Tomic v Raonic prop for points

[yisman]

Mitchell won, nice job.

[Optional]

I'm on a mini hot run with the tennis this week. 10-2. Wish I had bet more. Although saying this will probably end it.

Only took a parlay so far today though. Lopez just took the first set so hopefully that will be 11-2




Glad you reminded me it's just about time to stop working and start capping for Burnie today.

[Optional]

Ben Mitchell is the dog again today against Tsung-Hua Yang.

And I think he will win again. In fact on paper this looks like an even better bet than yesterday.

Watched his match yesterday. He was solid on serve, has a strong serve volley game and gave Duckworth all sorts of problems holding serve constantly. He did choke in a pretty big way when it came to serving out the match at 5-2 in the third ( 2 or 3 double faults end on end) But he came back strong and confident to close it out next serve.

Tsung-Hua Yang has had a great run in Challengers, but almost always on Chinese soil, and is not nearing ATP level as Mitchell is imho.

[yisman]

alright I'll do it again. Let's get it!

Need to see how many of my books offer challengers. Bovada and 5 Dimes do.

Don't think Heritage or DSI do.

12:00aATP Challenger Tour - Burnie Challenger, Australia Preview
If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.

Mitchell, B
EVEN

Yang, T-H
-130

413 Benjamin Mitchell -105
414 Tsung-Hua Yang -135

first time I've ever seen Bodog/Bovada with less vig on something than 5 Dimes.

5D dealing 40 cent challenger lines

[Optional]

They have been the only out in town until Bovada just started I think.

What's the limit on Challengers there do you know?

[yisman]

well, they'll take at least 250. I can see that just from testing. I'll look to see whether they list limits anywhere.

edit: OK, they list limits. 500 on MLs, 300 on props, 500 on futures.

As high as can be expected, really.

[Optional]

Geez, 5D does have some competition now. $100 ML there.

[yisman]

5D is trash for this then.

Five times the limits and lower vig, too. 5 Dimes likes to say they're better than other books due to vig, but of course they're not reducing vig on challenging; they're increasing it.

It appears that, at least for now, Bovada is not distinguishing between regular tennis and Challenger events. Maybe they will eventually, since you say they just started. When did you first see Challenger there? Or have you looked there at all?

I bet Mitchell yesterday because Bovada's price was 10 cents better, but I didn't pay attention to the vig. Now I realize it was ten cents better because of the vig.

[Optional]

I saw EaglesPhan mention they now had it in his thread yesterday. Hadn't looked myself yet though.

He mentioned that their prices on the dogs where better but not the juice difference.

Be interesting to see if Bovada cut their lines/limits back or 5D raise theirs first. Ah, competition. Whouda thought we would see that in the US market.

[yisman]

right now they're both offering the same on Mitchell because 5 Dimes moved 5 cents.

it was -105/-135. Now it's even/-140

Bovada holding tight at even/-130

[Optional]

Still 7 hours till match time. People will look at Yang's Challenger record and back him in I bet. I probably should have waited.

Added a half unit parlay on these for +235 (Sugita is my tip to win tourney btw)

[yisman]

Wonder what Lu is doing in Challengers.

I'll put that parlay in as well. Much better price on Sugita, much worse on Lu (heavy favorites on Bovada are always terrible). I bet some on Sugita straight.
Parlay (3 picks) Lu, Y-H -500 Mitchell, B EVEN Sugita, Y -210

[yisman]

Still 7 hours till match time. People will look at Yang's Challenger record and back him in I bet. I probably should have waited.

Good hit on Sugi.

But line moved 30 cents towards Mitchell!


Wed 2/1 413 Benjamin Mitchell
-130 12:00AM 414 Tsung-Hua Yang -110


Can still get him even at Bovada.

[Optional]

Think you are looking at yesterdays result. Sugita hasn't played yet. Watching Lu clean up Reid though

Liking the line movement of Mitchell. Just a small example of how bad I am at picking which way the price will go.

[yisman]

yeah it's confusing when I'm on American time and it says match today. Should've realized it must started after midnight.

[yisman]

Lu finishing off Reid. (but seriously. Reid 9-18 career vs. Lu 158-115, and Lu beat Roddick to get to the 2010 Wimbledon quarters)

Sugita took the first three games from Zhang.

[Optional]

Last week in the Honolulu SF Sugita smashed Ginepri in the first set and was up a break in the second, when he folded and lost the match.

Hope we are not seeing deja vu here. Same deal, wins first 6-1 and breaks to go up 2-0 in second, only to lose the next 6 games. Including being broken for the set so Zhang serves first in the decider.

Uphold my faith and turn this around please Sugi!!



*EDIT: Sweet, Sugita breaks in the first game of final set. Go you good thing.

[yisman]

2-0! Let's get this parlay!

[yisman]

challenger tennis bears a strange resemblance to the WTA

[Cross]

Anyone on the Challenger circuit would beat the top player in the WTA without breaking a sweat, so where is the resemblance?

[Optional]

challenger tennis bears a strange resemblance to the WTA

Was thinking the same thing watching Sugita match score, but then realized I can't recall ever feeling really confident about any WTA bet. But sometimes I do with Challenger!

[yisman]

still sick and can't sleep but Mitchell won

you can take 10 points off the loan

before I went to sleep I saw that he was broken to open the match, but he rebounded to win in straights

[Optional]

Thanks mate

Hope you feel better soon. Nothing bad I hope?


Not so sure about young Ben today. Don't know anything about this Jimmy Wang character. He's only played 10 matches total in the last 4 years, and none in 2011, but appears to have come back in nice form just judging from match scores. (apart from that one set I highlighted)



The books have him at slight favorite finally, but still showing no respect at -130 imho. Concerns me when books consistently put up odds on a player I don't 'get'.

Didn't really expect Mitchell to go deep to be honest, just thought he was an excellent bet against Duckworth in first round, but he seems to have another winnable matchup here again today. So why not re-invest a little of the profit I guess.

As long as Sugita doesn't slip into WTA mode again, he should dispose of the Chinese journeyman Chen.

And Millman is better than Groth. (but both too unreliable to be too sure)

7 units up for the tourney, so not going to risk much today. Have just gone with splitting a unit on these two parlays so far.

Mitchell/Sugita +107 for .75u
Mitchell/Sugita/Millman +257 for .25u

Might take a swing at Udomchoke to upset Lu too. Would like a bit better than the +168 5D has up on him though really.

Want to give me +200 for a points bet on it? (on/off loan)

[yisman]

conjunctivitis today to add on to the cold

if my boss would let me take time off work maybe I could get better.

I'll look at the rest of your post now.

[yisman]

Sorry about the bet. I would've had to look at 5 Dimes and matchstat before deciding so maybe I would've taken it.

Just read your post now and they're in the second set so too late.

[Optional]

Udomchoke tried hard not to win. Gave up a double break in 1st to let Lu get back to a tiebreaker, then almost saem in 2nd. Couldn;t serve it out at 5-4 so needed a tie breaker win too.

Was funny how much Lu tightened up and made unforced errors during both breakers. Anyway, straight sets to the underdog.

Ben Mitchell gave up 7 double faults in the first set. Including two in 9th game to hand Wang the set.

Let's hope he can turn that around and take this to three.


You're boss is a goose for even wanting you at work with conjunctivitis imho. Contagious stuff. Not really fair to other employees I think.

[Optional]

Not looking good.. now up to 11 double faults... oops make that 12 with the second in a row to give Wang the double break in second set . 0-4 now

Oh well, think this kid will be a money earner next week in Coloundra anyway... and god help the Challenger tour if/when he gets that serve under better control.

[yisman]

^^ I agree. Hopefully I can stay home tomorrow. I'm working as a legal assistant so don't have much say in anything.

Today was really bad. Haven't been able to see clearly all day. The doctor prescribed eye drops for this and azithromycin for what he called an "upper respiratory" thing.

Glad I didn't bet any tennis today. As for losing the double break, there's a reason his name is Udomchoke. Lu should be embarrassed, as should Mitchell. Weird stuff in Burnie.

[Optional]

Glad I went small too. Still 6 units up. Very happy with that for a low level tourney like this.

If it's bad enough to affect your vision you should be careful with it. My ex got a bad case of it a few years back that she didn't get on top of it fast enough and it scarred her eyes so later in life she was unable to get laser eye surgery to correct her vision.

[yisman]

going to keep trying eye drops and see how it is in the morning. not much else I can do but it's a real PITA. It keeps producing more gunk, too.

[Optional]

Different juice for different Challenger events at both Bodog (35/45) and Bovada (30/40) today.

Bodog

Bovada


5D still at 40 on both

[yisman]

Bovada in line with what they were before. 30 cent lines. The higher the line, they increase the vig.

[Optional]

you were right before that i was getting mixed up quoting cents and US lines. I grew up thinking in fractionals/decimals and still don't get my head around the way Americans look at lines sometimes.

7.17% Bodog
6.37% Bovada
5.75% 5D

But that just brings me back to the comment yesterday that Bovada has less juice...

Talking about how many cents in a line is a bit confusing on it's own, to me anyway. Maybe I'm still missing something.

Was thinking about joining another book for an extra challenger out, probably just should go with bet365 though.

[yisman]

Bovada has less vig. On higher lines they do have more vig, but that's always how it's been there. You can't bet big favorites there.

Bovada is dealing -115/-115 (or -130/even, etc.) while 5 Dimes is dealing -120/-120.

[yisman]

As for cents, it's the easiest way of talking about it.

If a book is giving you -120/+110 on baseball moneylines, it is referred to as a "dimeline". DSI did that for MLB moneylines last year, but only for the ones near even. As it went up, vig increased.

5 Dimes was doing "nickel" overnight moneylines for MLB, meaning you'd see lines like -122/+117.

Bovada will deal 20 cent lines on major sports, except on bigger MLs and on in play (they have 40 cent vig for in play. This was changed in 2011 ). For stuff like soccer and tennis, they're not going to give 20 cent lines. 30 (tennis) or 40 (soccer spreads/totals) on non-major sports (from an American perspective).