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SK's Indian Wells 2014 Picks Thread

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  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962
    #1
    SK's Indian Wells 2014 Picks Thread
    I like betting tennis, but stick mostly to the four Slams and a 500/1000 point tourney here and there. Previous tourney threads linked below. Hoping to continue the good luck in Indian Wells.

    $50 units. Plays typically 1-3u (95%+ of plays will be in this range), with an absolute max of 10u.

    1) Eugenie Bouchard to win the WTA BNP Paribas Open (+7000) x0.5





    SK's Australian Open 2014 Picks Thread
    Tags: None
    • bababooey13
      SBR MVP
      • 11-13-13
      • 1897
      #2
      gl king
        Comment
        • brodie
          SBR MVP
          • 11-25-13
          • 2212
          #3
          good luck. nice having another opinion available
            Comment
            • suicidekings
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-23-09
              • 9962
              #4
              2) Matthew Ebden ML (+290) x1
                Comment
                • Cappinpicks
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 03-11-10
                  • 14986
                  #5
                  fading hewitt usually smart, wonder if its ezz cash
                    Comment
                    • suicidekings
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-23-09
                      • 9962
                      #6
                      Originally posted by Cappinpicks
                      fading hewitt usually smart, wonder if its ezz cash
                      Not easy, but mispriced. Ebden's poor run has come against some big servers (Chardy, Karlovic, Pospisil) and Hewitt's Brisbane win is looking more and more like an aberration than a sign of a revival.
                        Comment
                        • Marillion
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-06-14
                          • 1453
                          #7
                          Hey sir, very impressive results from the Australian Open. Why do you bet on big tournaments only?
                          By the way, I don't think Bouchard has even a small chance of winning this but maybe I am wrong...
                            Comment
                            • suicidekings
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-23-09
                              • 9962
                              #8
                              Originally posted by Marillion
                              Hey sir, very impressive results from the Australian Open. Why do you bet on big tournaments only?
                              By the way, I don't think Bouchard has even a small chance of winning this but maybe I am wrong...
                              Thanks.

                              I stick to the bigger events because I'm not super familiar with the majority of players outside the top 30 or so, and in smaller tournaments, top players are less likely to be as focused as in the more valuable tourneys. Sometimes they're just getting their work in, but it's tough to go against them consistently either when the talent level is so one-sided. There might be the occasional spot play in a 250 tourney where someone's a returning champ or has been on a bad run and looking to mend their confidence in a weak field, but it's just so much tougher to predict. However, almost everyone brings their A game for Slams/1000/500 events.

                              And I'd be surprised if the Bouchard ticket cashes, but in general, I think she wins a notable tournament this season at some point. Her game is still developing, but in my mind she's a future top 5 womens player and even if she's not quite at that level yet, she's in a great position to keep climbing this year. Her route will likely be Peng/Errani/Halep/Azarenka/Radwanska/Li and I think she should make it at least to Azarenka. VA is a complete head-case and AR can be overpowered quite easily if her accuracy is not on or she's tired. It's a tough line, for sure, but who can say what will happen late in the tourney. Hot weather, nagging injuries, lack of focus, etc has paved the way for lesser players to go deep into major tourneys many times in the past. $25 @ 70-1 is not a major investment in the grand scheme of things, given her projected upside.
                                Comment
                                • suicidekings
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-23-09
                                  • 9962
                                  #9
                                  3) Watson/Radwanska Under 20.5 games (-125) x1
                                  4) Bouchard -1.5 sets (+124) x1
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962
                                      #10
                                      5) Mladonevic ML (+311) x0.5
                                        Comment
                                        • charley365
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 01-16-10
                                          • 223
                                          #11
                                          Good luck
                                            Comment
                                            • suicidekings
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 03-23-09
                                              • 9962
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                              2) Matthew Ebden ML (+290) x1
                                              3) Watson/Radwanska Under 20.5 games (-125) x1
                                              4) Bouchard -1.5 sets (+124) x1
                                              5) Mladonevic ML (+311) x0.5

                                              Overall: 2-2 (+0.74u)
                                                Comment
                                                • suicidekings
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                  • 9962
                                                  #13
                                                  6) Murray -6.5 games (+205) x1
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suicidekings
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                      • 9962
                                                      #14
                                                      7) Julia Goerges ML (+512) x0.5
                                                        Comment
                                                        • suicidekings
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                          • 9962
                                                          #15
                                                          8) Tomljanovic ML (+229) x1
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suicidekings
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                              • 9962
                                                              #16
                                                              9) Berdych / Bautista-Agut Over 19.5 games (-124) x1
                                                              10) Vasek Pospisil ML (-123) x1
                                                              11) Eugenie Bouchard ML (-116) x1
                                                                Comment
                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                  • 9962
                                                                  #17
                                                                  12) Halep -1.5 sets (+104) x1
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                      • 9962
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                      6) Murray -6.5 games (+205) x1
                                                                      7) Julia Goerges ML (+512) x0.5
                                                                      8) Tomljanovic ML (+229) x1
                                                                      9) Berdych / Bautista-Agut Over 19.5 games (-124) x1
                                                                      10) Vasek Pospisil ML (-123) x1
                                                                      12) Halep -1.5 sets (+104) x1
                                                                      What an embarassment from Pospisil...

                                                                      1-5 (-3.73u)
                                                                      Overall: 3-7 (-2.99u)

                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                      PENDING: 11) Eugenie Bouchard ML (-116) x1
                                                                      Adding: Bouchard ML (-118) x2
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • suicidekings
                                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                                          • 9962
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                          11) Eugenie Bouchard [ML (-116) x1 + ML (-118) x2]

                                                                          1-0 (+3u)
                                                                          Overall: 4-7 (+0.01u)
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • suicidekings
                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                                              • 9962
                                                                              #20
                                                                              13) Parlay: [Wawrinka ML + Nadal ML] (-382) x2

                                                                              Not really my style of bet, but worthwhile, I think.
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                                  • 9962
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                  13) Parlay: [Wawrinka ML + Nadal ML] (-382) x2

                                                                                  Not really my style of bet, but worthwhile, I think.
                                                                                  Brutal loss.

                                                                                  0-1 (-7.64u)
                                                                                  Overall: 4-8 (-7.63u)
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                                      • 9962
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      14) LIVE (1-0 Stephens) Ivanovic ML (+210) x1
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • suicidekings
                                                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                                                          • 9962
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          15) Haas +4 (-128) x1.5
                                                                                          16) Haas ML (+181) x1
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • suicidekings
                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                                                              • 9962
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                              14) LIVE (1-0 Stephens) Ivanovic ML (+210) x1
                                                                                              15) Haas +4 (-128) x1.5
                                                                                              16) Haas ML (+181) x1
                                                                                              2-1 (+2.31u)
                                                                                              Overall: 6-9 (-5.32u)
                                                                                              1 Future pending

                                                                                              I've never been a fan of Nishikori. He's one of those guys that lives off opponent's UFEs, keeping the ball in play instead of playing a more aggressive style. An in-form Haas (as he appears to be right now) is too good for that strategy to work.
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                                                  • 9962
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  17) Bouchard ML (+171) x2
                                                                                                  18) Dimitrov ML (-120) x1
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                                                      • 9962
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                                      17) Bouchard ML (+171) x2

                                                                                                      0-1 (-2u)
                                                                                                      Overall: 6-10 (-7.32u)

                                                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                                      18) Dimitrov ML (-120) x1
                                                                                                      Adding: Dimitrov ML (+104) x2
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • suicidekings
                                                                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                                                                          • 9962
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          19) Giorgi +3 (-120) x1
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • suicidekings
                                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                                                                              • 9962
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              20) LIVE (1st set, 5-4 Cornet): Radwanska ML (-108) x1
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                  • 9962
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  I clearly don't have a good grasp on this tourney at all, even with a couple of the losses being by razor thin margins... It's been quite unconventional thus far, with several big upsets. But I've got to play it out.

                                                                                                                  21) Cibulkova ML (-113) x2
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • JD AMBER
                                                                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                                                                      • 10-26-13
                                                                                                                      • 65
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Hang in there SK. I've had a solid run since the latter half of the Aussie Open to right before Indian Wells, but I too have hit the skids here. Closing on a nice streak will do wonders for the wallet and, more importantly, the gambling psyche, so stick with it. Looking forward to your plays the rest of the way.
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • suicidekings
                                                                                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                          • 9962
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                                                          18)Dimitrov ML (-120) x1 + Dimitrov ML (+104) x2
                                                                                                                          19) Giorgi +3 (-120) x1
                                                                                                                          20) LIVE (1st set, 5-4 Cornet): Radwanska ML (-108) x1
                                                                                                                          21) Cibulkova ML (-113) x2

                                                                                                                          2-2 (-1.4u)
                                                                                                                          Overall: 8-12 (-8.72u)
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • suicidekings
                                                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                              • 9962
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              22) LIVE (1-0 Anderson, 4-3 Wawrinka 2nd set): Wawrinka (-105) x3
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                                  • 9962
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by JD AMBER
                                                                                                                                  Hang in there SK. I've had a solid run since the latter half of the Aussie Open to right before Indian Wells, but I too have hit the skids here. Closing on a nice streak will do wonders for the wallet and, more importantly, the gambling psyche, so stick with it. Looking forward to your plays the rest of the way.
                                                                                                                                  Thanks JD. Just a mental step back to regroup for me. Too little research to start off the week, which is a killer when not keeping track of players on a regular basis. We'll call this half-time and try to finish strong.
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                                      • 9962
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Hopefully starting with Stan.

                                                                                                                                      Later on, I think Fed wins but he's overpriced considering Haas' current form.

                                                                                                                                      And Cilic is playing extremely well while Djokovic has looked very beatable so far. Cilic +453 and/or Over 21.5 seem like excellent plays...
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • suicidekings
                                                                                                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                                                                                                          • 9962
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                                                                                          22) LIVE (1-0 Anderson, 4-3 Wawrinka 2nd set): Wawrinka (-105) x3
                                                                                                                                          Ridiculous tournament...

                                                                                                                                          0-1 (-3.15u)
                                                                                                                                          Overall: 8-13 (-11.87u)
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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