EP36's Racquet Abuse

**SCI** · 01-29-15, 01:37 AM

I don't bet 1st rounds in challenger events anymore. I gotta at least know who wants to be/compete there and who doesn't.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 01:48 AM

Well I guess Matsui hurt himself. He was serving for the match at 5-3, got broke and didn't win a point I don't think in the next game tp send it 5-5. Fortunately at my book, that's a push.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 01:56 AM

Serena opens -245 against Sharapova

**poet** · 01-29-15, 02:10 AM

What do you think of -3.5 for Serena. Last time Sharapova beat her was 2005!?

**fitguy67** · 01-29-15, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by poet

What do you think of -3.5 for Serena. Last time Sharapova beat her was 2005!?

easy with that kind of logic...Berdy had a similar drought against Rafa till a few days ago...wouldn't want to get

on the second leg of what could become a key AO'15 retrospective bullet-point...

Masha's been a lot steadier in her matches than "TinaTurner on Day-Quil" so far this tourney
_________
neither "since 2005" nor "so far this tourney" mean shit on Saturday in an absolute sense, but I'd weigh the latter a bit--not much, but a tiny bit-- heavier than the former

**poet** · 01-29-15, 03:25 AM

Serena has just as much power but is a far better mover. As long as she keeps her errors low she should prosper.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 08:59 AM

Gonna hit some of these Challengers again today. Again if it's a totals play, I'm having to wait for my live options to open. So I'll post my actual # asap when that happens for anyone who cares.

1.29.16
Bucaramanga Challenger : Estrella Burgos-Struvay Over
Based on price, hoping for 20 or less here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 10:58 AM

Over is 20.5 @ -133

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 12:26 PM

Looking at Lorenzi-Melzer next in Bucaramanga. Think I might favor an Under but not sure the total will be high enough to like it. 20 or higher, Under . If it's much lower that that, could look at the Over.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 12:57 PM

Bucaramanga Challenger: Lorenzi-Melzer Under 20.5 @ -125

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 01:40 PM

Maui Challenger: Russell-Kozlov Ends in 3 Sets
Whatever the # - that's my bet on this one.

**poet** · 01-29-15, 02:14 PM

Looking ahead to a possible Murray/Djoker final, EP, Murray's 2nd serve is gonna be a major liability, no? Birdshit could not capitalize on those fat-balls but Djoker will eat them up. Murray would do better against a guy like Stan who is not know for his return game.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 03:08 PM

Ends in 3 Sets +120 in Maui

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 03:09 PM

And Poet, I think everyone would prefer not to play Djokovic.
☺

**poet** · 01-29-15, 03:22 PM

I have Djoker futures so I wanted to get your opinion on the possible matchup (for hedging purposes).

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 03:36 PM

Murray-Djokovic is usually about serving & who fends off BPs better. When Nole serves well, he's.about unstoppable. Murray though has his share of success on Djokovics serve too. People don't realize it, but they are somewhat similar players. It's just that ND can do everything Murray does a little better & rarely isn't aggressive whereas Murray can be too passive at times.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 05:20 PM

1-2 on Challengers. Last one sucked. Russell missing opps to break in the 2nd.

**poet** · 01-29-15, 07:08 PM

Thanks, EP. I think the analysis is spot on. Still, Djoker doesn't serve 75mph cream-puffs on 2nd serves. This has to be a major disadvantage for Murray. It puts more pressure on his 1st serve.

**poet** · 01-29-15, 07:09 PM

BTW, I don't recall, was Murray's 2nd serve always this much of a liability or did all this happen after the surgery?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 08:23 PM

2015 Profit Margin: -3.57
2015 Futures: +0.05

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 08:29 PM

Never mind, Challenger match pulled off my live options.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 08:31 PM

Also likely to play something in the AusOpen WTA Dubs Final. Leaning Mattek Sands/Safarova unless the total provides something better where I would again favor an over. That starts around 12:30am ET. Will check out the lines when it gets closer and post a play if I play anything.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 09:05 PM

Add...
Hong Kong Challenger: Kavcic-Chung Under

*Waiting for LIVE Options to open in about 45 mins to an hour. Think it might be a decent number like 21 or so based on the price and where other lines were set, but waiting to see.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 10:05 PM

Still waiting for this total to post.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Add...
Hong Kong Challenger: Kavcic-Chung Under 21.5 @ -105

*Waiting for LIVE Options to open in about 45 mins to an hour. Think it might be a decent number like 21 or so based on the price and where other lines were set, but waiting to see.

Booked.

**biggie12** · 01-29-15, 10:09 PM

What's the play in joko match tonight going to tail cleaned up in bball tonight

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 10:18 PM

For the price, Over 3.5 sets is worth a look, I think.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 10:53 PM

Stupid Kavcic. Had a couple early breaks and should have run away with the set, but El Choko.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 11:45 PM

Under hits because Kavcic got his ass rolled.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-15, 12:30 AM

Day 12: AusOpen
Parlay: Safiullin ML [ATP Juniors] & Djokovic-Wawrinka Over 3.5 Sets @ +109

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-15, 12:37 AM

WTA Doubles Final: Mattek Sands/Safarova-Chan/Zheng Over 20.5 @ -143

**biggie12** · 01-30-15, 12:52 AM

How the fuxk did u get over 3.5 sets at +109 ?

I'm on it for 2790@ -143

Edit nevemeind didn't know u had it as 2 gamer

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-15, 12:57 AM

Yes. Parlay for me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-15, 01:11 AM

Hong Kong Challenger: Ito-Devvarman Ends in 3 +140

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-15, 01:28 AM

Took the ends in 3 prop instead in Hong Kong