So who's gonna pull the upset? Cilic or Nishikori?

[brodie]

Both could put up a fight.

EVERYONE thinks fed/djok is a lock. Gun to my head I'm picking Fed/Djok but something inside me tells me one of them goes down.

Thots?

[Cappinpicks]

would take both but no way they allow King K to make finals cause withdrawal possible even though hes equal to jokofic

[MCherry281]

Cilic/Fed will prob be similar to the Monfils match. Look at the match they just played a few weeks ago 7-6 6-7 6-4. I think Fed wins but I'm sure he will be overpriced. I don't see any way Nish competes with Djoker. Nish has no serve. He barely beat Stan and Stan basically gave the match away with terrible errors and horrible play standing way behind the baseline the whole match. Good luck to Nish against a good player that's not an idiot.

[Conqueror]

Forget Nishikori. Wawrinka probably didn't want to face Djokovic, hence he pissed away the game. How would a player of his caliber continue to stay one mile away from the baseline against Nishikori's weak serve?
Djokovic in straight sets for me.
I think the Fed will have his way too. Can't wait to watch another Fed/Djoko match.

[Cappinpicks]

Forget Nishikori. Wawrinka probably didn't want to face Djokovic, hence he pissed away the game. How would a player of his caliber continue to stay one mile away from the baseline against Nishikori's weak serve?
Djokovic in straight sets for me.
I think the Fed will have his way too. Can't wait to watch another Fed/Djoko match.

weak serve? seems to do pretty damn well at painting lines for a short player

[SirtySree]

Nishikori does not have a weak serve. He has improved it drastically and despite his first serve being only at 180kph, he puts it perfectly on the line a lot of the time. As mentioned before in another thread, serve speed does not make you a good server. Players like Gulbis serve at 220kph but only get it in 50% of the time and don't get it near the line. Same goes for Wawrinka who has a horrible first serve % in his career.

Looking at stats alone, you see Nishikori getting half a dozen aces a match by serving at 180kph which is a lot at that speed showing just how accurate his serve is. What stats don't show is how many of those serves the opponent barely gets a racket to or jsut gets over the net where Nish hits an easy winner straight after. Another great example is Federer who never has many aces but is one of the best servers going around.

[Cappinpicks]

Nishikori does not have a weak serve. He has improved it drastically and despite his first serve being only at 180kph, he puts it perfectly on the line a lot of the time. As mentioned before in another thread, serve speed does not make you a good server. Players like Gulbis serve at 220kph but only get it in 50% of the time and don't get it near the line. Same goes for Wawrinka who has a horrible first serve % in his career.

Looking at stats alone, you see Nishikori getting half a dozen aces a match by serving at 180kph which is a lot at that speed showing just how accurate his serve is. What stats don't show is how many of those serves the opponent barely gets a racket to or jsut gets over the net where Nish hits an easy winner straight after. Another great example is Federer who never has many aces but is one of the best servers going around.

yup, conqueror seems like a clueless isner fan who thinks a big serve is everything lmfao how did that work out for raonic and stan ahhahaa

[SirtySree]

As for the two semis, I can see two very close matches. Cilic ever since Wimbledon has been playing at a level of a top 5 player and could push Federer but I think Federer will just squeak through with his big match experience and mental toughness. On the other hand, I think Nishikori will surprise Novak and take a set or 2 off him or possibly even win. Despite making the finals of Paris and winning Wimbledon, Novak hasn't been playing anywhere near what he was last year but to be honest, he doesn't really need to to beat 99% of the players.

[Cappinpicks]

should be 1 upset lets hope so boring to see same two in finals always

[gaebiskon]

as much as i hate cilic, he has a realistic chance to overpower federer

[matt1216]

should be 1 upset lets hope so boring to see same two in finals always

Its all about the money Man... Cilic Djokovic won't draw shit. Nishikori/federer would draw more, in the end a Djoker/Feds is where the money is at. I don't see a upset at all. Nishikoris serve will not hold up vs the best returner in the game. Cilic has a small chance vs Fed but I think Fed is destined to have a crack at #18

[Cappinpicks]

as much as I think novak is no.1 in world... he has been shaky lately and K is a top 5 player now who can surprise even injured

[Snowball]

RF has never lost to Cilic it is unreasonable to think Cilic can win 3 sets against RF
at Arthur Ashe - RF confidence is sky high after that comeback and Cilic did what ?
beat Berdych who couldn't even win his serves.. RF has a return that can nullify
Cilic's strength and the long volley advantage is with Roger.
Djokovic is not going to be challenged by Nishikori. He's running at 99 or 100%.
He took everything Murray could throw at him and only dropped one set in a tb.
How in the world is Nish going to win 3 sets against Djokovic ?
Djokovic would have to blow up on errors, is that likely ? no.

[matt1216]

Yeah, Murray probably looked like the 3rd best player in this tournament.

[Cappinpicks]

Yeah, Murray probably looked like the 3rd best player in this tournament.

lol? u mean the hunch back fairy who acts injured the whole match?

[brodie]

wow fed only -337.... im taking cilic +6 games for now. really interested to see what this line does

[Snowball]

[SirtySree]

For those giving Nish no chance, he won against Novak in 2011 when Novak went 78-7 and was unstoppable. In his 7 losses, only 2 were legit losses, Federer at Paris + that Nish match. The 5 other losses, 3 were walkovers/retirements and the last 2 losses were at the World Tour Finals after his walkover and were pointless matches.

Since then Nish has improved way more, especially that serve. Not saying Nish will win but just saying that ppl are ruling out his chances way too early.

[matt1216]

For those giving Nish no chance, he won against Novak in 2011 when Novak went 78-7 and was unstoppable. In his 7 losses, only 2 were legit losses, Federer at Paris + that Nish match. The 5 other losses, 3 were walkovers/retirements and the last 2 losses were at the World Tour Finals after his walkover and were pointless matches.

Since then Nish has improved way more, especially that serve. Not saying Nish will win but just saying that ppl are ruling out his chances way too early.

Dude, Raonic blew at 2-1 set lead and wawrinka was a clown. Djoker may lose a set, but he will be fine. Was the tournament where djoker lost to Nishi a 500 event? Slams are a totally diffrent animal. While Nishi is better now, he lacks that 1st serve to beat Djoker.

[SirtySree]

Dude, Raonic blew at 2-1 set lead and wawrinka was a clown. Djoker may lose a set, but he will be fine. Was the tournament where djoker lost to Nishi a 500 event? Slams are a totally diffrent animal. While Nishi is better now, he lacks that 1st serve to beat Djoker.

1	Kei Nishikori	Novak Djokovic v Kei Nishikori (To Win Match)	07/09/2014	None	7.00	To Run
Stake: 300.00 To Return: 2,100.00

[Snowball]

"to run" ? is that asian for "to win" ?

[Vinnie Paz]

To run indicates a pending bet matthew

[w@lt]

Interesting article that I came across:

Nobody can argue that Kei Nishikori is playing the best tennis of his life. Just two spots off his career high ranking of 9 (which he obtained less than three months ago), Nishikori has had some stellar results in 2014. But more importantly he’s put together a string of stellar performances at this US Open. After skipping most of the summer hardcourt series with a toe injury, there was some doubt if Nishikori would even play at Flushing Meadows, let alone do well. And then there was his draw. Facing a round of 16 matchup with the #5 seed Milos Roanic, followed by #3 Wawrinka, Nishikori had arguably the most challenging draw of all the second tier players in the tournament (ie everyone not named Djokovic or Federer).
Nishikori rose to both of those challenges with aplomb. First he fought off 35 aces from Raonic, coming back from two sets to one down to clinch a five set victory. This win alone was impressive, given Raonic too had finally come into his own and has been in the form of his life. What came next was even more remarkable as he outlasted Stanislas Wawrinka in five to make his first Slam semi-final. This, of course, brings him face-to-face with Novak Djokovic. The two have played only twice before, and both of those matches were well in the past. Djokovic beat a 20 year old Nishikori at the French Open on clay in 2010, only to lose to him on hard courts the following year. Of course even if Nishikori wasn’t coming off back-to-back five set matches, Djokovic would still be the firm favorite for this match on paper. His tennis resume far outstrips Nishikori’s and he is the #1 ranked player in the world. But here’s three reasons why Nishikori might pull the upset today.

1) Nishikori Possesses A Great Return
For a 6’3 elite player Djokovic’s serve is decidedly sub-par. It isn’t a bad serve, per se but neither is it a particularly good one. Nishikori possesses a skilled enough return to actually hurt Djokovic off the return in a way that, say Federer, typically does not (because Djokovic can largely serve to the Federer backhand). Nishikori will be able to start many of the points on Djokovic’s service games either ahead or on neutral terms – which is critical for him if he is to stand a chance today. Especially given the inevitable miles on his legs from the past two matches, Nishikori can’t afford to spend extended periods of this match playing on defense.
The second element that plays into this is that Djokovic gets tight on his serve sometimes, and has been known to throw in some critical double faults at critical junctures. If Nishikori can consistently bring some pressure onto Djokovic’s serve that might pay dividends and prove a turning point in the match.
2) Nishikori Can Be Patiently Offensive
While Djokovic lacks the firepower of some of the bigger hitters he is capable of respectable offense. However it is his amazing defensive ability that has netted him so much success. One thing that separates out the great players is their ability to win matches even when they aren’t playing their best. Against all but the very best, Djokovic can simply default into “grind mode” where he scrambles, makes a ton of balls and just waits for his opponent to make mistakes. Against players like Berdych, Tsonga and the like this is largely successful because those players lack the patience and point construction to attack Djokovic in a truly sustainable manner. This is one of the reasons why Wawrinka has matched up so well with Djokovic traditionally (even though he’s failed to win most of them) – Wawrinka comes at Djokovic with, what is for him, sustainable firepower.
While Nishikori obviously doesn’t have Wawrinka’s heavy hitting he is naturally a slightly more offensive player than Djokovic. Although he lacks a true killer punch Nishikori has a very balanced game and can maintain aggressive play off both wings. Being a smaller player, he’s learned how to construct points with some level of patience, and is just as happy to put Djokovic in a position to make an error as he is hitting a winner. If he can sustain that patience and find the appropriate level of aggression Nishikori can put himself in control of this match and take advantage of Djokovic’s defensive tendencies.
3) Nishikori Has A More Complete Game
It’s true. Nishikori has a very complete game. But what is of particular relevance here is the slice backhand and volleys. While I don’t expect there to be a lot of slices backhands hit in this match, the volleying angle could prove critical. Nishikori is very competent around the net, which is the one area of Djokovic’s game that is sorely lacking. Both players possess great speed and defensive skills. Both players will be forced to come forward and finish at the net to put some points away. In this regard, Nishikori has an edge on Djokovic that just might prove critical.
Will it make the difference? Only if Nishikori is able to take advantage of the first two points – good returning and patient offense.
Conclusion
This is still Djokovic’s match to win. Given the quality of Nishikori’s tennis lately if he had been fresh I would consider this to be a true toss-up purely because of the matchup. However since neither player possesses a true knockout punch, this match will be marked by long rallies, cagey play and lots of running. Given the fatigue Nishikori must surely be feeling the odds are against him. However if he does manage to play well enough and more importantly intelligently enough, he just might be able to edge Djokovic out.

[Dollars2Donuts]

The article above states it best.

For those of you saying that Djokovic is in great form, you obviously did not watch the Murray match. Yes, he beat him in four sets, but after the second set Murray was out of it. Seriously, Murray was terrible except for the odd forehand winner. In that match Djokovic served TERRIBLY, returned poorly for the most part and did not paint ANY lines with either his forehand or his backhand. He was either 4 feet inside the lines or hitting it out. If he does this versus Nishikori, the craft little Jap will get to every ball. Add to that the frustration he showed with both his game and his opponents antics (I agree with him, I hate Murray's on court BS) and IMO he is ripe for a disastrous match.

As the article states, Kei win those matches the way he will always win matches against top-tiered powerful players, in long matches where he keeps points alive for as long as possible before using his underrated offensive skill to put away points.

I am not an idiot, I still think Djokovic gets through here, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

In the other match I actually believe this is almost a coin flip, and I cannot believe that I am saying it. Cilic is in excellent form and Goran has revitalized this guys career. He looks WAY better serving, but the biggest thing is that he looks better mentally....and that is a huge deal, especially against Roger. Add to that Feddy's last match and the way he came back (I find that players and teams almost always experience a letdown after a match like that), plus how physical his last match was....and I think that Cilic is the play here at +5 games.

In the Djokovic match I will be not playing a side as I have Kei at 66 to 1 to win the tournament.

GL everyone.

[slayer14]

nishikori must win 1st set if hewants to win match i think

[Marillion]

IMO there is value on Nishi, I think I'm staying away from the other match but for me, it's either Cilic ML or nothing.

[slayer14]

novak limping abit

[slayer14]

nishikori can win this match if he maintain the length on those ground shots

[matt1216]

Not with drop shots like that..

[GoBlue77]

nishikori can win this match if he maintain the length on those ground shots

[Cappinpicks]

Nice k looks solid as expected

[sluggy1616]

Joker just waiting for the suishi man to slow down. Joker WILL win

[Cappinpicks]

Joker just waiting for the suishi man to slow down. Joker WILL win

he may win but k +600 was a must bet in such a close match

[Dollars2Donuts]

I agree with Cappin (doesn't happen often). I left it alone but only because I have Kei at +6600...I would have taken him here (ML not +games) if I wasn't already invested.

[matt1216]

I wonder if nishikori backers forgot that Nishi Is one of the worst on tour at handling hot weather