berdych ,2-1 for Agut in 3 matches over last 2 years and none on clay?

Berdych has had a few good runs at the french, semis in 2010, round of 16 in 2012, lost a tough five setter to Monfils last year. Berydch has beaten on clay the likes of Djokovic, Almagro, Murray, Del Potro, Verdasco and Cilic. Agut has a very poor record at paris and has never beaten a top 10 player on clay and only one player in the top 50 on clay, Santiago Giraldo.

There are no real stats that really jump out to me at all that is really impressive with Agut on clay, certainly not deserving 33-4 backing on tennis insight facing one of the top 10 players in the world .Stat wise, Agut really doesnt deserve this mass backing but we will see

Berdych -3.5 -101 risk 2.02

Barthel/Bouchard/Tsonga -110 risk 1.1

Klizan -4 -110 risk 1.1

Raonic -3 -107 risk 1.07

Taylor Townsend +5 -111 risk 1.11

[frugalgambler]

First time I see her too, greg. Her backhand is really something else. But I am pretty sure she will not be another Oudin: I think she will be much better in the long run.

But, can she really take a set off CSN tomorrow, I am not so sure. CSN 2-0@-140 looks interesting.

[gregm]

I was just so impressed with her fg, taking the 5.5 based solely on that match because her stats are useless here. Wouldnt surprise me to see her implode today though, she has that kind of game , but what power and strength she has in her ground strokes. Very good serve, and great hands at the net for volleys. I hope she pans out.

Really surprised to see so many on agut too,really like berdych here and liking stosur too, a player who who can really implode as well but she loves this tourney and pretty dominant h2h number against Cibulkova, especially on this surface . She had a pretty dominant win this year on clay in Madrid a few weeks ago facing Cibulkova.

[frugalgambler]

Maybe I am missing something, but how can one consider RBA over a top-10 player in a 5-setter ? Is Byrdman injured or something ?

[gregm]

568-494 +44.03

still waiting on a couple of wagers. goerges total was written wrong. going to try another one of these cross sport parlays tonight, radwanska shattered last nights, always seems to be one wager that kills these .Ferrer has never dropped a set to seppi.

Miami ml/Ferrer/Lopez/Errani/Halep -113 risk 1.13

Miami ml/Ferrer/Lopez/Halep -131 risk 1.31

Ferrer/Jankovic/Kings (nhl) +125 risk 1

Miami ml/Petkovic/Errani/Ferrer/Lopez+115 risk 1

[Vinnie Paz]

Greg, what an excellent thread youre running here. Appreciate all the insight you offer . I remember you years back in the baseball section, hasn't seen you in forever. Hope you stick around
man! Thanks again

[gregm]

Hey Vinnie, really great to see you my friend. I will try and get back to baseball but so much going on this summer, starting soon the world cup has matches pretty much every day in june until july and wimbledon starting on june 26th. Usually summer is dead but this is probably the most wagering on sports in history, world cup is ten times the amount wagered on super bowl, crazy numbers.

I am going to try and get back to baseball full time after all star break, this is such a great month for gambling

3-1+2 units last night on these cross sport parlays so going to take a punt here again tonight

Ok city -2 (bought 1.5)/Berdych/Ferrer (mon) +164 risk 1

Chicago (nhl sun.)/Halep (mon)/Ferrer (mon) +127 risk 1

Chicago nhl sun./Sharapova/Djokovic +133 risk 1

Djokovic/Sharapova/Berdych/halep/Ferrer +138 risk 1

murray ( match in progress)-150 risk 1.5

gulbis talking about women tennisplayers

"“Hopefully they will not pursue professional tennis career. Hopefully. Because for a woman, it’s tough. I wouldn’t like my sisters to become professional tennis players. It’s tough choice of life,” Gulbis said, according to Stephanie Myles of Yahoo Sports.

“A woman needs to enjoy life a little bit more. Needs to think about family, needs to think about kids. What kids you can think about until age of 27 if you’re playing professional tennis, you know."

Femen in Paris could kidnap him.lol

Federer/Muguruza/Sharapova +110 risk 1

full doc on vice http://www.vice.com/en_au/vice-news/...emism-in-paris

[frugalgambler]

Props to Gulbis for speaking his mind. Femen kidnapping him, hmm ? I think Gulbis being a bad boy billionaire heir and all will thwart their plot, Austin Powers style.

Liking your leans. I am thinking about a small Muggz -1.5 sets/Berdych/Feds/Raonic parlay @+300. I am not usually a big fan of parlays, but this RG has been good to squares. Also, what do you think about Tsonga +2.5 sets@-110, I am a bit surprised at those odds. I think Tsonga will make it a match tomorrow.

[ManeOnFire]

To paraphrase, "Women need to stay in the kitchen."

[gregm]

will update record later, busy this morning but looking like a 2-5 day winning tennis matches and losing the hockey and nab. hockey is the worst sport to bet on for me. really liking some overs in these matches. In the monfils match. monfils has a huge edge in experience and the pressure of playing at this level in tourneys Monfils reaching four Grand Slam quarterfinals and lopez has never made a GS quarterfinals, home crowd behind monfils and great numbers fro monfils at the the FO.It is monfils so anything can happen, definitely dont see this a s a straight setter but we will see

Monfils o40.5 -107 risk 1.07

Monfils -3.5. -113 risk 1.13

Kuznetsova -137 risk 1.37

Kuznetsova has phenomenal numbers at this tourney and might be a worth a punt to win it all here. 2 final appearances here and one title. Overall better surface stats on clay than safarova and worth a punt to win this match and a futures wager as well

[Nyjrkm06]

Good luck Greg

[gregm]

Thanks ny.

2-1 +.93 today

575-502 +43.34

I am sure there will be some folks on muguruza tomorrow after she beat Serena but hard to argue with sharapovas phenomenal career numbers on clay and she has had a fantastic clay season.

She made the finals here last 2 years and beat Errani in 2012, and has been on a roll during clay season winning Stuttgart and Madrid. Maria crushed muguruza on clay last year in rome and this tournament is sharpovas to lose with Serena gone. I dont see much looking at the numbers that makes me think Muguruza has much of a chance here but we will see.

Sharapova -1.5 sets -131 risk 1.31

Sharapova/Djokovic/Errani (wed.) -115 risk 1.15

Sharpaova/Djokovic/Murray(wed.) +104 risk 1

[frugalgambler]

Hmm, but Muguruza v2.0 after that surgery she had at the end of last year is a different animal.

[gregm]

Maria is just keyed in this clay season and you are talking about a 19 year old who has never been to a grand slam quarterfinals versus a veteran who is 17-3 her whole career in Grand Slam quarterfinals. I am just going on the numbers and they are pretty good with mugu even this year but you have to look at the competition. looking at the surface stats, Marias numbers are just phenomenal on clay and she is in great form. If Muguruza can beat serena and sharapova in the same tourney , this 19 year old would be one of the stories of the year but I am more excited about a possible bouchard/sharapova match

Muguruza has only beat a few top 10 players and you have to really wonder how seriously serena and wozniacki take tennis as a full time career now. You just never know what tournament serena cares about, this is her a few days after the french open,crashing a wedding party on the beach and partying in miami with wozniacki, another one of muzuras best scalps.







Caroline Wozniacki ✔ @CaroWozniack@CaroWozniacki
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11:40 PM - 30 May 2014

[frugalgambler]

Nice greg. After seeing this info, I am probably not going to hedge my Masha's futures bet. I wanted to maybe take the over tomorrow or Muguruza +1.5 sets. You really think Bouchard can take care of CSN and then make it interesting vs Sharapova ? I actually thought Muguruza had a better chance to make it interesting.

[gregm]

I think that sharapova future is solid, she has dominated every other player left in the french open in h2h and stats, the only one I like as an outside shot is kuznetsova but she has a tough match against halep. Sharapova lost once to petkovic a few years ago but owns the h2h 3-1, she has dominate errani in h2h and no one else left has beat her but Kuz. Kuznetsova is the only one who has ever really giving her trouble out of the players left.

Sharapova has beaten A.radwanska in straight sets twice, Halep, Na Li and Stosur all in the last month or so. She looked fierce today from midway through second set and has looked like that for most of the clay season.

The straight set wager is always worrisome in a wta match and especially with sharapovas serve, if she starts serving up faults who knows, but their last match was over in little around an hour and sharapova is really dialed in lately . I dont really know about bouchard, I go on numbers and these young players really leave you little stats to work with.I thought that taylor towsend looked like the second coming of serena against cornet with her power and the next match she was awful.

Its like harabalos voulgaris says, he watches a ton of basketball but doesnt do much live wagering, "the eyes lie".

Muguruza may have been great against a maybe disinterested serena but can she keep it up against an in forms sharapova going after her first grand slam of the year.

[frugalgambler]

I did take >2 sets in Sharapova's match for 0.5u, but I also hedged a bit too much on Muggz to win the 3rd set. That girl can play. After that QF, the 2nd QF looked pretty lame. Although, I presume Bouchard might be able to make it interesting in the semis, but it will be much harder for her to steal a set, let alone the match.

[gregm]

Sharapova -1.5 sets -131 risk 1.31

Sharapova/Djokovic/Errani (wed.) -115 risk 1.15

Sharpaova/Djokovic/Murray(wed.) +104 risk 1

Parlays still open, waiting for the murray and errani match

You got a good sharapova future, so few of these players in the quarterfinals have even been this far, halep finally made it to the quarters this year in a grand slam, and a ton of nerves from these young players I am sure. Only errani and kuznetsova and sharpova have been here and sharapova has been dominant against errani.

Kuznetsova +4 -110 risk 1.1

Kuznetsova +1.5 sets +138 risk 1.38

Even if Halep crushes in straight sets I will take theses wagers at these numbers every time. Kuznetsova loves this tourney and has put up some incredible numbers at paris, 2 final appearances here and one title, 45-10 overall in her career at french open . She made it to the quarters last year before losing to Serena and has looked really impressive here so far beating Kvitova and Safarova.

Kuznetsova is a tough customer who has beaten all the greats in her career like Sharapova,Serena,Arad etc. Haleps having a good year and a few big scalps against A.radwanska ,who everyone is beating nowadays, and had a good run at doha this year beating players like Errani to get the title but Kuznetsova has been here before at slams and too good numbers here to pass this up.

Ferrer +2.5 sets -138 risk 1.38

[frugalgambler]

Liking Kuzzy myself, I think she can make it very very interesting. Not so sure about Ferrer. I think it will be mainly between his ears, if he can avoid the hiccups he might be able to steal a set. As for Sharapova, I think she might have her hands full with Bouchard already: Genie has already been in GS semis just four months ago. Also, what do you think about Errani 2-0, I think she will be able to frustrate Petko tomorrow.

[gregm]

Ferrer is one of the greatest players of our time who just happened to be playing with three of the greatest players of all time like Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Ferrer usually hits a wall against these big three. Ferrer is my favorite tennis player I have ever followed and a total fighter who will always give you your moneys worth in effort and endurance but if this a straight set victory for nadal, just like last years final with ferrer/nadal in paris and the year before in paris, it is par for the course for nadal in Paris.

Ferrer having some success beating Nadal in monte carlo and last few matches but this is a grand slam facing nadal who who is 63-1 at the French open since 2005. LOL. I just hope for one set. It is very -ev betting against nadal in paris in any fashion or form to say the least.

Errani is so impressive stat wise at this tourney and should justify a 2-0 set wager but I thought Sharapova would just absolutely crush mugu but serving and wta is a tenuous thing, always a risk with straight set wagers. Errani is very solid at this tourney, I have her in a open parlay with sharapova and djokovic and I would do the same thing even for the semis, maria shouldnt be beaten by bouchard and djokovic is a such great returner , berdych is a quitter. Gulbis is about to play tennis with a brick wall.


Mitch Hedberg:

"I play tennis, the thing that is depressing about tennis is that no matter how good I get, I'll never be as good as the wall, I played a wall once, their relentless ..."

Mithc hedberg rip

[frugalgambler]

Sharapova is 25-1 in 3-set matches on clay. Wow. Lost one match to Henin, who was as willful as Maria, if not more. Never knew you liked Hedberg.

[frugalgambler]

What do you think about Murray Monfils ? I have a small futures on both of them to win the quarter, with Monfils paying out twice as much as Murray. Do you think I should hedge on Murray GL ?

[gregm]

today 2-4 -2.94

577-506 +40.40

Rough day, watched kuze match and little bit of errani match. Kuznetsova has had a hip injury all season and seemed to aggravate that left side again, getting strapped after first set and just hobbled around the second, I am sure that 3 hour match with kvitova ddin't help her injury . She still may have had a tough time even if healthy with the way Halep played. Halep hit all the corners perfectly, opening the court and getting kuznetsova on the wrong foot throughout the match, really exploited kuznetsovas injury but she played a great match all around. Halep was 73% on first serves and hasnt lost a set here yet in Paris.

I have never seen a player rise this fast in the rankings from 57 to 4 in the world in one year, Halep hasnt been on my radar as most of her tourney wins were ones like last year at sofia and moscow and I really dont wager much tennis after the US Open and I dint see that madrid final this year where she lost to Maria. All of her titles have been in smaller tourneys but its hard to argue with this kind of rise in the rankings, 7 titles in the last year but this her first grand slam semifinal. She is having a pretty phenomenal year and its good for tennis to have people like halep and petkovic in the semis and finals rather than just the usual suspects like Serena and Maria.

Petkovic hasnt been in a semifinal Slam either, really didnt understand Erranis poor effort . She claimed to be tired . This was her quote after the match

Errani “She played a good match but it was me,” Errani said. “No energy. I was very tired. I don’t know why I had no power in my legs. It’s tough to play tennis like that.”

From an article about her problems with italian media

"It was a curious call, given she came to the quarter-finals without extreme grief and spent six hours and 23 minutes on court compared with Petkovic’s seven hours and 22 minutes. It seems the reason for her ennui may have resided off court and she was evasive when asked if a row with the Italian media after her doubles match had affected her performance and focus. “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

Really tough to get much from either of these matches today and staying away from these larger handicaps and the wta and set wagers tomorrow. Halep seems to be the play here.

Halep/Sharapova -136 risk 1.36

vegas parlay card

Kings(nhl)/Djokovic/Halep/Sharapova/Nadal +279 risk 1

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Errani laid an egg. And Kuzzy aggravated her injury. Pretty bad breaks. Nice hit on Ferrer though; Nadal however looks scary good. I think I will have to hedge my Djoker futures a bit.

[gregm]

Nadal looks phenomenal, I would hedge for sure a little at this number for nadal futures. I think Nadal just made a strategic decision to wait for the French, Nadal has complained quite often about how the tennis year is too long and it is way too long for players to stay healthy and have long careers. You have to let some tournaments go and get the big ones like the French. Ferrer took a set off Nadal which is pretty impressive but Ferrer is 32 years old and getting near the end of his great career. Ferrer just had way too may unforced errors after that first set, just didnt look like the typical Ferrer after that second set. Nadal is playing as good as I have seen him play in a long while.

[GoBlue77]

Nadal looks phenomenal, I would hedge for sure a little at this number for nadal futures. I think Nadal just made a strategic decision to wait for the French, Nadal has complained quite often about how the tennis year is too long and it is way too long for players to stay healthy and have long careers. You have to let some tournaments go and get the big ones like the French. Ferrer took a set off Nadal which is pretty impressive but Ferrer is 32 years old and getting near the end of his great career. Ferrer just had way too may unforced errors after that first set, just didnt look like the typical Ferrer after that second set. Nadal is playing as good as I have seen him play in a long while.

news flash, ferrer admitting to tanking the match. he may lose points for admitting that. nadal hasn't been "great", good yes but not great.

[frugalgambler]

GoBlue, did you actually watch Nadal-Ferrer ? The first two sets were some of the best claycourt tennis I have ever seen. Ferrer probably played a match of his life and still lost the second set. After that, he just gave up. Djoker will not give up so easily, but it will be a fierce battle and I would say Nadal has an upper leg, just based on his claycourt wizardry. Plus, Djoker most likely will not have a cakewalk through Gulbis, while Murray should not be able to hang with Nadal for too long.

More interesting is what to do with Halep tomorrow. Halep 2-0 or not Halep 2-0 ? She looks pretty sharp right now, but nerves can become a factor.

[gregm]

Great isnt the right word, totally dominant is how Nadal has looked so far. These are the finals results of nadals wins before the ferrer match. Nadal had given up all of 23 games in 4 matches

6-1 6-2 6-1
6-2 7-5 6-2
6-2 6-2 6-3
6-0 6-3 6-0

Ferrer took a set off Nadal which he is never done at Roland garros, only a handful of players have ever taken a set against Nadal since 2005 at Roland Garros. These are the results the last two years Ferrer has had losing to Nadal at the French.

Finals last year
Nadal over Ferrer 6-3 6-2 6-3
2012
Nadal over Ferrer 6-2 6-2 6-1

[gregm]

GoBlue, did you actually watch Nadal-Ferrer ? The first two sets were some of the best claycourt tennis I have ever seen. Ferrer probably played a match of his life and still lost the second set. After that, he just gave up. Djoker will not give up so easily, but it will be a fierce battle and I would say Nadal has an upper leg, just based on his claycourt wizardry. Plus, Djoker most likely will not have a cakewalk through Gulbis, while Murray should not be able to hang with Nadal for too long.

More interesting is what to do with Halep tomorrow. Halep 2-0 or not Halep 2-0 ? She looks pretty sharp right now, but nerves can become a factor.

Just saw this fg, throw in her parlay and live longer if you are watching these matches live, these straight set bets with these wta players is a sure ticket to a heart attack with the serving in the wta at times.lol. Kuznetsova was literally hobbling for points in the second set and halep still gifted her an entire game and points with double faults and her nerves at the end.

I feel healthier with djokovic and nadal parlay wagers with halep than most set or handicap wagers. Maybe sharapova as well, djokovic/nadal/halep comes in around -145/1.69 , adding sharapova makes it a +130/2.30 wager. Much better for cardiovascular health with parlays watching these big names like djokovic and nadal close it out at these smaller numbers live than stressing these handicaps and set wagers.

[gregm]

Halep/Sharapova -136 risk 1.36

Kings(nhl)/Djokovic/Halep/Sharapova/ Nadal +279 risk 1 still open

Spurs -2 (buy3)/Djokovic/ Nadal +102 risk 1

S.Errani/R.Vinci(doubles)/Sharapova -2/ Nadal +158 risk 1

Nadal -6 -145 risk 1.45

Nadal to win french open +135 risk 1

Nadal -1.5 sets +118 risk 1

[bababooey13]

sick avatar.

"I am not addicted to gambling although I am addicted to sitting in a semi-circle" - hedberg

[amolg24]

Nadal -1.5 sets +118 risk 1

Is that right? Did you mean -2.5 sets?

[gregm]

Halep/Sharapova -136 risk 1.36

Kings(nhl)/Djokovic/Halep/Sharapova/ Nadal +279 risk 1 still open

Spurs -2 (buy3)/Djokovic/ Nadal +102 risk 1

S.Errani/R.Vinci(doubles)/Sharapova -2/ Nadal +158 risk 1 still open

Nadal -6 -145 risk 1.45

Nadal to win french open +135 risk 1 still open

Nadal -2.5 sets +118 risk 1

5-0 past two days +6.99

582-506 +47.39

2.5 sets was correct, wrote that late last night. Hedberg was one of the greats





















Mitch Hedberg: “I got a business card because I wanna win some lunches. That’s what my business card says: Mitch Hedberg, Potential Lunch Winner. Gimme a call, maybe we’ll have lunch. If I’m lucky!






All McDonalds commercials end the same way: "prices and participation may vary." I want to open my own McDonalds and not participate in anything. I want to be a stubborn McDonalds owner. "Cheeseburgers? Nope. We got spaghetti!…And blankets- Mitch Hedberg

[gregm]

S.Errani/R.Vinci(doubles)/Sharapova -2/ Nadal +158 risk 1 still open

Nadal to win french open +135 risk 1 still open

Lynx(wnba)/Sharapova +111 risk 1

I considered that halep +1.5 set wager, Sharapova almost seems to thrive off the pressure of three setters but wondering how Halep will do on the grand stage facing one of the best players in the world . Maria had 9 double faults against Bouchard , serving will be the key here and halep has put up some fantastic numbers with her first serve percentages.

Petkovic did have her chances in that second set, Halep wont get those gifts against a mentally tougher Maria if this is a tight match. Huge advantage for sharapova with clay stats and Maria having a great clay season and on clay for a while now, 53-4 on clay in the last 57. Some pretty phenomenal numbers on clay. I think she bears down and gets her first grand slam of the year but a 3 setter wouldnt be a shocker. Lynx are rolling 7-0 and facing a dismal seattle squad. Taking a parlay just need these two to win and I dont have to sweat 3.5 game handicap or set wager and marias serving.