Shari's tennis plays

[Rainman12]

betting on the skugor match has been taken offline at pinny

[shari91]

betting on the skugor match has been taken offline at pinny

Yeah, Paco was saying that he had the bet ready to place and then his Internet cut out. When he jumped back on, the bet was gone.

It's still up here but is now -210. Absolutely unbelievable. A 70 cent drop and continuing to plummet.

Anyone who follows my thread during smaller tournaments knows how much I bet during the 1st round. I usually have so many damn plays going I can hardly keep track of them all because I want to force myself to watch a player's performance. Notice how I'm not now all of a sudden? The only advice I can give anyone this week during ANY round is to bet early if you like someone and bet smaller than normal unless you see a blatant fix in progress. Even then, you never know when it's the books manipulating the lines. And be prepared to buy your bet back if need be. It's fixxers' paradise for the next 7 days and we can only cross our fingers that we're on the right side.

At least in this instance I can say that I picked Skugor before the price plummet based on stats and form. Hopefully that's enough to get us a win for anyone who blindly tailed and jumped on when the price was + or a little below even.

[Rainman12]

good advice, i will be playing with caution this week for sure.
hopefully this doesnt turn out like the soeda debacle a few weeks ago

[shari91]

good advice, i will be playing with caution this week for sure. hopefully this doesnt turn out like the soeda debacle a few weeks ago

How bad was that?? They giveth one day and taketh away the next. The good thing is I don't think many, if any on here got stung by that fiasco.

If I lose on Skugor then so be it. Paco asked me for a play before he went to sleep and after quickly scanning every match available and the stats, this is the one I felt the best about. The good thing is that if anyone tailed, either within my thread or by lurking, they would have managed to get either a + price or just below even just like any regular bet. Now thanks to the time difference, I'm hoping the majority of people are sleeping snugly and not able to jump on this one now because although I do still feel great about the pick, visions of Soeda are dancing through my head!

It's just too much of a drop for a small tournament. Especially when there are so many other ones going on. Who's betting the kind of money required to drop the line/have it removed altogether in a tournament in bloody Umag???

[mighty maron]

Bodog has it closed and listed as in progress...Skugor was listed at -120 there. Agog to see what it will be when it reopens If it does.

[Goat Milk]

Shari you should be fine with that pick. Whenever I see things like this happen it basically means the books are surrendering But who knows anything can happen. The funny thing is the winner is probbaly already decided.

Anyway the play I just posted is my only one for today. Chela should be safe to throw into a parlay. Don't know though got to be careful betting anything higher than -200 in these suspicious tourneys.

[shari91]

Shari you should be fine with that pick. Whenever I see things like this happen it basically means the books are surrendering But who knows anything can happen. The funny thing is the winner is probbaly already decided. Anyway the play I just posted is my only one for today. Chela should be safe to throw into a parlay. Don't know though got to be careful betting anything higher than -200 in these suspicious tourneys.

I would definitely say there's a fix happening here. But I'm just blown away that I pick two guys I like today: Skugor and Malisse, and one of them is involved in this. How many matches are there? What are the chances of that?

Odds are now -222 and the handicap has been taken down. How funny.

I'll throw Chela in a parlay with someone but I'm not sure who yet. I knew this was the week of dodgy activity as it has been for a few years now but I didn't think I'd be involved in it right off the bat. Has left me unnerved a little to be honest.

[Goat Milk]

yes i agree. we are all just trying to pass time til the US Open.

What do you think about my pick though?

[shari91]

I just tried to take Skugor to win the first set and that line has now been taken down so instead I threw $100 on him to win 2-0 at +105. I have a feeling this match isn't going to go the distance and my bets will be refunded but hopefully they complete one set for those of you who get paid on that.

[nulldah]

Now the odds is down to 1.46

Seriously, if these bettors keep plumbing betfair odds until 1.2, i will hedge it and get back my unit. I'm happy that I put biggest amount I put in tennis in a while, tho.

This maybe because of Volandri injury in previous match and also the reason I put it as my main bet, but this change in odds, is like he already won the first set

[shari91]

yes i agree. we are all just trying to pass time til the US Open.

What do you think about my pick though?

I said I loved it and would throw it in a parlay! Do you even read my posts? They're a little wordy tonight because I'm having my first glass of wine in ages and will probably be flying soon so I'll still love you even if you've just been skimming them.

Just have to find someone to parlay him with. Considering either Gasquet and/or Istomin. What do you or anyone else think?

[Goat Milk]

I said I loved it and would throw it in a parlay! Do you even read my posts? They're a little wordy tonight because I'm having my first glass of wine in ages and will probably be flying soon so I'll still love you even if you've just been skimming them.

Just have to find someone to parlay him with. Considering either Gasquet and/or Istomin. What do you or anyone else think?

lol i don't think you saw the play i posted.

[kobefanatic]

i still have my manila locals but they don't offer tennis lines, i only play local basketball league, baseball, local college hoops and wnba with the local, BTW try to play the philippine basketball assocation on pinny just follow the line movements and you'll be winning, our PBA is the most fixed sport, they're really shameless in shaving points that's why it's a lot easier to make money

[shari91]

lol i don't think you saw the play i posted.

Oh, you posted one in your thread? Oops.

*hurries off to go check it out*

[Goat Milk]

Oh, you posted one in your thread? Oops.

*hurries off to go check it out*

fukk that thread. its dead

no no in your thread. Lacko.

[nulldah]

i still have my manila locals but they don't offer tennis lines, i only play local basketball league, baseball, local college hoops and wnba with the local, BTW try to play the philippine basketball assocation on pinny just follow the line movements and you'll be winning, our PBA is the most fixed sport, they're really shameless in shaving points that's why it's a lot easier to make money

Hey kobefanatic, you followed closely pba? I'm not from phillipine, but I like to bet pba since the teams easily do a run and the odds often change dramatically, I just enjoy my trading. Who do you think win the next game 4?

Sorry Shari, if this is little bit out of topic.

[shari91]

fukk that thread. its dead no no in your thread. Lacko.

Bloody hell. I missed it in here and I just wasted my time scouring through other threads trying to find out where you posted it.

Okay, well firstly you tell me how long would you expect a hammy injury needed to properly heal and provide someone with enough time in order to acclimate to the surface? Serious question as I have no idea.

[shari91]

Don't be silly nulldah - talk about any sport you like in here. We can all make money off this kind of info.

[Goat Milk]

you are talking about Gulbis here right?

[kobefanatic]

Hey kobefanatic, you followed closely pba? I'm not from phillipine, but I like to bet pba since the teams easily do a run and the odds often change dramatically, I just enjoy my trading. Who do you think win the next game 4?

Sorry Shari, if this is little bit out of topic.

since both dogs covered for game 3 try to play the favorites for game 4, dude those teams don't easily have a run it's just that the other team who is leading is point shaving, here is what i have learned from the PBA, BMEG DERBY ACE LLAMADOS are the most shameless team in point shaving, during the elimination round if they're double digit faves just take the opponent you'll make some serious money, don't worry man the 2 series will go at least 6 games they're trying to increase ticket sales

[shari91]

you are talking about Gulbis here right?

Yeah. I looked at Lacko earlier and there are only a couple of reasons why I'd put money on him in this one: He's played more hard court matches in the past year than Gulbis and his overall record in the past 12 months on the surface is better. He's winning more return points in his matches on hard court. And to fade Gulbis if his hammy could still be considered an issue.

[kobefanatic]

if you don't care about the juice just take the ML for PBA, teams are so shameless in point shaving

[Rainman12]

Really like chela tonight, parlayed him with dolgopolov. What do you guys think?

[kobefanatic]

nulldah one of the 2 series will go up 3-1

[Goat Milk]

Shari I don't think his hammy is still an issues he hasn't played a match in 2 months but I am assuming he hasn't been training either becfause from what I remember that injury was bothering him for a while.

Lacko already playing on hard has been solid. only flying in from Atlanta to LA. Gulbis should be somewhat rusty here and Lacko is already finding his hard court rhythm. I was gonna take the +3 but fuk it just rather put $50 on the ML. We'll see what happens though I am usually good fade material here at these small tourneys until we get to the majors

[shari91]

Really like chela tonight, parlayed him with dolgopolov. What do you guys think?

If Dolgo wants to win that match, I can't see why he won't. I actually think I may make that my Chela parlay as well and tail you if you don't mind.

[Rainman12]

Don't mind at all shari. Let's make some money

[shari91]

Shari I don't think his hammy is still an issues he hasn't played a match in 2 months but I am assuming he hasn't been training either becfause from what I remember that injury was bothering him for a while.

Lacko already playing on hard has been solid. only flying in from Atlanta to LA. Gulbis should be somewhat rusty here and Lacko is already finding his hard court rhythm. I was gonna take the +3 but fuk it just rather put $50 on the ML. We'll see what happens though I am usually good fade material here at these small tourneys until we get to the majors

I'm sure someone who was more mathematically inclined than myself would disagree but I really can't be bothered with +3 in most matches unless I'm 90% convinced of a 3 setter. Even then all it takes is one dud set and your bet is blown. I'd rather drop my bet and take the ML to be honest.

If you really don't think he would've been doing any significant training at this point then I'm willing to put a little on Lacko as well. As I said, I was looking at Lacko but it's hard to tell if I liked him a bit in this one because I was hoping to fade Gulbis or because I thought he had good value here on his own merits. I just saw that TB laid the chalk on Gulbis and it often makes me a bit uneasy to go against him but what the hell. I'm willing to give it a shot on the dog.

[shari91]

Sorry for the late add but just realised something about the change in elevation for Brown in less than 24 hrs (thank you HeeHawwwwwww )

Lammer +112

[kobefanatic]

tailed you on skugor got it at -110 for the game and it just became a -205 favorite, hope we cash

[Yezzir]

Sorry for the late add but just realised something about the change in elevation for Brown in less than 24 hrs (thank you HeeHawwwwwww )

Lammer +112

Yep, I tok it this morning, but that made me feel better about it.

Got Lammer at +150 this morning, now he's -125.

[Goat Milk]

On Lammer as well Shari unposted. Feel better now that your on him.

As far as Dolgo, tough one to call. He should win but Lorenzi has been solid and he can force Dolgo into errors on clay if he is on his game.

[Goat Milk]

Got Lammer at +150 this morning, now he's -125.

nice.

I'm going back to sleep for another 2 hours be back later guys

[Wilforth]

I also like Gil +200.

[Yezzir]

I also like Gil +200.

Me too.

And don't be fooled by Robredo's little run in Bastad, he would have been out to Golubev in the 2nd round, if not for that rain delay.