U.S. Open: SBR Points Style

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-01-09, 10:00 AM

Done deal fugly. Thanks for the action! 14 points to you if Ouanna wins. 10 points to me if Ram wins. We'll go with the same rules as yesterday, 2 sets complete for the wager to stand - cool?

**fuglyboy86hi** · 09-01-09, 10:02 AM

yep

**yisman** · 09-01-09, 01:59 PM

I'll take Tipsarevic.

10 to win 10

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-01-09, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by fuglyboy86hi

eagles i'll take ouanna against ur ram

Congrats fugly. Ram just didn't play the big points well enough today.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 09-01-09, 04:30 PM

ty

**yisman** · 09-01-09, 07:23 PM

paid 10 points. I can't believe he lost all three tiebreaks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-01-09, 11:36 PM

DAY 3
1. Jeremy Chardy +155: This was the one I had marked and booked as one to take when the draws were released. Frenchie vs. Frenchie. Chardy for me is a man on the rise and someone who has his sights on the Top 20, perhaps by year's end. Monfils is working his way back into shape & for me, just cannot be taken yet at this sort of price. Monfils had issues in his return with losses to Ferrero in Montreal and the hard serving Karlovic in Cincy. Chardy for his part, will not be entering the Open on great terms as he lost to Serra at New Haven. Still, Chardy's game is suited for this surface with his hard serve. Monfils made a nice run last year at the Open, but lost to Fish easily. Without great form & fitness, I like Chardy to win what I HOPE is going to be the Open's first great match.

2. Michael Llodra +220: This price to me is ridiculous because Kiefer hasn't done a damn thing on hard surfaces since last summer when he made his one splash at Toronto. Llodra isn't in great form, but if his serve is on, he'll have a shot here. Kiefer's injury history & fitness questions make this a really nice wager to give a shot.

3. Jurgen Melzer -145: I was surprised to see Melzer holds a 3-1 head-2-head advantage and that just made this one an easier one to take for me. Safin has really mailed his "swan song tour" in with the exception of Los Angeles where he won a couple matches. The last couple of years in Flushing Meadow have not been kind to the Russian, so with Melzer playing decent tennis in his build-up to the Open and holding a solid record vs. Mr.Retirement, I'll take Melzer in what could be a roll-over if Safin doesn't come to play early.

As with yesterday, if anyone wants a SBR Points bet on any of these, the first response will be taken as an accepted wager. Two sets must be complete for action to stand. #1 would give you 10 pts for Monfils to win, 16 for Chardy to me if he wins. #2 would give me 22 for Llodra and a win, 10 to you for Kiefer and a win. #3 is 15 to you for Safin's win, 10 to me if Melzer wins.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-01-09, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by yisman

paid 10 points. I can't believe he lost all three tiebreaks.

By all accounts, that match was pretty sloppy. Serra played the breakers better, but really should have avoided at least two of them as he had break advantages, but blew them.

**yisman** · 09-01-09, 11:41 PM

dammit, I was hoping you'd take Safin so I could take Melzer.

**yisman** · 09-01-09, 11:48 PM

no way am I taking Safin.

Betting on Kiefer at that price would be foolhardy.

That leaves me Monfils. -160 isn't great, but I'll take it. 16 to win 10.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-01-09, 11:51 PM

Done deal on Monfils-Chardy, hope we actually get to see a good match! I think Melzer and Llodra are very solid wagers tomorrow. If I can hit one of the plus odds guys and Melzer gets Safin, I'll feel pretty solid at the end of the day.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 09-02-09, 08:41 AM

eagles ill take safin against melzer if that guy in the other thread doesnt reply in like 5 mins
i forgot to see ur thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 10:00 AM

If you still want it, I'll take that action on Melzer-Safin fugly. Just hit it up with a reply in here before they start at 12:30pm ET is what I see listed or thereabouts.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 09-02-09, 10:01 AM

Yes i'll take safin.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 10:03 AM

Done deal. Good luck!

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by yisman

That leaves me Monfils. -160 isn't great, but I'll take it. 16 to win 10.

If you bet with real money, -160 was a steal. Price was -225 at my book before the match started & from what has transpired, it should have been -400. Chardy sucked. Very disappointing to me. I thought this was a great opportunity for him to make a name for himself, even if he lost, thought he'd play better and at least win one stinking set. Oh well, got two more bets today. Really need Llodra & Melzer to come through.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 11:22 AM

not compared with the lines at Pinnacle and Betfair at the time. +160 was a better line.

Of course, compared to the closing, -160 was a great line.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 12:21 PM

I'm down in tennis point betting, but my two winners won in straight sets.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 09-02-09, 01:34 PM

eagles how much do i owe u?

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 01:42 PM

Just 10 points for Melzer. Man glad I took him, my other two picks just blew goat. Llodra especially to lose in straights to Kiefer who sucks.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 01:42 PM

I'm taking Marcos Daniel +330.

Anyone want to bet on Acasuso?

I'm looking for a small bet.

**ji03** · 09-02-09, 02:51 PM

Nice call on Melzer Eagles. I followed you and won some money.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 03:02 PM

Well glad you followed the one winner! I'm going to start marking the one I like best as well, that was certainly it although I would have ranked Chardy 2nd among my picks and he just flat out sucked, so as always - fade or play along at your own risk!

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 05:10 PM

Okay, here's one for Wednesday Night - any takers? Needs to be accepted by 7pm ET or NO ACTION.

Night Matches End By 10:00pm ET
Federer vs. Greul begins at 7pm. Serena vs. Czink starts after & cannot start before 8:30pm ET. Both matches must be completed in their entirety (no retirements) for wager to stand. If the last match is over by 10:00pm ET (includes 10:00 itself), you pay me 15 SBR points. If the last match is over at 10:01 or later, I pay you 10 SBR points.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 05:51 PM

I'd risk 6 to win 5, if you're up for that. This is a very random bet.

They should end quickly and I'm not sure why the post-10 PM side would be favored, anyway.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 06:06 PM

Okay. Let's just say straight up 5 for 5. Whichever side wins gets 5.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 06:07 PM

deal

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 07:06 PM

I think you got me on this one. I don't think the Fed match started right at 7pm. Punks. He's gonna need to find that steamroll gear quick.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 07:55 PM

Already paid you out yisman. Federer Fed around too much tonight. Serena would have to win in like 20 minutes maybe if Fed comes back to win in straights.

**yisman** · 09-02-09, 09:37 PM

I guess I should've bet more, but I had no information to base it on.

Just ended at 10:35 PM EDT.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-02-09, 11:04 PM

DAY 4
1. Alana Bondarenko -150: Bondarenko gets Dulko who is not very good on hard courts. Dulko outlasted Makarova in the 1st round for her first hard court win since March. It was also Dulko's 1st main draw win at the Open after three straight first round exits. She's never made it past Round 2. Bondarenko is seeking to make the third round for the third straight Open. Alona did a solid job of convering break opps, hitting 8 of 17. She's also beaten Dulko 3 of 4 meetings with the last coming at the US Open in 2007. Bondarenko has proven she's good for a few wins at the hard court majors, while Dulko has yet to do so. With that head-2-head advantage as well, the Ukrainian gets the nod.

2. Robredo -215: I'm usually not a proponent of laying big chalk, but this one calls for it in my mind. Garcia-Lopez outlasted 18 double faults against #200 Polansky and somehow won in 5 sets. He's never made in past Round 2, while Robredo seeks his 6th straight trip to the 3rd round or better at the U.S. Open. The Spaniard had little form leading in, but dispatched Donald Young easily in 4 sets. He's a model of consistency in Majors for the most part & even though GGL stepped up and KO'ed Verdasco back in Cincy, he's barely above .500 lifetime on the hard surface. Robredo beat GGL in Beijing last year on a hard surface and while Lopez may have gotten a tad bit better on the surface, Robredo has a better record in 5 setters and should show his class in this one - don't count out a good battle though.

I'm also leaning toward Suarez-Navarro against Peer, but am waiting to see where the line goes by match time. If she gets close to +200, it's a gimme play for me to make. Leonardo Mayer vs. Stepanek at +235 is also one I am considering. As per usual, if you're on the other side of these and wish to make a SBR Points wager, do so before the match begins. 1st replies will be accepted as wagers. Action stands once two sets are played.

For Bondarenko, I get 10 if she wins, you get 15 if Dulko wins.
For Robredo, I get 10 if he wins, you get 18 if Lopez wins.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 10:53 AM

Gonna wind up parlaying Robredo with someone, possibly Schnyder. Bondarenko is already down a set and a break in the 2nd. The shit streak continues. Too bad no one wanted to pillage me for SBR points.

**yisman** · 09-03-09, 11:07 AM

whoops, didn't see this until now.

Bondarenko is going to lose. Wish I had seen it and taken Dulko.

**yisman** · 09-03-09, 11:10 AM

I'm not even sure how Peer is favored over Suarez-Navarro. Should be about a pick'em.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-03-09, 11:12 AM

I'm guessing mainly due to Peer's experience at the US Open. She usually wins 2-3 matches every year. Suarez-Navarro has sucked on hard courts except the Australian. Still, as you said - no way Peer should be almost a 2:1 favorite. I might as well just play dogs straight up, at least my losses will be smaller.