Another major, another chance to fade Serena

[QuantumLeap]

I've been fading Serena for a few months now, but only during majors. Serena played her first round match at Wimbledon true to form having a difficult time with a qualifying player winning 6-2, 6-4.

Up next for Round 2 is Christina McHale who has done well against some power house ladies. This is from her Wikipedia page:

McHale has beaten numerous top WTA tour players throughout her career, including dual Grand Slam champions Svetlana Kuznetsova, Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitová, as well as Caroline Wozniacki, former World No. 3 Nadia Petrova, former world number five Daniela Hantuchová, 2013 Wimbledon champion Marion Bartoli, former French Open finalist Sara Errani, and 2015 Wimbledon finalist Garbiñe Muguruza, among others.

Going with:

Christina McHale +6 games -109 over Bertha Butt

[yisman]

scheduled for thursday morning

[QuantumLeap]

scheduled for thursday morning

Yep. Looks like 5am Eastern.

[yisman]

+6.5 -122 and ML +1260 or so

in

[jtoler]

Fading would be on the ML, Serena doesnt care about a spread.

[pabonaparte]

But we care about a spread. We do!

[pattymayo]

over is a must play here IMO. spread scares me, serena could go 6-1, lose a tiebreak, then smoke her 6-1 in the 3rd and you're ******

[jjgold]

Serena going to go down as greatest choker ever

She could never shine Graf's shoes..NEVER

[maletaja]

i dont like it i have +6,5, Serena is angry now she could win 6-1 6-1 now wtf

[yisman]

winning tiebreaks very bad for covering spreads

better off losing them

[maletaja]

I still hope Mchale gives fight. Previous matches have been quite competetive

[yisman]

need McHale to win 3 games in the 3rd. Can she do it?

[yisman]

McHale had her chance


serving 40-15, up 2-0 in the third set, she double faulted twice and got broken

[maletaja]

lol had +7,5 +6,5 and +5,5 so close +6,5 +100 line was too good to be true finish off Serena now to make future bets m

[yisman]

serena wins by 5 games


another chance to fade her

[maletaja]

I feel like Serena secretly doesn't care about grand slams anymore. She gets her pleasure from letting these top 60 players think they have a chance of beating her by giving them a lead in the third set and then just watch them slowly crumble under the pressure. And if she goes onto win the tournament,thats just a bonus

[QuantumLeap]

over is a must play here IMO. spread scares me, serena could go 6-1, lose a tiebreak, then smoke her 6-1 in the 3rd and you're ******

Yeah, I thought about that and that might be true for a non-major. This McHale girl had what it took to be the spoiler and she would be sure to give a good effort with it being Wimbledon. She let the pressure get to her head.

That's why I like betting women's tennis. If you can figure out who will be the head case you can have a good advantage. Right now Serena's head is being messed with so she makes a good fade.

[QuantumLeap]

winning tiebreaks very bad for covering spreads

better off losing them

I agree. McHale could have fallen apart even worse than she did. I win this one by 1 game. I was afraid this would be a repeat of the French Open where Serena got an extra rest day due to the weather and smoked her opponent. Just glad it didn't turn out that way in this one.

Serena plays next against #44 Annika Beck at 5am Sunday morning. I'll have to take a look at this one a little more before I decide if I will fade The Beast again.

[QuantumLeap]

I've been meaning to fade Venus as well. I wanted to see her most recent results before doing so. She just barely won 7-5, 4-6, 10-8 this morning. I'll be looking at possibly taking the game spread on her next opponent.

[maletaja]

Good idea. They play doubles also. I dont have faith Venus late stages, It depends on markets
Markets favour Navarro shit lines for Venus. They are quite even...pass

[yisman]

I've been meaning to fade Venus as well. I wanted to see her most recent results before doing so. She just barely won 7-5, 4-6, 10-8 this morning. I'll be looking at possibly taking the game spread on her next opponent.

Venus didn't play today. That was yesterday against the Russian.

[QuantumLeap]

Good idea. They play doubles also. I dont have faith Venus late stages, It depends on markets
Markets favour Navarro shit lines for Venus. They are quite even...pass

Good point. I've been meaning to keep an eye on that as well as the Butt Sisters haven't exactly been killing it in doubles either.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm going to stay away from this Beck/Serena matchup other than to say I put some lunch money on the +1100 just for fun.

[yisman]

damn

[QuantumLeap]

Good idea. They play doubles also. I dont have faith Venus late stages, It depends on markets
Markets favour Navarro shit lines for Venus. They are quite even...pass

I'm only finding the ML on the next doubles match for the Butt Sisters. I don't have full confidence their opponents can pull off the upset so I'm staying away.

[QuantumLeap]

Venus didn't play today. That was yesterday against the Russian.

Thanks.

Venus has not played well at all this tournament. I'm taking her opponent in her next match, Carla Suarez Navarro, who looks like a man.

Suarez Navarro +112 over Venus

[yisman]

Give me Suarez Navarro's appearance over either Williams.

[yisman]

kuznetsova looked good for a cover after the first set

then she got bageled

[QuantumLeap]

kuznetsova looked good for a cover after the first set

then she got bageled

Kuznetsova hasn't looked impressive all tournament so I stayed away from fading Serena in that matchup. It's good that Serena went 6-0 in her second set because now people will think she's playing well. I prefer to think it was Kuznetsova playing poorly.

Serena plays Anastasia next and I WILL be fading her during that match. I see she's getting +700. I may decide to take the ML for a little and then mostly play the spread.

Venus pulls out her match.

[maletaja]

I liked your words "now market thinks Serena is good" I like Pavly as well
Serena isnt motivated to kill her because she is another top100 player...
Only hope that market opens rid lines

[QuantumLeap]

I liked your words "now market thinks Serena is good" I like Pavly as well
Serena isnt motivated to kill her because she is another top100 player...
Only hope that market opens rid lines

I'm glad we see things the same way.


I'm officially going with the following:

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 Sets +210 over Serena Williams

I think Ana can get at least one set and that pays twice as much as the +5.5 games that is being offered.

[gaebiskon]

Serena going to go down as greatest choker ever

She could never shine Graf's shoes..NEVER

whether you like serena or not, she will break graf's record before she retires.
you do understand graf wouldn't have 22 gs if it weren't for her crazy german fan who stabbed seles, no?

[Conqueror]

You don't have to like people to appreciate what they do. How much have some of you folks made fading Serena on the ML?

[QuantumLeap]

I'm glad we see things the same way.


I'm officially going with the following:

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 Sets +210 over Serena Williams

I think Ana can get at least one set and that pays twice as much as the +5.5 games that is being offered.

Looks like I got too greedy as Serena wins 6-4, 6-4. The +5.5 bet would have won had I taken it instead.

Oh well. On to the next Serena match.

[QuantumLeap]

Fading the Butt Sisters in their doubles match.

This started out -136 for the Williams' sisters. The odds now favor their opponents.

Makarova and Vesnina have 2 Grand Slam doubles titles and 6 runners-up so they are no slouches.

Makarova E/Vesnina E -112 over Williams S/Willams V