Kenz's Tennis

[kenz]

Agut is now @1.55-@1.60

[zec]

I know, I got him at 1.80 just before it went sliding

[Marillion]

Man that's unreal. I saw the line and had to do some job then I come back and it's 1.57. At least I placed a bet on Isner and line hasn't changed.

Congrats on spotting it on time, hope he takes this, I will have to make up my mind quickly if I want to take him at 1.57...

ed: OK, it isn't unreal, it's just that I am moaning.

ed 2: No, I definitely don't like him at 1.57, lol.

[zec]

Kenz, the lines on Stan and Kev are low with my book. Would you feel comfortable adding Rafa or Li?

[kenz]

I will never bet on WTA again. I dont trust anyone on WTA

I dont want to recommend you a game as they are all really low and I dont want to feel any responsibility for a big loss which I wont bet. I would not add any games to parlay, work with the odd that is available for Stan * Big Kev

[Rainman12]

I've also got a parlay running with Stan and Big Kev along with rafa and dmitrov (who won).
Rafa is the only one im slightly worried about. Dolgo is playing well but he has never won a set off Rafa in 5 attempts.
Rafa also beat him in the final of Rio a couple weeks back. Why am i worried?

[tipsadontlikehim]

I will never bet on WTA again. I dont trust anyone on WTA

WTA players (figuring in top 100) not to be trusted:



Na Li
Sharapova
Kerber
Jankovic
Kvitova
Cibulkova
Wozniacki
Ivanovic
Vinci
Lisicki
Suarez Navarro
Stosur
Stephens
Bouchard
Flipkens
Pennetta
Pavlyuchenkova
Cornet
Makarova
Kirilenko
Kanepi
Cirstea
Safarova
Zakopalova
Kuznetsova
Williams
Muguruza
Hampton
Hantuchova
Vesnina
Rybarikova
Petkovic
Keys
Meusburger
Peng
Jovanovski
Zhang
Svitolina
Schiavone
Riske
Pironkova
Nara
Beck
Knapp
Voegele
Lepchenko
Mattek-Sands
U.Radwanska
Robson
McHale
Wickmayer
Puig
Zheng
Cadantu
Voskoboeva
Hercog
Erakovic
Niculescu
Shvedova
Zahlavova
Davis
Pliskova
Tomljanovic
King
Dominguez Lino
Barthel
Torro-Flor
Schmiedlova
Scheepers
Cepelova
Ormaechea
Garcia
Dellacqua
Giorgi
Pfizenmaier
Larsson
Peer
Razzano
Mayr-Achleitner
Lucic-Baroni
Goerges
Morita
Glushko
Soler-Espinosa
Cetkovska
Mladenovic
Date-Krumm
Van Uytvanck
Govortsova
Medina Garrigues
Piter
Fichman
Martic

[zec]

Why do you have only one Williams on the list? You trust one of them?

[kenz]

WTA players (figuring in top 100) not to be trusted:



Na Li
Sharapova
Kerber
Jankovic
Kvitova
Cibulkova
Wozniacki
Ivanovic
Vinci
Lisicki
Suarez Navarro
Stosur
Stephens
Bouchard
Flipkens
Pennetta
Pavlyuchenkova
Cornet
Makarova
Kirilenko
Kanepi
Cirstea
Safarova
Zakopalova
Kuznetsova
Williams
Muguruza
Hampton
Hantuchova
Vesnina
Rybarikova
Petkovic
Keys
Meusburger
Peng
Jovanovski
Zhang
Svitolina
Schiavone
Riske
Pironkova
Nara
Beck
Knapp
Voegele
Lepchenko
Mattek-Sands
U.Radwanska
Robson
McHale
Wickmayer
Puig
Zheng
Cadantu
Voskoboeva
Hercog
Erakovic
Niculescu
Shvedova
Zahlavova
Davis
Pliskova
Tomljanovic
King
Dominguez Lino
Barthel
Torro-Flor
Schmiedlova
Scheepers
Cepelova
Ormaechea
Garcia
Dellacqua
Giorgi
Pfizenmaier
Larsson
Peer
Razzano
Mayr-Achleitner
Lucic-Baroni
Goerges
Morita
Glushko
Soler-Espinosa
Cetkovska
Mladenovic
Date-Krumm
Van Uytvanck
Govortsova
Medina Garrigues
Piter
Fichman
Martic

I dont trust the ones not on the list too, like Serena and Azarenka

[kenz]

I've also got a parlay running with Stan and Big Kev along with rafa and dmitrov (who won).
Rafa is the only one im slightly worried about. Dolgo is playing well but he has never won a set off Rafa in 5 attempts.
Rafa also beat him in the final of Rio a couple weeks back. Why am i worried?

It may be mental, but I have to admit I would be worried too. This matchup somehow makes you insecure

Hope you cash with no sweat

[Rainman12]

It may be mental, but I have to admit I would be worried too. This matchup somehow makes you insecure

Hope you cash with no sweat

Cheers kenz.
Interested to get your thoughts on Lopez v Kukushkin? Lopez looks like a good bet to me

[kenz]

Cheers kenz.
Interested to get your thoughts on Lopez v Kukushkin? Lopez looks like a good bet to me

I dont have an edge as I did not watch them recently, probably would not bet but my lean would be Feliciano Lopez. I dont like his incomplete return technique slicing every ball but he has a good serve and leads H2H 2-0

[kenz]

$1500 on Milos Raonic ML @1.32 @Tempobet

[kenz]

I came to the final conclusion that Raonic wont lose today. I feel better taking him single and seperating him from Kevin and Stan's parlay. But if you havent parlayed them yet, you may parlay 3, but for me ideal is seperating them

[charley365]

well now i know my parlay is safe
cheers for confirming that kenz

[gurgoles]

hey kenz, first of all i wanna say im a big fan of your plays
Wonder how you feel about monfils vs fognini? seems like you passing it so wonder why? I think monfils have a huge edge cuz the court fitting him well and fognini have struggled hard against baseline players like dolgopolov and cuevas

[kenz]

well now i know my parley is safe
cheers for confirming that kenz

Big Kev and Stan is safe bro

[charley365]

Can you see any chances of upsets or closer games than odds suggest tonight kenz?
I like raonic tonight also

[Hardcoar]

I came to the final conclusion that Raonic wont lose today. I feel better taking him single and seperating him from Kevin and Stan's parlay. But if you havent parlayed them yet, you may parlay 3, but for me ideal is seperating them

Do you think he'd win 3/4 times in this match?

IDK...

[kenz]

hey kenz, first of all i wanna say im a big fan of your plays
Wonder how you feel about monfils vs fognini? seems like you passing it so wonder why? I think monfils have a huge edge cuz the court fitting him well and fognini have struggled hard against baseline players like dolgopolov and cuevas

Thanks man.

I am passing it. These 2 have very high tension games in the past, as much tension a tennis game could have. Monfils were perfect against Nadal in very fast Doha but disappointing in Australian Open when the court got slower. This is a slowcourt, and Fognini sometimes play great on hardcourts,

If Monfils wont serve well, he will have trouble on holding his serves as Fognini is talented in groundstrokes. On the other hand Fognini should have a hard time on holding too. This will be an intersting game and I am somewhat not sold on Monfils here, although he may win

[kenz]

Do you think he'd win 3/4 times in this match?

IDK...

Raonic is underrated in groundstrokes IMO. Well, he will never rally good enough against very best returners but Falla is another story. This is US Soil, Raonic plays better around here and he has a very good first serve. He is at least 2 level above Janowicz on outdoor hard courts, at least 2 is not an overstatement. Janowicz lost from 5-2 in the 3rd (I had Falla +5 games by the way) but there is no way Raonic can lose from there

[Hardcoar]

Raonic is underrated in groundstrokes IMO. Well, he will never rally good enough against very best returners but Falla is another story. This is US Soil, Raonic plays better around here and he has a very good first serve. He is at least 2 level above Janowicz on outdoor hard courts, at least 2 is not an overstatement. Janowicz lost from 5-2 in the 3rd (I had Falla +5 games by the way) but there is no way Raonic can lose from there

So is that a "yes" then?

[poet]

Big Kev and Stan is safe bro

Kenz, the only things that are safe are death and taxes. I know you are on a heater right now (and I've tailed you a couple of times) but I was wondering how long you've been wagering on tennis? I just don't think laying all this chalk is a sound strategy in the long run. All you need are a couple of big upsets and half your profit is gone. Ask Matt if you don't believe me. But maybe you are the exception that proves the rule. Anyway, please don't take this the wrong way as I do believe that you are a keen observer of the sport.

[freshguy222]

Kenz, the only things that are safe are death and taxes. I know you are on a heater right now (and I've tailed you a couple of times) but I was wondering how long you've been wagering on tennis? I just don't think laying all this chalk is a sound strategy in the long run. All you need are a couple of big upsets and half your profit is gone. Ask Matt if you don't believe me. But maybe you are the exception that proves the rule. Anyway, please don't take this the wrong way as I do believe that you are a keen observer of the sport.

I know what you mean, but sometimes the mismatches are so huge that some ML's are very certain. if you have seen Isner serve against Davydenko, you don't know how he could ever get broken, especially in the US. Even Nadal had no shot in Cinci to break him.

[zec]

Well there is a tiebreak and he lost the serve to start TB. karlovic and Isner have lost matches without losing a serve.

[kenz]

Kenz, the only things that are safe are death and taxes. I know you are on a heater right now (and I've tailed you a couple of times) but I was wondering how long you've been wagering on tennis? I just don't think laying all this chalk is a sound strategy in the long run. All you need are a couple of big upsets and half your profit is gone. Ask Matt if you don't believe me. But maybe you are the exception that proves the rule. Anyway, please don't take this the wrong way as I do believe that you are a keen observer of the sport.

No problem at all poet, I understand what you mean

In betting you may feel like a king one day, and the next day you are broke and feel depressed as hell. I made enough wagers to know this.

I like talking confident these days, and I feel I have a good grip on knowing the outcome of a matchup.

If you pay close attention I dont pay chalk on every game. I pick a few games that I am confident, I skip WTA altogether, I skip any game I am not sure.

I know the rule of this game and I know I am using some juice nowadays but I tried flat stake and asian handicap @1.90 odds too but simnce switching this technique where I leave myself free in mind, placed wagers from 100 to 1500 on how I feel I made very very good gains.

You are seeing +$8K in this thread but I made +$5.5K the month before so last 6 or 7 weeks I made +$13.5K. So I am happy with this new approach I use.

The key is to be very precious on what to pull trigger and what to avoid. You need to be as precious as a bomb deactivator specialist in betting

Even if I lose, which I never intend to, all my profit I will still dont feel like a loser. I am grateful I have the privilege of enjoying betting

[kenz]

So is that a "yes" then?

Yes

[fitguy67]

WTA players (figuring in top 100) not to be trusted:



Na Li
.
.
PavlyuKUNTova
.
.
Martic

win or lose today, the one i bold-faced is now right up there with the ones I love to hate most: Suarez-Novarro, Errani, Vinci, Kanepi, pizza-face Barthel...

and the beat goes on...and on...

if u want to see broads perform reliably, visit pornhub.com, not anything WTA-related
___________

the Pavlyu/Wozniak match is absolutely dreadful...almost every point decided (i can't use the word "won") on a DF or UFE...only person performing admirably is the poor announcer trying his hardest to put "lipstick on the pig"

Kenz is right...WTA is NOT sport (and it's not even entertainment like WWE...unless your standards for being entertained are pathetically low)...

[kenz]

Thanks man.

I am passing it. These 2 have very high tension games in the past, as much tension a tennis game could have. Monfils were perfect against Nadal in very fast Doha but disappointing in Australian Open when the court got slower. This is a slowcourt, and Fognini sometimes play great on hardcourts,

If Monfils wont serve well, he will have trouble on holding his serves as Fognini is talented in groundstrokes. On the other hand Fognini should have a hard time on holding too. This will be an intersting game and I am somewhat not sold on Monfils here, although he may win

Fognini on a slow hard court is no slouch for Monfils

[kenz]

I already posted the one I see at first glance

$1500 on Kevin Anderson ML * Wawrinka ML @1.444, which is very solid

I have also $1500 Dİmitrov ML @1.22 pending from yesterday

3 bets can be parlayed, it makes @1.68 @Marathonbet, you can go very heavy on this, as much as $1500

Other picks may be posted after 9-10 hours from now

Congratulations on very heavy backers on Dİmitrov * Kevin Anderson * Wawrinka

[kenz]

$1500 Kevin Anderson ML @1.222 * Stanislas Wawrinka ML @1.181 = @1.444 @Marathonbet

+$666

[kenz]

$1500 on Milos Raonic ML @1.32 @Tempobet

+$480

[JC1186]

I get the feeling you don't know just how good you are Kenz.

Just such a fantastically solid run.

*Edit. And your approach is just absolutely spot on imo. Few people have the mental prowess required. With a huge emphasis on "few".

You certainly do my friend.

[kenz]

10/03/2014 Total: +$666 +$480 = $+1146

[kenz]

After 14th consecutive green day of 14 days of recording,

2 bets pending

Began recording: 25/02/2014
Total Won: $10,788.20
Total Lost: $1,650
Total Profit: +$9,138.20

Total Wager: $22,700
Return of Investment: +40.26%