Tomic v Raonic prop for points

[Optional]

Raonic ranked 25th
Tomic ranked 38th

Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

Raonic -13 -110
Tomic +13 +100

Outright
Raonic -300
Tomic +250

Max bet is to win 200.

Prices are valid until start of the Tomic v Federer match.



If you know (or are pretty certain) I'd take your word. We can settle up on 1st April. Please don't ask otherwise.
If you are a Tennis Forum regular (outside Slams) or have over 1000 posts and 1yr+ forum membership, post up 10% now for action.
Anyone else, please post up fully for action.

[yisman]

Not posting up :|


Tomic +13 +100, risk 25

[Optional]

Not posting up :| Tomic +13 +100, risk 25

You're on.

[Optional]

Anyone else want a piece of this before I adjust the odds to take into account the Raonic loss in the next half hour or so?

[shari91]

give me a sec... i'll be in

[shari91]

Hey Opti - Are they all in bets ie if a player gets injured in Feb and doesn't play again until past April? Just making sure

[shari91]

Actually either way, I'll put 100 on Tomic +13 +100. If you want me to post up, let me know.

[Optional]

Actually either way, I'll put 100 on Tomic +13 +100. If you want me to post up, let me know.

Nah that's fine. You're on.

Got caught up playing poker. Will redo odds a bit later if anyone else wants a go first.

Think I'll add a 3 way with Nishikori too.

[Optional]

Hey Opti - Are they all in bets ie if a player gets injured in Feb and doesn't play again until past April? Just making sure

Yes, action no matter what happens.

[yisman]

Tomic +13, risk 175
Tomic +250, risk 20

[Optional]

Tomic +13, risk 175 Tomic +250, risk 20

You're on.



Betting still available up until start of the Tomic/Fed match.

Will update odds after it's over.

[Optional]

The +13 was a bit of a gift.

Updated Odds

Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

Raonic -3½ -110
Tomic +3½ -110

Outright
Raonic -245
Tomic +150

3 Way with Nishikori
Raonic -130
Tomic +185
Nishikori +100

Max bet is to win 200.

[yisman]

that 3 way line is a ways off.

[Optional]

that 3 way line is a ways off.

40 cents juice on a 3 way prop isn't off. The other two are just low in comparison.

[yisman]

That isn't 40 cents juice!

A no juice three way with even odds would be +200 a side.

We need to send you back to bookmaking school.

[Optional]

Add it up if you like. 41.03 cents actually.

And give me a break Yis, I only had to think about some juice to help cover your first day gift

[Optional]

Sorry make that 39.23 cents. 41.03 would have been with Roanic at -140

[yisman]

3 lines are:

56.52%
50%
35.09%

Adds up to 141.61%

[Optional]

Oh yeah 141.61%... I had Nishikori 10 cents higher in my calcs the second time, excuse me I'm a bit tired.

But at the risk of sounding a bit thick here, isn't that 41.61 cents?

[yisman]

Cents is a little different, I think. If you went with cents, it'd be off by even more, but the fairest way of looking at "hold" is to do the implied probabilities of each line and seeing what it adds up to. Here, the bookie's hold would be 41.61%.

[Optional]

How do I calculate how many "cents" is in the line then?

But my initial point still stands I think. Call it cents or hold or whatever, 40% overround is not off for a prop market.

[Optional]

Updated Odds

Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

Raonic -3½ -110
Tomic +3½ -110

Outright
Raonic -210
Tomic +135

3 Way with Nishikori
Raonic -105
Tomic +185
Nishikori -120

Max bet is to win 200.

[yisman]

Can I do Raonic -3.5 (-110), 110 to win 100?

[Optional]

Can I do Raonic -3.5 (-110), 110 to win 100?

Yes.

[yisman]

ok add that to my bets then

[Optional]

Done

[Optional]

New rankings released.


Updated Odds

Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

Raonic -1½ -110
Tomic +1½ -110


3 Way with Nishikori
Raonic +145
Tomic +165
Nishikori -180

Max bet is to win 100.


[ATTACH]37127[/ATTACH]

[yisman]

Raonic -1½ -110, 55 to win 50

[Optional]

You're on. Added to the sheet.

Nice result for Nishikori eh! Top 20. Wonder who the last Japanese was to do that.

[yisman]

so is Raonic expected to lose a lot of points soon?

[Optional]

Well maybe not lose, but he won the San Jose 250 and got another 300 points for runner up in the Memphis 500 during this period last year, so he can only make 200 max by winning both this time, and will more likely lose 100+ over those 2 weeks.

It will all come down to the last two 1000 events though. Raonic made 75 points and the other two both made 35 points in those 2 last year. And this year all three of them are more ready for those two events imho. A semi-final or finals appearance in those should be enough for any of them to take it. That's my thinking anyway.

Should be a good finish.

[Optional]

Updating Odds (after a re-think)

Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

Raonic -1½ -110
Tomic +1½ -110


3 Way with Nishikori
Raonic +170
Tomic +180
Nishikori -220

Max bet is 100 risk+/win-.

[yisman]

still not biting on the 3 way

Well maybe not lose, but he won the San Jose 250 and got another 300 points for runner up in the Memphis 500 during this period last year, so he can only make 200 max by winning both this time, and will more likely lose 100+ over those 2 weeks.

Yeah that's what I mean. He's losing points because during this upcoming period last year, he did better than the others.

[Optional]

Oh well. Hopefully I'll get a chance to balance out the action before this ends. None of them playing this week, which will drop 20 from Milos for Joburg last year, and whatever points Tomic got for the Burnie Challenger last year.

Then it's Davis Cup.

Where they play the week after that, 13th Feb tournies, could make a difference too. I suspect all three might opt for the San Jose 250 event, But there is a also an indoors event in Rotterdam for 500 points on and if one of them opts for that and does well it could shake things right up too.

10th in the 12pm... sucks to me today.

I'm quite keen on a dog at Burnie today btw, Ben Mitchell to beat Duckworth.

[yisman]

I'll try to bet on it later