EP36's Tennis Elbow

[EaglesPhan36]

I thought Almagro or Gasquet was going to pull an upset today, so since I didn't play Gasquet ... watch that fukk win.

Last night I was sitting there and I said just take both Almagro and Gasquet. One wins, you earn some profit. Decided to try to stay limited in the # of plays and skipped it. Gascan about to wrap it up. As such, with respect to my brain which actually seems to be working in tune with tennis today - I will be playing Tsonga small on the ML [+305] @ a one set book. Sticking w/ my thoughts this week that Del Potro's knee will lead him to bow out either tank job or retirement. Had no issues vs. Youzhny, but Djokovic looms in the next round ... so who wants it less here? Tsonga could probably out tank me on clay.

[shimeon40]

unbelievable eagle..i played almagro..friggin mug..u will lose more than u win on that prick..murrays a goose

[JohnnyRudeboy]

EP, passed on Ferrer and grabbed Flavia Pennetta instead thanks to some of what you wrote. Outcome was the same but less stressful. Cheers!

[EaglesPhan36]

Cool bro. Glad you dug out of that hole a little.

Tsonga ... boom.

[gators0708]

Cool bro. Glad you dug out of that hole a little.

Tsonga ... boom.

Great call on that, Del Po looked out of it the whole match!

[baskets]

Here are my plays against the tennis genius

Stosur -2.5 -125
Djokovic under 19.5 -110
Wawrinka under 21.5 -110
Kerber -3 -115

reasoning: Gooney Goo Goo

qqq 1-3, 25%
Eagles 400-600, 40%

got to give the nod to Eagles

[JohnnyRudeboy]

and right back in it. ******* Heat. ******* NBA.

[Snakes Gould]

ever since qqq came in, EP has been on point. maybe you need more haters?

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Rome

The Big Four are all expected to be in action in the final tune-up for the French Open. This should be a tournament to pay attention to in regards to what might transpire at Roland Garros. The fiasco of the blue clay in Madrid left several of the players - notably Djokovic and Nadal - with bad tastest in their mouths and poor results. This week's event should give us a truer sense of where everyone is at on the red clay that we'll see at Roland Garros.

Djokovic Quarter
The defending Champ in Rome has a good early draw and some interesting potential in the later rounds. In the top half, Djokovic will contend with veteran South American dirtballers in Chela and Monaco along with Radek Stepanek. Bernard Tomic should provide a nice steamroller for Djokovic first up potentially, that or a qualifier. Chela has been in pretty poor form this season, so Stepanek may have the lead in advancing from that match. Monaco could be an interesting guy in this draw if he's recovered from an ankle strain from Monte Carlo last month. Monaco has two titles on this surface in 2012 and is a dangerous player. If Monaco can slip into the 3rd round, he could provide a nice challenge for Djokovic.

In the bottom half of the draw, we've got Del Potro and Tsonga and the top seeds. Tsonga has an easier path possibly to a showdown with Del Potro, but will have to show something better than what we've seen on clay from him this season to work past even a guy like Troicki. Del Potro will have a tricky 2nd rounder against Youzhny or Bellucci, but his form has been solid on clay this Spring. Even with those dangerous floaters in this portion of the draw, it would be surprising if Del Potro or Tsonga wasn't in the quarters. Given current form, I'd give the edge to Del Potro.

Federer Quarter
Federer comes in off the final in Madrid and looking honestly this year like perhaps the best player on tour. What I really like is that he didn't get caught up in the whole blue clay debate, instead he studied up and quietly ran roughshod to the title. I think he is the guy I really want to watch this week. He has not played well at Rome in the past with just one win in the past two trips to Rome. He hasn't made it past the semis since 2006. He has an interesting draw with Berlocq possibly first-up and the likes of Ferrero and Monfils maybe looming in the 3rd round.

On the bottom half of the quarter, it's the big hitters with Isner and Tipsarevic as the top seeds. Isner takes on Kohlschreiber in the 1st round which should be a highlight match. Seppi, Istomin and Wawrinka also litter what could be a highly competitive portion of the draw. I think Federer should still get to the quarters here because of the lack of match play and form of guys like Ferrero and Monfils. Don't be surprised to see Federer's friend and Swiss mate Wawrinka in the mix. A Wawrinka-Tipsarevic 2nd rounder could decide the other QF slot. Don't look too deep into Tipsarevic's run in Madrid. The odd surface played quick and helped his game, while the red clay should aid Wawrinka who has played well in Rome in the past.

Murray Quarter
This is a big tournament for Murray. He needs to prove himself healthy from his back problem and find some form going into Roland Garros. Murray played decently enough in Barcelona and Monte Carlo for his tune-ups, but was beaten by Berdych and Raonic. Getting overpowered by a Raonic on dirt has to be somewhat troublesome to Murray. He gets Nalbandian or a qualifier right off the bat in the 2nd round, so he will need to be sharp. He also has Gasquet, Melzer and Davydenko or Lorenzi to contend with in his draw. He made the semis here last year and perhaps that did amp up his confidence as he had never done well here before. A repeat of last year's performance would be large for him, I think.

In the bottom half, Ferrer and Simon are the seeds. Both have been in mildly good form on clay. The sexy first rounder is Verdasco against Dolgopolov. From a betting perspective, this will be a nightmare of course. Dolgpolov should enter in as the underdog here and might make him an attractive shot. Verdasco has to try and recover still from the emotion of beating Nadal last week and this is his first encounter with the junkball game of Dolgopolov. That's usually a recipe for a loss. Whomever advances to play Ferrer should make this portion of the draw exceptional. Simon pretty much has a first round bye. They decided to name his bye Donald Young. Andujar is up next for Simon. That could be a good one. Ferrer made the final here last year and may have the inside track to at least a semifinal spot if Murray slips up.

Nadal Quarter
I would expect Nadal to put forth a ton of effort in Rome after the Madrid mucky muck. Nadal is 31-2 all time in Rome with two titles in the last three tournaments with a finals loss last year to Djokovic. He could face Raonic in the 2nd round which would be pretty interesting. Nadal has beaten Raonic twice on hard courts, so I don't see him losing on clay. Baghdatis and Spanish countrymen Feliciano Lopez and Marcel Granollers are in this part of the draw too. Nadal should have it to be in the quarters without a ton of trouble.

In the top part of the draw, Berdych and Almagro are the seeds. Almagro and Cilic open in the best first rounder. Berdych should have adequate rest even after the final in Madrid. His draw is cake and he should be able to work into the 3rd round to face either Almagro or Cilic. Don't be shocked to see that end Berdych's run.

Outlook: I am really expecting the two biggest blue clay haters - Djokovic and Nadal - to make moves this week and would not be shocked of course to see them face off in the final. On draw alone, Federer may join them in the semifinals. Murray is the most likely to miss out. The key match in this tournament could be a Djokovic vs. Federer semifinal. Since this isn't traditionally his best tournament, Federer's performance could have a lot to say about not only the Champion for this week but what might be on tap at Roland Garros.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Federer, Ferrer, Nadal
Championship: Nadal Over Djokovic
Upset Specials: Dolgopolov over Verdasco, Volandri Over Troicki, Lorenzi Over Davydenko

Man I said it before, I need to do these as often as I can - seems to help the overall feel of things for me at least. Have all four semifinalists in line tomorrow and all four are massive favorites. Tomorrow looks like a day on the men's side where only totals and spreads could be useful. Even if you parlayed all four favorites -- the price is still pretty high to pay although they all seem solid. I do think Seppi could push Federer, but other than that all the match-ups look like they could be fairly one sided.

[`q1q1q1]

I am happy that he is hittting. because he knows his tennis but i havent seen a streak like this in a long time, you just cant have bad luck over that extended period of time.

maybe my hate gets his good streak going so I will keep it up!

EP, one or two days of winning doesnt make up for a year of shit so far

[`q1q1q1]

me vs the tennis genius day 2


pennetta +5.5 and ML
sharapova -2.5
li under 20
li -4.5
nadal -5
nadal under 20
tsonga +4.5 and ML
gasquet +5.5 and ML

ML plays for 1/4 of spread plays

[baskets]

me vs the tennis genius day 2


pennetta +5.5 and ML
sharapova -2.5
li under 20
li -4.5
nadal -5
nadal under 20
tsonga +4.5 and ML
gasquet +5.5 and ML

ML plays for 1/4 of spread plays

11 tennis plays in one day is the equivalent of slitting one's own throat. I don't really care what either one of you guys does.... but if you do 11 tennis bets a day consistently, that's not a winning formula. I don't care what anybody fukking says, PrimaDonna Tank included

[EaglesPhan36]

Fry-Day. Don't get burned.

Friday, May 18th
WTA Parlay: Li Na + Kvitova [+133]
Bordeaux Challenger: Bautista-Agut -140
WTA Rome: Venus Williams +180

Li Na is just a more complete and steadier player than Cibulkova. On her best day, Cibulkova can beat just about anyone - but on clay, she is wildly inconsistent. She has gone from finalist in Barcelona to likely being content with her week this far after crashing out in the 1st round of successive tournaments. Li Na is playing consistent and has only lost to the best - Azarenka & Ag-Radwanska on this surface in 2012. Kerber has played one good match of three here with Goerges being woeful in their meeting yesterday. Kvitova is rounding into a little better form. She beat Kerbe in Stuttgart in a tight match. On this surface, she is still the more potent player. If she keeps her serve tight, she wins. In Bordeaux, Bautista-Agut gets Matosevic who is on a great run of form on clay. Still, in the overall view of their work on clay - Bautista-Agut remains the better player with a Challenger title to his credit. Venus v. Sharapova is the sexy match-up of the day. Even though Sharapova is in perhaps the best groove of the WTA wenches, Venus has fought well and this match is well overpriced IMO for the actual chances of who may win. If Venus can improve her serve, Sharapova is leaving plenty of openings so far this week to be beaten.

[ParlayininHTown]

Fry-Day. Don't get burned.

You say this before giving us WTA picks? Come on EP

Seriously, best of luck. I don't see a Venus upset, but I damn sure won't bet on Sharapova after she labored through the last two matches.

I think Li Na cruises, but I've already backed her twice and won both times this week, so I'm not going to push my luck again on dog day. Should be a solid play. Kvitova always makes me nervous, but hopefully she shows up and cruises as well.

Win big tomorrow, EP ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ...

WTA Doubles: Errani-Vinci -150
Had not paid a ton of attention to WTA on the doubles side, but this team has been pretty dominant in 2012. They have won four titles already and made two other finals, including the Aussie Open final. This will be the 3rd time they have met the team of Kirilenko-Petrova. They won last time they met on clay last week in Madrid, while they lost on a hard surface to them early in the season in Miami. Both went the distance. This duo is four for four in entering and winning titles on clay this season, so going to side with them to earn a spot closer to another potential final.

[Demonata]

What do you think of Teymuraz Gabashvili -155* vs Nicolas Mahut ?

Mahut was a dog his last match and won will he do the same today or should I go with Gabashvili? Also I think Lukas Rosol vs Paul-Henri Mathieu should have Rosol winning? I feel safer with picking Rosol than Gabasvili.

Any input on these two? Thanks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't trust Garbagevili for shit, but Mahut also doesn't do clay much either. He's whipped a couple of decent players though. Other one seems like a toss-up.

[Demonata]

Ok thanks man.Ya I just dont trust Mahut to win these two straight matches on clay as an underdog. Gabasvili playing better on clay in my opinion.

[Pride]

li na about to pull the classic wta choke job. up 5-2 lose the set

[ParlayininHTown]

li na about to pull the classic wta choke job. up 5-2 lose the set

That's hilarious. She did the same thing yesterday and pulled out the first set in a tiebreak. Apparently she needs to wait until her opponent has 3 games under her belt before she goes for that break to essentially end the set

[Pride]

sharapova cruising to victory. she is getting over 70% of her first serves in.

[Dmoneytx]

Hey EP, I forgot to tell you about your props last night for Indiana game. I tailed both & I thought I lost both bec Wade obv sucked! And for rebounds I got mixed up & I kept looking at Hill, not West! LOL!!! Then I see West had 9 boards!!!! Sweet! Only lost a small ammount on juice, I thought I lost 200 for those. But it was all good! Thanks brotha. Good luck tonight! I'll see what u have going up, maybe I tail again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Didn't play Wade at all last night. That was two nights ago. Real glad I didn't touch that pussy yesterday.

Speaking of pussies ... nice match Kvitova. That was WTA at its finest. Tie break and then two 6-1 sets in opposite directions. Weeee!

[Demonata]

Didn't play Wade at all last night. That was two nights ago. Real glad I didn't touch that pussy yesterday.

Speaking of pussies ... nice match Kvitova. That was WTA at its finest. Tie break and then two 6-1 sets in opposite directions. Weeee!

You forgot the fact that in first set both got broken a combined 6 times on serve. WTA eats your soul.

[EaglesPhan36]

Saturday, May 19th
Parlay: Sharapova + Nadal 2-0 [-108]
If Sharapova and Kerber were meeting on something other than clay, I'd hesitate to take Sharapova perhaps ... but she's an underrated player if that is possible on clay IMO. Her 1st serve was a ton better yesterday than it had been most of the week and that could bode well for Saturday. Her 2nd serve like most of the bitches is pretty pathetic, so avoiding too many of those is key for both. Ferrer gave Nadal a match in Barcelona, but he still lost in straight sets. Nadal has not dropped a set to Ferrer on clay in nine of the last 12 meetings and in six straight on clay. Ferrer played almost the same match three times this week with a tie break set and a runaway set in winning three to get to the semis. He's been a great tie break player lately with six straight wins, the last loss coming to Nadal. Nadal has looked very focused this week and his serve has been very steady. If it remains that way tomorrow, I think he will pick past Ferrer in a tight, two setter.

[RosieTheGreat]

win

[Demonata]

Great looking parlay man.

[EaglesPhan36]

FYI for Monday, Rain forecast in Rome & Nice all day for ATP matches. WTA matches that start early enough could get in. Brussels & Strasbourg forecast rain in the afternoon, but should have windows for AM play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mon-eyday

Monday, May 21st
ATP Nice: Darcis +160
ATP Rome: Djokovic-Nadal Over 23 [-115]

[ParlayininHTown]

Mon-eyday

Monday, May 21st
ATP Nice: Darcis +160
ATP Rome: Djokovic-Nadal Over 23 [-115]

Why Darcis over Fognini? I know Fognini isn't that good, but I don't trust Darcis.

[MUHerd37]

There should be no tennis betting this week. Too damn hard. Lots of players won't even try.

[EaglesPhan36]

86 the total in Rome, I missed the start.

[EaglesPhan36]

Foureyes Gacon in Strasbourg. Devil told me it's solid.

[EaglesPhan36]

Devil also says scratch your itch on Cibulkova.

[ParlayininHTown]

Devil also says scratch your itch on Cibulkova.

Funny that she's only -140 last I checked ... so tempting yet so scary with the talent McHale has. I think I won't dance with the devil today. haha.