Nadal [1] vs. Murray [6], Men's Semifinal

**jjgold** · 09-06-08, 03:43 PM

Nadal has no shot, Murray is having a good year and is a solid player.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-07-08, 02:06 PM

For anyone keeping up today during football, this one resumes at 3pm CT/4pm ET. Nadal up 3-2 in the 3rd.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 02:12 PM

eaglephan, i hope the jets-dolphins game is over by 4 pm ET so they can show us the tennis match from the beginning

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-07-08, 02:52 PM

LoL! Yeah they should show the footage from the first ball on Saturday & pretend we're all rubes! I hope Nadal at least takes a set and extends Murray. Federer is gonna be a big price vs. Murray I think because of the lack of rest, etc. Intrigued to see that line still. I really would not be surprised though if Rafa came out and made this a 5 setter today. The weather delay was the best thing for him.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 02:58 PM

i actually think the weather delay hurt nadal, because:

a) he had momentum in the 3rd set

b) if they would've played it thru, going to a 4th and 5th set on the same day wouldve been an advantage for the more physically fit and battle-tested rafa

c) the day's rest in between gives andy the mental and physical rest he needs to re-focus

i think this clearly benefits murray

my 2 pennies (which are probably worthless)

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-07-08, 04:05 PM

Nadal saves the 3rd set. Going to the 4th.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Nadal saves the 3rd set. Going to the 4th.

he was up a break when play resumed so i'm not surprised he won the 3rd set

if nadal wins the 4th set, murray should not even come out for the 5th set because i think he'll get destroyed

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-07-08, 04:17 PM

Murray serving superbly so far, and getting multiple break points. He's going to win this.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Murray serving superbly so far, and getting multiple break points. He's going to win this.

he's looking good, but the guy he has to put away is a freaking machine, just remember this, it won't be easy i promise you

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 04:19 PM

he just cant finish the break vs rafa, rafa is relentless

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-07-08, 04:30 PM

Told ya I smelled a 5 setter coming. I don't think Rafa is 100% even - not just fatigue wise, but physically. I'd be surprised if he doesn't take off at least a tournament or two following this.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

He's going to win this.

another definitive statement by a poster that is losing steam by the minute

murray down a break and looking to lose the 4th set

good luck beating the #1 player in a 5 setter where you have lost all of the momentum

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-07-08, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

another definitive statement by a poster that is losing steam by the minute

Hey, I'm happy. Like I posted, 200GBP on 3-1 at +1000, already matced off that 200 at betfair (at 2.0) so I can't lose money now.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Hey, I'm happy. Like I posted, 200GBP on 3-1 at +1000, already matced off that 200 at betfair (at 2.0) so I can't lose money now.

not losing money is ALWAYS a nice thing

nice work

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-07-08, 04:56 PM

The nervy bit now is whether to lay off the whole lot, or not. At present stand to net +1722GBP ($3000) if Murray takes this set, and I have to say I think he's favourite the way he's serving and returning.

Alternatively, I cash in right now, lay at 2.0, guarantee half that profit. My value thinking says I should leave it.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-07-08, 05:00 PM

Compromise, cashed in a little :-)

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-07-08, 05:05 PM

Wow. Fatigue really got Nadal in the end. Murray had him totally gassed. Impressive victory. Any guesses on our championship line? If they're giving Murray at anything like they did against Nadal, foolish not to take a try I think.

Fed at anything -200 or less.
Murray otherwise.

That is the value IMO.

**hoopster42** · 09-07-08, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Compromise, cashed in a little :-)

nice job!

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-07-08, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Impressive victory. Any guesses on our championship line? If they're giving Murray at anything like they did against Nadal, foolish not to take a try I think.

Murray is a nightmare matchup for Federer - drives him totally nuts with his retriever game. The last two matches Murray has won fairly easily, and Murray is a _hugely_ better player now, while Federer is considerably weaker. Murray even won in straight sets two years ago at Cincinatti, at Federer's peak, and when Murray had just turned 19. Federer's only win came when Murray was just out of the juniors.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Federer fan and was delighted to see him win yesterday (despite being on Djokovic for the tournament). You can't ignore Murray's record against him though.

I make it pretty much 50/50, and that only cos of Federer's experience.