Andy has lost all 5 previous meetings. I've got Murray +5.5 games.
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16Rafa wins -3760%7Andy wins +3460%2Rafa -5.5 games0%0Andy +5.5 games0%1Over 38.5 games0%1Under 38.5 games0%0Rafa wins 1st set -2700%0Andy wins 1st set +2350%1Rafa wins 3-0 +1470%1Rafa wins 3-1 +2610%3Rafa wins 3-2 +7750%0Andy wins 3-2 +11000%0Andy wins 3-1 +10500%0Andy wins 3-0 +19000%0The poll is expired.
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If you're a value sniffer bet Andy, if you want to bet on who will win the match in the here and now, take Rafa ML, or Andy +5.5 games.Comment -
Nadal fried Fish, while Murray had the best game IMO yet in the US OPEN against Del Potro - 4 hr game -
My money is on Nadal to win 3-1, however Andy +5.5 games would be the best bet.Comment -
This is definitely the "other" semifinal with Fed/Djoko taking the limelight. I really like how Andy Murray has stepped up late in the summer hard court season, but it's just really hard to see him beating Rafa. I think the only thing Rafa wants more than to win the US Open is to win it OVER Federer. Still, in looking back to the Aussie Open in 2007 - Murray pushed Nadal to 5 when Murray was no where near the level he is playing at now. IF THE WEATHER - I.E. WIND - IS A FACTOR, I'm saying it right now, Murray can win. This sets up similar to Cincy where Djokovic entered the favorite, but Murray wore him out in two tie breaks. Murray must serve well. His return game will be there & isn't that far below Rafa's. One word could help more than others: Beijing.
My finger is on the trigger for shits & giggles with Murray because I feel nostalgic like I did when I took him in Cincy, but at the end of the day - I think I just watch as a fan .... maybe.
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Murray MLComment -
Nadal is the favorite but I would go with Murray since Rafa Nadal seems tired. Winning French open, Wimbledon and the gold in the Olympics seems so tiring and perhaps Murray is the better player between them at this time.
Nice.Comment -
My numbers have Rafa as about -444 over Murray. I'm on Rafa. They also say Federer should be about -150 over Djoker so I am on both favorites tomorrow.Comment -
Rafa hasn't exactly proved anything on the hardcourts in the US open. I would go with Murray.
I really hope Rafa is favored again in the finals... I will bet big against himComment -
Murray was way better against Wawrinka, where he was simply breathtaking - he was decidedly wobbly against Del Potro. If he plays like in the latter match he'll lose, but if like the former, he's going to win the tournament. The problem with Murray is always the consistency though.
On the other side, Nadal has looked tired repeatedly, and would have lost against Fish if he hadn't gone error-crazy (53 unforced errors). On the similar paced courts in Cincinatti, Nadal lost fairly convincingly to Djokovic (who then lost to Murray in the final). A Murray win here would not be a shock imo.
Anyway, hunting value one fact jumps out: Nadal does not lose over 5 sets. Given that, the Murray win odds distribution in the correct score are way off. At present, best prices are....
Murray 3-0 +1800 (stanjames)
Murray 3-1 +1000 (willhill)
Murray 3-2 +1200 (stanjames)
From the 5dimes line, Murray has 24% chance of winning. I'd say Murray 3-2 should be more like +2000, given Nadal's ridiculously good 5 set record. As a result, chance of a Murray 3-1 win is around 14%, so it's a no brainer to take +1000 imo.
200GBP ($350ish) on Murray 3-1 at +1000 for me.Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 09-06-08, 08:07 AM.Comment -
Nadal in 4
DJ in 4Comment -
Murray ain't gonna win no Open.
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Probably not, but he's certainly got a chance. As above, that match against Wawrinka was a much better performance than anything Nadal, Federer or Djokovic have produced in the tournament - all three have looked pretty subpar.
Nadal is looking tired, and if Murray can just get past him he's favourite for the title imo. He certainly knows how to beat Djokovic, given he did so in the Cincinatti and Canada masters (both in straight sets remember), and has a 2-1 record against Federer (and the loss was when Murray was 18).
It's all about the Nadal match - he's a bad clash of styles for Murray, but this is Nadal's worst surface and Murray's best.Comment -
Murray routes Nadal in the 1st, 6-2.
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Nadal up 5-4. Murray serving now. Sounds like a great match by Murray. Hope CBS picks it up LIVE and doesn't insult us with replay coverage of the first set.Comment -
Dumb asses at CBS going to insult the public & Show Nadal-Murray from the first ball. Stupid.Comment -
Nadal will win and kick Rogers ass to complete the trifecta.
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Nadal fukin killing me this match that cocksucker, playing like fukin Safina yesterday
. On top of that CBS is showing tape delayed coverage WHO THE FUK WANTS TO WATCH THE BEGINNING OF A MATCH THAT IS IN A 2ND SET TIEBREAK THAT WILL DETERMINE WHO WINS
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Murray up 2 sets!! Could Nadal lose in straights?!?!
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****in unreal Nadal sucks, just my luck hes gonna get beat by a beginner in straight sets
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Final odds are gonna be intriguing. And yes I am saying Nadal is DONE. Murray has beaten Federer 2 of 3, including 2 straight and once this year in Dubai. Interested to see that price for sure because I haven't a clue where it would be. Murray will get sold short after beating #1. Fed though will still be the prohibitive fave with 4 championships in his pocket and a win over #3. If they're stupid enough to give you +300 on Murray again, take it.Comment -
Nadal finally breaks Murray, whoever had that 3-1 Murray is looking good right now, but I'm prayin for the miracle comeback for my shitbox -340 bet on Nadal
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Heh. Another reason I cannot nor will I ever bet a single tennis match at over -175. Days like today bro. There is no safe bet at those odds in a Slam Semi or Final. Hope you get a ridiculous comeback, it would be epic & all the more reason to take Federer in the final perhaps.Comment -
It is now raining moderately in Brooklyn... Usually the rain takes 20mins or so to move to Queens... Dunno if they finish this match on time or not... Will be interesting to see the line if they postpone it.Comment -
How long till this Tropical Storm Hanna goes away? Will they play tonight?Comment -
A delay helps Murray here. Nadal had momentum there, and if it gets rescheduled till tomorrow then he has no long match stamina advantage. Also, Murray needs a word from his coach atm, to get back to his tactics of the first two sets (flat to the forehand, draw the short ball, hit winner into corner)
On the minus side for Murray, if rescheduled for tomorrow it'll be on Ashe, which is a little slower and thus favouring Nadal's game.
For the final: a lot will depend on the scheduling, as Federer's extra rest becomes a factor. Nadal would need all his energy to beat Federer on fast hard court, and tiredness is starting to show in his game now from the ridiculous amount of tennis he'd played lately. Murray will also be in trouble in a final if this one goes the full 5 sets, although he's pretty fit these days, and dropped out of the Olympics pretty early (I kinda suspect deliberately) so maybe has enough in the tank.Comment -
rain delay good for us viewers because by the time the rain ceases and court is dried, cbs *should* pick it up live, i use this phrase very carefully thoughComment -
do you have eurosport on cable/satellite in the states? they show it live.
also, myp2p.eu has a few links, tape delay online should prolly be around 15 seconds.Comment -
justin.tv always has links to major games.Comment -
Tell you what. If the rain delays this until tomorrow, which it seems like it might (Ladies Final pushed to SUN) - God may just love Rafa Nadal. This is probably the single best thing to happen to him in this tournament because I think the weather conditions were really effecting his game.Comment -
It has been rescheduled and the final will start at 5 on Monday.Comment
