Tennis, Juice, and More Juice

[vkorli3]

Hey Guys,

Been looking at a lot of threads and want to start an official one of my own. My book only always MLs on tennis matches as far as I have seen, so this thread will be about finding value in the underdogs and having utmost confidence in your favorites. I will try to keep a record as best as possible and will vary my bets accordingly. I encourage any stats, facts, or advice you guys have. BOL!

[vkorli3]

6/18/15:

1. Troicki +150 vs Cilic - $75 to win $112

Last matchup, Cilic recently lost to Troicki at Stuggart. Both had similar performances in the 1st round but with Troicki having the tougher opponent. I like the value here with the +150 as I see it closer to an even spread. Books putting Cilic as heavy favorite due to current ranking and hoping for a bounce back win after recent loss.

2. Kukushkin +400 vs Monfils - $25 to win $100

Kukushkin played really well in the first match. His serve looked really strong. Monfils has a tendency to have mental lapses. I am taking this as a straight value play as I see Monfils closer to a -250 favorite. Books see Monfils as heavy public favorite hence the extra price.

yday's stats: 0-0 +$0
L0: 0-0-0 +$0

[vkorli3]

6/18/15: Recap

1. Troicki +150 vs Cilic - $75 to win $112 - Win
2. Kukushkin +400 vs Monfils - $25 to win $100 - Loss

6/18/15 stats: 1-1 +$87
L2: 1-1 +$87

[Djoking]

+150 was on Cilic not on Troicki

[matt1216]

Umm no^ troicki was definitely the dog.

[girlscoutcookies]

+150 was on Cilic not on Troicki

indica or sativa?

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah i was a bit surprised Troicki was the dog too but didn't want to touch it because of his final and rather lacklustre match against Matheui.
Probably because Cilic is ranked higher and had his measure before.
Well done anyway. Kukushin was no slouch either

[vkorli3]

6/18/15:

1. Troicki +140 vs Isner - $50 to win $70

Isner won the most recent match on clay with straight set tiebreakers. Isner has not been broken yet this tournament and has only had two breaks in the first round. He wasn't able to break Lopez even while he committed 6 double faults. Isner's last match was three straight tiebreak sets with no breaks. Troicki will be able to break Isner as he has multiple breaks throughout the first 2 rounds. Troicki is in great grass form having made it to the Stuggart final recently. The logic here is that Troicki has a better serve than either of Isner's opponents thus far. He will have trouble finding breaks again and Troicki should be able to find a break or two after tearing apart Cilic's serve.

2. K. Anderson -260 vs Garcia-Lopez - $260 to win $100

Anderson is on fire. Toughest wins in this tournament so far after beating Wawrinka and Hewitt. Garcia Lopez got by a shaky Dolgopolov who returned to his true form after beating Nadal. Lopez only had 6 aces and his 2nd serve win percentage was not incredible. Anderson should roll here with his massive serve. I thought this should have been a -375 line.

3. Monfils -240 vs Seppi- $240 to win $100

Monfils impressed me with his resilience against Kukushkin. He looks like he is in a good mental zone which is always a worry with Monfils. He lost some crucial breaks but stayed with it and closed the match in 2 sets. The most recent match between the two led to a victory by Seppi in Metz, France. I think Monfils will have a fire lit under him to take this guy down. It also helps that Seppi has had one of the easiest paths to this point in the tournament and has not looked great in this tournament or the last with an early exit to Zverev.

4. Mladenovic +270 vs Halep - $30 to win $81

Mladenovic has looked sharp as of late and has been challenged early in the tournament. This is a straight value play as I think this line should be close to +135. Mladenovic won the last match candidly and Halep hasn't looked in great form. This line is as big as it is simply because Vegas views Halep as the heavy public favorite for rank and seeding.

6/18/15 stats: 1-1 +$87
L2: 1-1 +$87

[Steelers3091]

Good luck man! I like the picks and love the write ups. Nice to see! BOL

[-FlawlessKid]

I like your picks man, best of luck!

Maybe one tiny note: I don't think Isner is getting enough credit for his win yesterday, the fact that he didn't break Lopez's serve was because Feliciano was playing some really good tennis imo; despite the df's you're a mentioning he was serving like an animal and his backhand was on a level a rarely seen from him. So no shame in not breaking in that match, as for Isner: his serve was really good, so I don't think Troicki will be breaking him as much as you say.

Anyway, Troicki win is a good bet. GL to you!

[vkorli3]

Become A Pro!Join Date: 06-01-15
Posts: 14
Betpoints: 102

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6/18/15:

Kerber -370 vs Siniakova - $370 to win $100

Having a positive day so far so not terrified of the juice. Kerber is a beast on grass after almost making it the Wimbledon finals last year. She just beat a very impressive Jankovic handedly. Siniakova has very limited experience on grass with just 2 matches previous to this tournament. I didn't get to watch the match with McHale but based off the amount of unforced errors it seems like McHale almost beat herself. I was expecting a bigger line at -500 on the public favorite.

6/18/15 stats: 1-1 +$87
L2: 1-1 +$87

[vkorli3]

Away from the laptop but putting $25 on Hantuchova for +370. I'll make the official post when I get to my computer.

[FlipsideRM]

Not sure that Troickis serve is better than Flopez's like you say but I'm on Troicki as well

[vkorli3]

6/19/15:

1. Troicki +140 vs Isner - $50 to win $70

Isner won the most recent match on clay with straight set tiebreakers. Isner has not been broken yet this tournament and has only had two breaks in the first round. He wasn't able to break Lopez even while he committed 6 double faults. Isner's last match was three straight tiebreak sets with no breaks. Troicki will be able to break Isner as he has multiple breaks throughout the first 2 rounds. Troicki is in great grass form having made it to the Stuggart final recently. The logic here is that Troicki has a better serve than either of Isner's opponents thus far. He will have trouble finding breaks again and Troicki should be able to find a break or two after tearing apart Cilic's serve.

2. K. Anderson -260 vs Garcia-Lopez - $260 to win $100

Anderson is on fire. Toughest wins in this tournament so far after beating Wawrinka and Hewitt. Garcia Lopez got by a shaky Dolgopolov who returned to his true form after beating Nadal. Lopez only had 6 aces and his 2nd serve win percentage was not incredible. Anderson should roll here with his massive serve. I thought this should have been a -375 line.

3. Monfils -240 vs Seppi- $240 to win $100

Monfils impressed me with his resilience against Kukushkin. He looks like he is in a good mental zone which is always a worry with Monfils. He lost some crucial breaks but stayed with it and closed the match in 2 sets. The most recent match between the two led to a victory by Seppi in Metz, France. I think Monfils will have a fire lit under him to take this guy down. It also helps that Seppi has had one of the easiest paths to this point in the tournament and has not looked great in this tournament or the last with an early exit to Zverev.

4. Mladenovic +270 vs Halep - $30 to win $81

Mladenovic has looked sharp as of late and has been challenged early in the tournament. This is a straight value play as I think this line should be close to +135. Mladenovic won the last match candidly and Halep hasn't looked in great form. This line is as big as it is simply because Vegas views Halep as the heavy public favorite for rank and seeding.

5. Kerber -370 vs Siniakova - $370 to win $100

Having a positive day so far so not terrified of the juice. Kerber is a beast on grass after almost making it the Wimbledon finals last year. She just beat a very impressive Jankovic handedly. Siniakova has very limited experience on grass with just 2 matches previous to this tournament. I didn't get to watch the match with McHale but based off the amount of unforced errors it seems like McHale almost beat herself. I was expecting a bigger line at -500 on the public favorite.

6. Hantuchova +370 vs Lisicki- $25 to win $92

6/18/15 stats: 1-1 +$87
L2: 1-1 +$87

[SlaytheBook]

Good luck. Pretty sure Isner broke Lopez yesterday in 3rd set down 5-6 to send it to tie break.

[FlipsideRM]

Good luck. Pretty sure Isner broke Lopez yesterday in 3rd set down 5-6 to send it to tie break.

nope no breaks the entire match by either

[vkorli3]

Good luck. Pretty sure Isner broke Lopez yesterday in 3rd set down 5-6 to send it to tie break.

[Djoking]

indica or sativa?

only beer

[vkorli3]

6/19/15:

1. Troicki +140 vs Isner - $50 to win $70 - Win

Isner won the most recent match on clay with straight set tiebreakers. Isner has not been broken yet this tournament and has only had two breaks in the first round. He wasn't able to break Lopez even while he committed 6 double faults. Isner's last match was three straight tiebreak sets with no breaks. Troicki will be able to break Isner as he has multiple breaks throughout the first 2 rounds. Troicki is in great grass form having made it to the Stuggart final recently. The logic here is that Troicki has a better serve than either of Isner's opponents thus far. He will have trouble finding breaks again and Troicki should be able to find a break or two after tearing apart Cilic's serve.

2. K. Anderson -260 vs Garcia-Lopez - $260 to win $100 - Win

Anderson is on fire. Toughest wins in this tournament so far after beating Wawrinka and Hewitt. Garcia Lopez got by a shaky Dolgopolov who returned to his true form after beating Nadal. Lopez only had 6 aces and his 2nd serve win percentage was not incredible. Anderson should roll here with his massive serve. I thought this should have been a -375 line.

3. Monfils -240 vs Seppi- $240 to win $100 - Push (due to retirement)

Monfils impressed me with his resilience against Kukushkin. He looks like he is in a good mental zone which is always a worry with Monfils. He lost some crucial breaks but stayed with it and closed the match in 2 sets. The most recent match between the two led to a victory by Seppi in Metz, France. I think Monfils will have a fire lit under him to take this guy down. It also helps that Seppi has had one of the easiest paths to this point in the tournament and has not looked great in this tournament or the last with an early exit to Zverev.

4. Mladenovic +270 vs Halep - $30 to win $81 - Win

Mladenovic has looked sharp as of late and has been challenged early in the tournament. This is a straight value play as I think this line should be close to +135. Mladenovic won the last match candidly and Halep hasn't looked in great form. This line is as big as it is simply because Vegas views Halep as the heavy public favorite for rank and seeding.

5. Kerber -370 vs Siniakova - $370 to win $100 - Win

Having a positive day so far so not terrified of the juice. Kerber is a beast on grass after almost making it the Wimbledon finals last year. She just beat a very impressive Jankovic handedly. Siniakova has very limited experience on grass with just 2 matches previous to this tournament. I didn't get to watch the match with McHale but based off the amount of unforced errors it seems like McHale almost beat herself. I was expecting a bigger line at -500 on the public favorite.

6. Hantuchova +370 vs Lisicki- $25 to win $92 - Loss

6/19/15 stats: 4-1-1 +$326
L8: 5-2-1 +$413

[strictlyogkush]

Killing it

[SlaytheBook]

Nice work today. Sorry for my mix-up re: the Isner breaks of serve.

Good luck on Saturday

[vkorli3]

6/20/15:

1. Troicki +475 vs Murray - $28 to win $133

Straight value play here as will be most of today. Murray has never lost to Troicki. Troicki has been playing at an elite level as of late. Murray showed signs of weakness multiple times against Muller who is also playing pretty solid grass tennis. I believe it should have been closer to +200 on Troicki.

2. K. Anderson -155 vs Simon - $155 to win $100

Anderson is on fire. Toughest wins in this tournament so far after beating Garcia-Lopez, Wawrinka and Hewitt. Anderson is winning 89% of his 1st serve points! Simon has had one of the easier paths to the tournament and is not known for his grass court prowess, often losing to players with big serves and big forehands in the past. This line should have been closer to a -300 Anderson but the books are favoring Simon a little more due to overall rank.

3. Karlovic +440 vs Federer - $25 to win $110

Straight value play again here. Karlovic is in great grass form. Federer has looked really strong this tournament and the fans seem to be backing him. Federer has also won 12/13 matchups against Karlovic. However, the past 2 grass matches have gone to 3 sets. Also, I am not sure about Federer's physical durability through tournaments anymore. I have seen him get more and more fatigued as tournaments go on and I believe this could help Karlovic tremendously. I saw Federer as a -300 favorite so let's roll the dice here.

4. Pliskova -160 vs Mladenovic - $80 to win $50

Mladenovic had the biggest win of her career yesterday. Winning the last two sets and the final one in a challenging tiebreak. I don't think she is able to bring an extra edge today to win this match. I expect a regression to normal playing levels for Mladenovic today. Also, Mladenovic won the only matchup between these 2 prior to Pliskova rising in the ranks. I see this as a statement win for Pliskova as she has cruised through a pretty challenging draw.6/19/15 stats: 4-1-1 +$326
L8: 5-2-1 +$413

[lucasdawg]

on kerber todayyyy

[GoBlue77]

lisucki lol

[vkorli3]

6/20/15:

1. Troicki +475 vs Murray - $28 to win $133 - Postponed due to rain/injury - weird!

Straight value play here as will be most of today. Murray has never lost to Troicki. Troicki has been playing at an elite level as of late. Murray showed signs of weakness multiple times against Muller who is also playing pretty solid grass tennis. I believe it should have been closer to +200 on Troicki.

2. K. Anderson -155 vs Simon - $155 to win $100 - Win

Anderson is on fire. Toughest wins in this tournament so far after beating Garcia-Lopez, Wawrinka and Hewitt. Anderson is winning 89% of his 1st serve points! Simon has had one of the easier paths to the tournament and is not known for his grass court prowess, often losing to players with big serves and big forehands in the past. This line should have been closer to a -300 Anderson but the books are favoring Simon a little more due to overall rank.

3. Karlovic +440 vs Federer - $25 to win $110 - Loss

Straight value play again here. Karlovic is in great grass form. Federer has looked really strong this tournament and the fans seem to be backing him. Federer has also won 12/13 matchups against Karlovic. However, the past 2 grass matches have gone to 3 sets. Also, I am not sure about Federer's physical durability through tournaments anymore. I have seen him get more and more fatigued as tournaments go on and I believe this could help Karlovic tremendously. I saw Federer as a -300 favorite so let's roll the dice here.

4. Pliskova -160 vs Mladenovic - $80 to win $50 - Win

Mladenovic had the biggest win of her career yesterday. Winning the last two sets and the final one in a challenging tiebreak. I don't think she is able to bring an extra edge today to win this match. I expect a regression to normal playing levels for Mladenovic today. Also, Mladenovic won the only matchup between these 2 prior to Pliskova rising in the ranks. I see this as a statement win for Pliskova as she has cruised through a pretty challenging draw.

6/20/15 stats: 2-1 +$125
L11: 7-3-1 +$538

[vkorli3]

6/21/15:

1. Troicki +475 vs Murray - $28 to win $133 - Postponed due to injury and then rain

Straight value play here as will be most of today. Murray has never lost to Troicki. Troicki has been playing at an elite level as of late. Murray showed signs of weakness multiple times against Muller who is also playing pretty solid grass tennis. I believe it should have been closer to +200 on Troicki.

2. Kerber -145 vs Pliskova - $145 to win $100

This is a really close matchup with both ladies playing really great tennis. Kerber is the more dominant grass court player to date with a much better record and a history of making it deep in tournaments. The real stat I am leaning on is 2nd serve points won which for Kerber is 64% over the past 3 and Pliskova is 42% over the last 3. This means when Pliskova misses her first serve, she loses more points than she wins. She has made 69% of her first serves last game while Kerber made 79%. It seems as if Pliskova has the heavier serve however Kerber might have a more effective overall service game. Pliskova won the most recent matchup at Sydney on hard court. I think Kerber takes this in 3.

3. Seppi +650 vs Federer- $25 to win $162

This is a straight value play. Seppi won the second most recent matchup at the Australian Open. In complete agreement with Federer playing great tennis and with Seppi having undoubtedly the easiest path to an ATP finals in a while. I just think the fact that Seppi might have a little bit of confidence going against Federer mixed with full energy vs aging Federer has some appeal. I'm not confident enough in Federer to lay the -900. Letting the dice roll here.

6/20/15 stats: 2-1 +$125
L11: 7-3-1 +$538

[vkorli3]

Duplicated posts by mistake.

[BennyBigNuts]

Def a ghost but too far back to remember who this guy is.
It's on the tip of my tongue.
I'm sure someone one of the tennis regulars can recall though.

[FlipsideRM]

looks like matt, notice how he hasnt posted in his thread in awhile. He also uses the same bold lettering and amateur explanations as this "guy"

[GoBlue77]

Def a ghost but too far back to remember who this guy is.
It's on the tip of my tongue.
I'm sure someone one of the tennis regulars can recall though.

cashaholic?

[BennyBigNuts]

looks like matt, notice how he hasnt posted in his thread in awhile. He also uses the same bold lettering and amateur explanations as this "guy"

LOL, funny I figured Matt would have a guess but never figured it could be him.
Possible, but Matt does more challenger and scrubbier matches. I would say it's not him so far.
This dudes only done ATP and WTP.
It's def a ghost though and irritating me I can't remember who it is.

[Steamroller]

He's definitely better than any other regular tipster here tho.

[BennyBigNuts]

He's definitely better than any other regular tipster here tho.

It's been 2 days relax
They are ghosts for a reason.
Usually tout attempts are here for a cpl weeks at the most until they run bad then disappear.

[Steamroller]

Why so butthurt when someone runs good.

[vkorli3]

6/21/15:

1. Troicki +475 vs Murray - $28 to win $133 - Postponed due to injury and then rain - Loss

Straight value play here as will be most of today. Murray has never lost to Troicki. Troicki has been playing at an elite level as of late. Murray showed signs of weakness multiple times against Muller who is also playing pretty solid grass tennis. I believe it should have been closer to +200 on Troicki.

2. Kerber -145 vs Pliskova - $145 to win $100 - Win

This is a really close matchup with both ladies playing really great tennis. Kerber is the more dominant grass court player to date with a much better record and a history of making it deep in tournaments. The real stat I am leaning on is 2nd serve points won which for Kerber is 64% over the past 3 and Pliskova is 42% over the last 3. This means when Pliskova misses her first serve, she loses more points than she wins. She has made 69% of her first serves last game while Kerber made 79%. It seems as if Pliskova has the heavier serve however Kerber might have a more effective overall service game. Pliskova won the most recent matchup at Sydney on hard court. I think Kerber takes this in 3.

3. Seppi +650 vs Federer- $25 to win $162 - Loss

This is a straight value play. Seppi won the second most recent matchup at the Australian Open. In complete agreement with Federer playing great tennis and with Seppi having undoubtedly the easiest path to an ATP finals in a while. I just think the fact that Seppi might have a little bit of confidence going against Federer mixed with full energy vs aging Federer has some appeal. I'm not confident enough in Federer to lay the -900. Letting the dice roll here.

6/21/15 stats: 1-2 +$47
L11: 8-5-1 +$585