Murray- if the guy loses the first set he just about quits on himself. Where is the confidence he had a year ago?
I like Verdasco right away tomorrow at -120.
I like Verdasco right away tomorrow at -120.
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Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
I like Verdasco very tomorrow. Any inputs on this match Shari?Comment -
verdasco all the wya baby!Comment -
Hey guys! I ended up going to bed so I missed the rest of the Cilic match as well as the Tsonga and Murray ones. Let's just say I'm happy I went small with my bets. Although Tsonga was a push for me because of his retirement so I guess it could've been worse.
With Verdasco, I'm going to be out part of the day but I'll be trying to find out more about his toe. He has a broken toenail that became infected and that's been factored into the price for him. I'm not going to make a play on him as of yet but will update in here if/when I do.
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awesomeWith Verdasco, I'm going to be out part of the day but I'll be trying to find out more about his toe. He has a broken toenail that became infected and that's been factored into the price for him. I'm not going to make a play on him as of yet but will update in here if/when I do.
I'm done playing around with 1x plays now that the quarters are approaching. Let's nail some winners now that their won't be so many fricken upsets.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
loving verdasco bad toe or not hard to pass on a player at the price such as himselfComment -
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Just do it! Swoooosh!
I decided to go for it in the SBR book because it gives you the added bonus that the match has to go two sets for action to stand. I firmly believe if Verdasco is healthy enough to play, he will win and if he's not, he will go the Tsonga route and retire early .. hopefully if he's struggling. Hoping to hit it big and get some sportsbook cash on this sucka. GL wherever you go Monday.Comment -
great work! keep it upComment -
Small on Stosur and Groth, and also Hantuchova just to be in action
- I can see an upset happening in possibly 2 out of three and think there's some +EV here in betting all three, but like i said I'm going small at 0.5 on each. Serena/Peer should be fun to watch. 
Passing on any play but I think Peer doesn't get enough respect. Serena wins in 3 again today w/ moderate difficulty.
Also gonna ride w/ everyone on Verdasco and see what happens there. Thinking about Melzer too but haven't made a play yet which means I definitely will. Good luck everyone!Comment -
early plays:
melzer -280
djokovic 105 -7.5
djokovic -115 u 33.5Comment -
Do you guys Think verdasco will play all the way with his injury or will he retire if it isnt going well at all?Comment -
Another nice signature.
It's a tough call dan. He had injections and bandaging before his last match and still played through so you'd have to hope that during the time between matches whomever is treating him would be able to come up with something even better to deal with the pain. I'm more concerned with his double faults so far. Although Almagro has a shocking winning % against lefties, if Verdasco's serve isn't where it should be then it won't matter.
My book pushes all retirements so I'll be safe regardless of whom I bet but if yours doesn't and you're going to bet this one, you may want to lower your bet a little just to be safe.
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My plays/leans today
Stosur +275 (value play) 0.25x
Stosur +4.5 -139 to win 0.5x (bought back from 1x)
Stosur/Henin 3 sets total +175 0.50x
Verdasco -125 4x (please remember I get a push on retirement at any stage)
Hantuchova +195 .25x
Peer +5 +100 0.5x
Ginepri +650 $15 play based on Djoko's allergy struggles
Gasbag/Melzer +37.5 -117 0.25x
Last edited by shari91; 05-31-10, 09:40 AM.Comment -
Shari what do you think about Melzer (-5.5) against Gabashvili?? I know Gabashvili beat Roddick, but Andy had no prep for the tournament and was poor in the first two rounds. Melzer absolutly dominated Ferrer, who for me is number 2 only to Rafa on clay when he is on form.
They have met once before, on the clay (admittedly 4 years ago) and Melzer won 6-2 6-3. I think Melzer takes this in 3 sets, easily covering the 5.5 handicap. What do you think??
Whatever you play good luck to you
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For me, it's hard to say for sure although you'll most likely be safe. The problem is all it takes is one tie-break set and you're bet is most likely screwed unless Melzer wipes the court with Gasbag. I've been trying to find a reason to take Gasbag today because I really feel there's the potential for one or two upsets but he didn't beat Roddick in my eyes - Roddick lost that match before he walked onto the court. I think Melzer's the better player overall although Gasbag's been doing really well at saving break point chances so far here and is obviously playing some really strong tennis. But Melzer's a lefty and he hasn't done too well against them throughout his career so he'll probably struggle.Shari what do you think about Melzer (-5.5) against Gabashvili?? I know Gabashvili beat Roddick, but Andy had no prep for the tournament and was poor in the first two rounds. Melzer absolutly dominated Ferrer, who for me is number 2 only to Rafa on clay when he is on form. They have met once before, on the clay (admittedly 4 years ago) and Melzer won 6-2 6-3. I think Melzer takes this in 3 sets, easily covering the 5.5 handicap. What do you think?? Whatever you play good luck to you
I'd say go for it - not for huge but it's definitely not the worst bet out there today. Best of luck
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Another nice signature.
It's a tough call dan. He had injections and bandaging before his last match and still played through so you'd have to hope that during the time between matches whomever is treating him would be able to come up with something even better to deal with the pain. I'm more concerned with his double faults so far. Although Almagro has a shocking winning % against lefties, if Verdasco's serve isn't where it should be then it won't matter.
My book pushes all retirements so I'll be safe regardless of whom I bet but if yours doesn't and you're going to bet this one, you may want to lower your bet a little just to be safe. But I would love to see how big your bet will be
My book also pushes retirements, so thats alright.. I really do believe verdasco will win this one if he controls his injury
but will be more confident about my play if I get to see a big verdascoplay from you or goat
Last edited by danller; 05-31-10, 03:21 AM.Comment -
I love that you call him GasbagFor me, it's hard to say for sure although you'll most likely be safe. The problem is all it takes is one tie-break set and you're bet is most likely screwed unless Melzer wipes the court with Gasbag. I've been trying to find a reason to take Gasbag today because I really feel there's the potential for one or two upsets but he didn't beat Roddick in my eyes - Roddick lost that match before he walked onto the court. I think Melzer's the better player overall although Gasbag's been doing really well at saving break point chances so far here and is obviously playing some really strong tennis. But Melzer's a lefty and he hasn't done too well against them throughout his career so he'll probably struggle.
I'd say go for it - not for huge but it's definitely not the worst bet out there today. Best of luck
I see that you have gone for the over in this match (is that 36.5 games over??). If so, you must feel like it is going to go longer than 3 sets? Or a couple of tie breaks in a 3 setter?? Either way that's put me off the handicap, so might just take him straight up, even though its a lot to lay but just can't see Melzer losing.
Thanks Shari, best of luck today
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Edited: Don't let me put you off Sliden. I royally suck with totals. And in fact now that I see yours is 36.5 and mine is 37.5, I'm not going to play it. Best of luck to you today.I love that you call him Gasbag I see that you have gone for the over in this match (is that 36.5 games over??). If so, you must feel like it is going to go longer than 3 sets? Or a couple of tie breaks in a 3 setter?? Either way that's put me off the handicap, so might just take him straight up, even though its a lot to lay but just can't see Melzer losing. Thanks Shari, best of luck today
Have updated Verdasco as a 3x play.Comment -
Just in case someone misses the thread I posted:
Spanish sports papers today confirm Verdasco will be given local anesthetic before the match to ease the pain. He is quoted as saying "The only thing that is wrong is the nail. It hurts. Everything else is ok", adding "When you're winning the pain becomes more bearable."Comment -
Have re-added the Gasbag/Melzer +37.5 for .25x. I'm a woman - we're allowed to flip flop!
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Hey Shari tonight i like Djokovic -7.5 1 unit and Serena/Peer either to win in 3 set .5 units on each. I can see this one going to 3, its gotta haha.
good luck
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I think the Peer match will be close. It may actually be worth throwing $50 on both 2-1 outcomes. You'll make $150 profit if Serena wins and $400 profit if Peer wins in 3
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Ive put 3,5x on verdasco and 1x on a parlay verdasco/stosur+4,5Comment -
I'm only putting Verdasco in a guaranteed parlay. If he wins my parlay will hit for 1:3 odds
I'm on Djok over 33.5
GL with your plays Shari and crew
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Ha ha ha great call shari. I like melzer -5.5 against gaby i'm on it. Taking the over on verdasco match I'm a little concerned with this talk about his toe so thinking maybe a tight game but verdasco to win of course for you and everyone. Bol
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Gabby's schooling Melzer right now. Not a good start for my over or those on Melzer. He needs to wake up.Comment -
wow I'm so happy I took Gaby at the last minute +5 games vs. Melzer. He's rolling in this first set right now even if he loses the match i might still have a strong shot with this first set.
I think you'll get your over it'll go 4 sets for sure a couple tight ones.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment
