Wimbledon Odds and Predictions

SBR Andy · 06-27-25, 08:57 AM

Wimbledon AI predictions from ChatGPT:

Pick to win Men's Wimbledon: Carlos Alcaraz (+150)

Best longshot to win Men's Wimbledon: Taylor Fritz (+3800)

Pick to win Women's Wimbledon: Elena Rybakina (+1400)

Best longshot to win Women's Wimbledon: Ons Jabeur (+6600)

Best prop bet for Wimbledon: Over 28.5 matches to go to give sets (-120)

SBR Andy · 06-28-25, 09:22 AM

Wimbledon predictions and best bets from SBR's Mike Spector:

Men's winner: Jannik Sinner (+200 via DraftKings)

"Jannik Sinner made news by firing his trainer and physiotherapist just days before Wimbledon starts. However, he has bigger distractions to overcome, like blowing three match points in the fourth set and losing in five sets in the French Open final.

There are few players as disciplined mentally and physically as Sinner. And even though he has the tougher draw than two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz with Novak Djokovic in his half, the price difference between Alcaraz’s +120 odds and Sinner’s +200 odds is too big to ignore.

Sinner is 19-3 this season, and he should have fresh legs for a deep run having only played one grass-court tournament (Halle) as a lead-up to Wimbledon.

The Italian is likely to be a heavy favorite in all of his matches besides a potential final against Alcaraz. But I am only making this wager at DraftKings at +200 odds, as his implied probability of 36.36% based on the +175 odds at Caesars and bet365 holds less value."

Women's winner: Marketa Vondrousova (+1600 via DraftKings)

"Only one player in the women’s draw has shorter than +600 pre-tournament odds. And with that honor going to Aryna Sabalenka, who has not played in two of the last three Wimbledons and whose best result is two semifinal appearances, there is value to be had further down the leaderboard.

Marketa Vondrousova enters Wimbledon off a grass-court title in Berlin as an unseeded player. Her title run was impressive, beating Madison Keys, Ons Jabeur, and Sabalenka, all players who have made multiple quarterfinal appearances or better at Wimbledon.

Vondrousova cashed in huge for her backers when she won Wimbledon two years ago at +10000 pre-tournament odds. She is in much better position to make a title run this year, and her +1600 odds at DraftKings are a steal compared to her +1200 odds (carrying a 7.69% implied probability) at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365."

Best prop bet: Field vs. Next Gen (-125 via DraftKings)

"DraftKings offers a prop under its “Winners Specials” category that pits “The Field” (-125) over a three-player “Next Gen” category of Alcaraz, Jack Draper, and Joao Fonseca (-110).

We have already made our case for why to fade Alcaraz as the outright winner, and neither of the other two Next Gen players hold enough value. Draper is a +275 underdog to Djokovic to win his quarter, and the countryman’s draw is widely considered the toughest among the top contenders.

The only other prop I’d wager instead of this if the price was right is Alcaraz and Sinner to meet in the final. No such props have surfaced as of this writing, but if I find that wager at better than -125 odds anywhere, that's another bet I'd target with even greater conviction. After all, DraftKings gives Alcaraz and Sinner an 80% chance at capturing the title (at -400 odds) compared to the rest of the field (+275)."

Best long shot: Madison Keys (+2000 via DraftKings)

"Keys may not be considered a long shot depending on the sportsbook, as she has the same +1600 odds at Caesars and bet365 as our outright winner pick (Vondrousova). But the value in the +2000 odds at DraftKings makes Keys an automatic add to the portfolio.

Keys’ odds are lower considering she is in a difficult quarter with Vondrousova and Sabalenka. But those three women are among the top seven pre-tournament favorites to win the title, and whoever emerges from that quarter will likely vault to the overall favorite in the semifinals and beyond.

DraftKings gives an American woman a 29.41% chance to win Wimbledon based on its +240 odds, and a near 86% chance for there to be a first-time winner at -600 odds. Keys has reached the second week of Wimbledon each year since 2019, and she's a great value play to produce her best result yet."

SBR Andy · 06-28-25, 09:24 AM

Wimbledon long shots and sleeper picks from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Best men's long shots:
Taylor Fritz (+3800 via FanDuel)
Alexander Zverev (+3000 via FanDuel)
Daniil Medvedev (+3900 via FanDuel)
Holger Rune (+12000 via FanDuel)
Ben Shelton (+7000 via FanDuel)
Joao Fonseca (+13000 via FanDuel)

Best women's long shots:
Madison Keys (+1800 via FanDuel)
Jasmine Paolini (+3000 via DraftKings)
Jessica Pegula (+3500 via Caesars)
Ons Jabeur (+5000 via bet365)
Elina Svitolina (+4000 via bet365)

SBR Andy · 06-30-25, 09:36 AM

Wimbledon Round 1 predictions and best bets from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Best bet to advance: Xinyu Wang (+100 via FanDuel)

"Muchova is the world's 14th-ranked player, while Xinyu Wang is ranked 32nd. They have faced each other once before, with Muchova winning a three-set thriller on the hard courts of the US Open in 2023.

However, Wang made it to the fourth round at last year's Wimbledon and lost in the final at Berlin - one of Wimbledon's primary precursor tournaments - to Marketa Vondrousova.

Muchova, who hasn't advanced past the first round at Wimbledon in three consecutive years, didn't enjoy a confident lead-up to the tournament, winning one of two grass-court matches after exiting the French Open in the first round."

Best upset pick: Roberto Bautista Agut (-110 via DraftKings)

"Bautista Agut is in much better form entering the tournament, having made it to the quarterfinals in Mallorca and the semifinals at the Queen's Club in London, where he lost to eventual champion Alcaraz.

He has also performed relatively well at Wimbledon recently, advancing to the fourth round in two of the previous four years.

Meanwhile, Cameron Norrie stumbles into his home tournament, losing in the first round of both grass-court warm-up tournaments. He's made it past the third round at Wimbledon only once in seven tries."

Best prop bet: Ben Shelton wins the match and both players win a set (+132 via FanDuel)

"Shelton usually saves his best for the lawns of the All England Club, where he advanced to the fourth round in last year's tournament. His hard-hitting ground strokes and wicked serve are tailor-fit for the surface.

He's playing against Alex Bolt, who has appeared in three Wimbledons, suffering first-round exits twice.

A victory is almost a guarantee for the American. However, I expect Bolt to take one set as Shelton adjusts to his third visit to Wimbledon."

SBR Andy · 07-02-25, 07:06 AM

Wimbledon Round 2 predictions and best bets from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Best bet to advance: Frances Tiafoe (-172 via FanDuel)

Best upset pick: Corentin Moutet (+146 via FanDuel)

Best prop bet: Marin Cilic Over 0.5 sets (-120 via DraftKings)

Name	Odds (FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka	+260
Elena Rybakina	+550
Coco Gauff	+650
Iga Swiatek	+1200
Mirra Andreeva	+1200
Marketa Vondrousova	+1400
Madison Keys	+1700
Qinwen Zheng	+2600
Jasmine Paolini	+2900
Amanda Anisimova	+3200