Matt's POD Picks

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 04:57 PM

28th August WTA:

- Diyas -1.5 sets 1.61 Risk 200$ to win 120$

GL

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 05:10 PM

28th August ATP:

- Gojo 1st set ML 5.00 *Live Risk 40$ to win 160$ 2-2 on serve

GL

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 06:40 PM

28th August ATP:

Gojowczyk 3rd set ML 3.50 Risk 125$ to win 312$ live 1-0 Gojo 3rd set on serve

GL

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-14, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by pattymayo

Slow down Matty you are reverting back to old degenerate Matty I can sense it

Don't do anything dumb

Too late. I submitted my resignation as his life coach. The fiend is back.

**brodie** · 08-28-14, 07:00 PM

haha matt you skipped the only set gojo is gonna win.. that's just bad luck

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by brodie

haha matt you skipped the only set gojo is gonna win.. that's just bad luck

No, I actually had 100$ to win 325$ on second set. I forgot to post it. It has been bad luck today.

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Too late. I submitted my resignation as his life coach. The fiend is back.

Yeah, I'm going to slow it down tomorrow for sure. Too many live plays today.

**FlipsideRM** · 08-28-14, 07:10 PM

Matt, how old are you by chance?

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:10 PM

28th August WTA:

- Cirstea +1.5 sets 2.05 Risk 120$ to win 130$

GL

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by FlipsideRM

Matt, how old are you by chance?

I am 29

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:11 PM

I have a solid play for challenger Bangkack tonight!

**brodie** · 08-28-14, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

No, I actually had 100$ to win 325$ on second set. I forgot to post it. It has been bad luck today.

same. good shit

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by brodie

same. good shit

Gojo hanging tough

**brodie** · 08-28-14, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Gojo hanging tough

yep playing much better than I expected. milos needs to get his shit together if he thinks he has a shot at this tourney

**matt1216** · 08-28-14, 09:23 PM

28th August Challenger:

- Thompson ML 2.40 Risk 100$ to win 140$

- Chen ML 1.69 Risk 220$ to win 157$

GL

**fitguy67** · 08-29-14, 12:19 AM

matt, why the love from the books (and you) for Chen over Vanni who straight-setted him earlier this calendar year on the same surface...

this sort of counter-intuitive line-making is very prevalent at the challenger level

if A stamps his authority over B...why should books (and bettors) expect the reverse to happen a short time later on the same surface? (barring injury or stressful personal matter)...

frustrating as hell when u follow along on an "emperor's new clothes" bet like this and it turns out "obvious squares" 1/"counter-intuitive sharps" 0....

recent examples of this at USO was all the puzzling (and ultimately completely-unjustified) outpouring of love for Nishioka over Lorenzi...and earlier today for Seppi over Kyrgios (where the dog-bonus was surprisingly small...hardly enticing if it weren't for all the "buzz" from the sharp posters which naturally hits people with the fear of being left out on someting with potential $ and bragging-rights implications)

_________________

whenever i can't figure out why they seem to have over-ruled common sense to make the wrong guy favorite...i picture a robot waving it's arms wildly shouting "warning warning warning ..lemmings lining up"

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

matt, why the love from the books (and you) for Chen over Vanni who straight-setted him earlier this calendar year on the same surface...

this sort of counter-intuitive line-making is very prevalent at the challenger level

if A stamps his authority over B...why should books (and bettors) expect the reverse to happen a short time later on the same surface? (barring injury or stressful personal matter)...

frustrating as hell when u follow along on an "emperor's new clothes" bet like this and it turns out squares 1/"sharps" 0....

recent example of this at USO was all the counter-intuitive love for Nishioka over Lorenzi...which again turned out to be unwarranted...

Yeah, very true. I liked the way Chen faught last night vs Reid. He didn't give up. Other than a nice run a few weeks back, Vanni has not been special. I'm hoping Chen can come back. Good point as usuall though.

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 01:10 AM

29th August Challenger/ATP:

- Pashanski Ml 1.91 Risk 110$ to win 100$

- Cabal/Farah Doubles ML 1.77 Risk 140$ to win 100$

GL

**fitguy67** · 08-29-14, 01:14 AM

there u go...Chen straight-setted by Vanni on the same surface as he was not long ago...

how "sharp" was it to expect the reverse this time (and even pay a premium price for that unwarranted expectation)...

books making the obviously wrong guy the favorite gets wannabe sharps thinking that the books "know something"...and makes them strangely willing to pay a premium to back a guy they would have set as the dog if they were the linesman

______________

a lot of "emperor's new clothes" dynamic in betting where
>>"The king is naked" is the unsexy "square" or "too obvious" stance that we can't brag about calling if it wins

>>"The king's new clothes are beautiful" (or "Nishioka will be a much better player tomorrow than common sense + history would suggest") is the sexy "sharp" stance that we'll be able to brag about if it wins

**SirtySree** · 08-29-14, 02:38 AM

i think the only reason y ti chen was fav was cause he was a big favourite last time. tennis players always hav bad days here and there, more so in the lower leagues so guessing the books thought ti chen just had an off day (which he did in that 2nd set of their 1st encounter).

personally i just think it's a bad matchup for ti chen.

**fitguy67** · 08-29-14, 11:28 AM

thanks SS, there once again with a splash of not-so-common sense...

____________

hey Matt...friendly reminder to tot up the numbers for the last several pages...

otherwise the numbers you put down as betting amounts (whether preceded by "$" or followed by "u") are at risk of seeming increasingly fictional (especially if they keep escalating...as if in a bid to "get back in the black so you can say Matt's back" before ur next accounting)...

when u update...separate the pre-game stuff from the insta-gut stuff...i'll bet it's the latter has done far more damange proportionately

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 11:50 AM

29th August US Open:

- Garcia-Lopez/Oswald P. Doubles ML 1.95 Risk 150$ to win 143$

GL

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

thanks SS, there once again with a splash of not-so-common sense...

____________

hey Matt...friendly reminder to tot up the numbers for the last several pages...

otherwise the numbers you put down as betting amounts (whether preceded by "$" or followed by "u") are at risk of seeming increasingly fictional (especially if they keep escalating...as if in a bid to "get back in the black so you can say Matt's back" before ur next accounting)...

when u update...separate the pre-game stuff from the insta-gut stuff...i'll bet it's the latter has done far more damange proportionately

live wagering has screwed me hard. I'm done with the live shit. Too up and down for me to make any money

**pattymayo** · 08-29-14, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

live wagering has screwed me hard. I'm done with the live shit. Too up and down for me to make any money

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by pattymayo

Lol, I'm trying.

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 12:14 PM

29th August US Open:

- Goffin ML + Fognini ML 1.87 Risk 180$ to win 150$

GL

**HatersGonnaHate** · 08-29-14, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

29th August US Open:

- Goffin ML + Fognini ML 1.87 Risk 180$ to win 150$

GL

Do you have a running record Matt? Been a while since I have been on and didn't know

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by HatersGonnaHate

Do you have a running record Matt? Been a while since I have been on and didn't know

Yeah i do, I just have to update it. I have been decent on my posted plays, it's the live plays that have hurt. Good luck today

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 12:20 PM

29th August US Open:

- Thiem/Gulbis Over 3.5 sets 1.71 Risk 195$ to win 135$

GL

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

29th August US Open:

- Goffin ML + Fognini ML 1.87 Risk 180$ to win 150$

GL

Gl with this parlay but I hate it even if I took Fogna ML.

Fogna - you know, he can always sht the bed if he hasn't taken his pills, so one should be extra careful when adding him to a parlay.
Goffin - OK, beast mode recently but Sousa is solid and decent on all surfaces. The Belgian should win but there is way too much juice IMO. I was considering Sousa to cover the spread.

ed: but if Fogna has taken his pills, the flat hitter stands no chance against his skills!

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Gl with this parlay but I hate it even if I took Fogna ML.

Fogna - you know, he can always sht the bed if he hasn't taken his pills, so one should be extra careful when adding him to a parlay.
Goffin - OK, beast mode recently but Sousa is solid and decent on all surfaces. The Belgian should win but there is way too much juice IMO. I was considering Sousa to cover the spread.

ed: but if Fogna has taken his pills, the flat hitter stands no chance against his skills!

I need this one Mar, good luck to us!

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 01:40 PM

29th August WTA:

- Cornet ML 2.35 Risk 125$ to win 168$

GL

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 01:48 PM

29th August WTA:

- Lucic-Baroni ML 3.20 Risk 100$ to win 220$ *Live 1-0 sets Lucic.

GL

**matt1216** · 08-29-14, 01:49 PM

I wanted to post the above play Fellas... Baroni has looked great, and I think there is big value here.

GL

**pattymayo** · 08-29-14, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

live wagering has screwed me hard. I'm done with the live shit. Too up and down for me to make any money

Originally posted by matt1216

29th August WTA:

- Lucic-Baroni ML 3.20 Risk 100$ to win 220$ *Live 1-0 sets Lucic.

GL