yisman's ATP/WTA picks thread

[yisman]

Kohlschreiber over Haas +160, risk 7 units

[yisman]

Blake over Murray +640, risk 4 units

[Razz_Donkey]

Blake over Murray

How big a play will this be for you?

[yisman]

Posting units and odds soon. Medium-sized play. I think the line is inflated and there's value on the underdog.

[bigjonson]

yisman: Seems like you are always playing the dogs and heavy.

What is your YTD if you don't mind me asking because just going over the posts here I have to say if you really put down what you said you were you are in the negative pretty deep.

Just curious why you are always playing the dog? Value?

[cuteboy86hi]

Yisman's strategy is very good although it hasn't been going that well in grass court season.I think he was over 50 units positive after the french open.

One thing i sometimes disagree with is yisman's unit allocation.Like in Kohl v Haas, kohl was a good play record,ranking and current form wise but still Haas was the more talented player.Kohl was a break up in the third and he choked and we could not have predicted that.So the loss was okay but why such a large amount of units on such an even matchup?

[j0hnnyv]

yismans strategy is bet every dog across the board and hope for a miracle.

[Shortstop]

Good Luck Yisman!

[j0hnnyv]

Blake is playing great for once. I cant see him actually beating Murray who looks great as well and is on form.

Will be good to watch tho and at +640 its worth a shot.

[yisman]

yismans strategy is bet every dog across the board and hope for a miracle.

bigjonson, you couldn't be more wrong. I'm in the black, although as mentioned above, the grass court season is killing me.

johnny, betting the underdog would've been a profitable strategy today. I picked the wrong one, though.

Please be accurate. Just because I pick underdogs doesn't mean I blindly pick all of them. I pick the ones that I feel have value, and I toss in occasional favorites.

I was up about 90 units after the French Open.

[yisman]

June 15 ATP late

Robredo over Baghdatis +152, risk 5 units

[illmatick]

on him as well, gl kind sir

[illmatick]

having trouble finding live score on this Robredo match, anyone have a good link for the score

[cuteboy86hi]

it hasnt started yet

http://www.livescore.betradar.com/?alias=ladbrokes&language=en&w_id=20090415125535

http://www.livescore.com/tennis.dll

[illmatick]

, should be a good match

[yisman]

It could be postponed/suspended due to darkness because the matches preceding it went on too long.

[illmatick]

bummer,

[illmatick]

whats the word Yisman, looks like this match isnt going down today?

[yisman]

yeah, it's postponed. Tuesday morning now.

I still like it, though.

Since it wasn't played, it's considered as canceled for the purposes of this thread, but I'll pick it again, I think.

[homerbush]

Robredo over Baghdatis +152, risk 5 units

I agree.. but Robredo is 0-2 against Baghdatis. So here is my question when handicapping Tennis how important is head to head on a small sample size cause everything in this match points to Robredo?

[homerbush]

and none of those matches were recent

[yisman]

It's important to look at the surface and also how recent the matchups were. The longer ago they were, the more I discount them.

[homerbush]

So you like Igor Andreev tomorrow?

[yisman]

I haven't gotten the chance to look at tomorrow's slate yet.

[yisman]

Robredo over Baghdatis +156, risk 5 units

WTA

A.Bondarenko over Rybarikova -128, risk 4.5 units
Dechy over Cibulkova +260, risk .5 units

[KingRevolver]

Is there any chance that Becker beats Verdasco?

[yisman]

yes, but not enough for me to back Becker.

all plays posted above. Not much today. Wasn't able to go through all the matches.

[yisman]

add:

Zvonareva over Mauresmo +124, risk 2.5 units

[Vreston]

Hi guys,
I haven't followed this thread because I'm not that much of a tennis follower, but I've done a bit of research on this one.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Baghdatis is at number 95 and Robredo is at number 15.

In two meetings between them in the past Baghdatis won in 2005 in the Australian open 3-0 7-6,6-4,6-1

and in Paris in 2007 ATP Master Series 2-0 6-4,6-4

Since then Baghdatis has been going downhill in contrast to Robredo.
In the Roland Garros Baghdatis was eliminated by Monaco Juan 3-0 3-6,2-6,4-6

and Robredo made it to the quarter finals (I think) and was eliminated by Del Porto 3-0 3-6 4-6,2-6

Baghdatis is coming off a big injury and he's trying to come back, but up to now it doesn't look too good.

By the way Robredo is now being offered at +119 (2.19 decimal odds) at my book. It's fallen a lot!

[yisman]

It looked good for a lot of reasons, but Baghdatis won in straight sets.

Also, Rybarikova withdrew. Ugh.

[EaglesPhan36]

Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Baghdatis is at number 95 and Robredo is at number 15.

First rule when you bet tennis for me, don't get caught up with the rankings meaning anything. Robredo for example, not a great grass court player. He was rarely playing any tournament outside of Wimbledon in the past couple years. Baghdatis is always a question of health. If he's healthy. he's a threat on most surfaces. Getting a couple matches in last week at the Queen's Club probably helped him immensely.

[KingRevolver]

Is there any chance that Becker beats Verdasco?

Becker fvckin' won! I knew I should've bet it - he was like +340

Fvckin' pissed. Totally missed out on it.

Oh well

[yisman]

sorry you missed that one.

Anyway, I'm doing poorly on grass and I have way too many things to do tonight anyway, so I'm passing in Thursday. I'm supposed to do the Best Bet thread now. Ugh...

[KingRevolver]

No worries, Yisman. I've followed some of your other picks and you've been solid.

[yisman]

June 19 ATP and WTA

ATP

Schuettler over Becker +150, risk 1.5 units
Navarro over Sluiter -120.5, risk 5 units

WTA

Tanasugarn over Safina +440, risk 2 units
Schiavone over Wickmayer +192, risk 3 units