Matt's Tennis Plays & Record keeping...

[matt1216]

hey what do you think of na li, cibulkova, and marin cilic parlay?

and luckily i hit mine today! all in straight sets - but you should fade radwanska sunday, looked absolutely terrible

It should hit be careful will cibulkova. Sometimes she plays well, other times she dosnt care. I think she's motivated tho

[matt1216]

all my plays for tomorrow r posted now.

[poet]

Poet, what Davis does, Azarenka does better think about it. Davis has a very weak serve but returns balls very well. What does Azarenka do?? The same exact shit but just a little better. Azarenka was rusty and injured. I can't predict that.

I meant in game, buddy. Sorry about that. Later realized that Bovada had take it off the board but I was on betonline where they were giving odds throughout the match. Davis was at -110 during that last tiebreak to win the match (with a max bet of 2,500 allowed). The way I saw it was that either she wins or Azarenka retires on that bad leg in the 3rd but didn't have the guts to go big as I didn't see any of you guys talking about it on the forum. I just gotta learn to trust my instincts.

[matt1216]

I meant in game, buddy. Sorry about that. Later realized that Bovada had take it off the board but I was on betonline where they were giving odds throughout the match. Davis was at -110 during that last tiebreak to win the match (with a max bet of 2,500 allowed). The way I saw it was that either she wins or Azarenka retires on that bad leg in the 3rd but didn't have the guts to go big as I didn't see any of you guys talking about it on the forum. I just gotta learn to trust my instincts.

Seriously, I saw Davis and said she should get schooled. I didn't think either

[Hardcoar]

wtf fck. Mannarino is one big sack of monkey piss. What a joke.

Good one... I'm stealing that! Also, this one's on the French:

http://www.southparkstudios.fi/clips/225459/le-light-saber-terrible

[matt1216]

Play #69

Janowicz + Anderson 1.74 x 8 units

Play #70

Pliskova ML 2.54 x 3 units

Play #71

Strycova ML 2.15 x 3 units

Play #72

Andujar ML 1.69 x 4 units

Play #73

Querry 1st set ML 1.77 x 3 units

1 down, Pliskova wins. Hopefully the rest come thru

[matt1216]

Play #74

Roger Vasseline ML 2.85 x 3 units

[fitguy67]

you're right matt...the Canadian serving bot does look like Charlie Brown...

apart from the huge serves Raonic is playing like crap...and ERV very well...

but when u get to serve "from a tree" u don't have to work nearly as hard to hold your serve...i'm actually pulling for the "land based" human tennis player here, even tho he's handicapped with that being-French thingy we're always bitching about

[matt1216]

Play #75

Ito ML 1.57 x 5 units

[HatersGonnaHate]

Ito what a joke. Couldn't hit a 1st serve to save his life the end of that 3rd set

[Cappinpicks]

Ito what a joke. Couldn't hit a 1st serve to save his life the end of that 3rd set

you're a joke

[matt1216]

Play #76

Pospisil ML 1.80 x 3 units

Play #77

Thiem ML 2.70 x 2 units

[matt1216]

I will update my record tomorrow. I still can't believe both Janowicz and Ito blow it like they did. Man, just brutal

[pokerwhiz90]

im getting a little hot, thanks to your advice, tomorrow i think halep, berdych, cilic and kohls wins - do you like that parlay?

[HatersGonnaHate]

I will update my record tomorrow. I still can't believe both Janowicz and Ito blow it like they did. Man, just brutal

Yeah Ito looked excellent first set then he just got worse and worse serving as the game went on. He definitely beat himself

[tipsadontlikehim]

i don't understand why a good tipser like you backed Janowicz at these odds. Too many XXXX Gold maybe?

[Hardcoar]

I think closing odds of @ 1.45 were fair at the very least. Odds before that were whoreshit though, I will agree.

[matt1216]

i don't understand why a good tipser like you backed Janowicz at these odds. Too many XXXX Gold maybe?

falla was still injured and played ok vs delbonis. Fck Jano sucks

[Bumdeal]

Cornet!

[HatersGonnaHate]

Is pospisil still hurt Matt? He doesn't even look like he is putting up any fight

[illadelphia215]

im getting a little hot, thanks to your advice, tomorrow i think halep, berdych, cilic and kohls wins - do you like that parlay?

I need Berdych and Djokovic to win to finish out a 12 team college ball/tennis parlay with 10/12 hitting yesterday, and it looks like Bird poo may screw me here. Wins the 1st set and lays an egg in 2nd set, 3rd set about to start now...

[Semper Fidelis]

Anything for today Matt? Seems like the better plays aren't until tomorrow, though a few today seem to offer some value.

[matt1216]

yeah, taking it easy today guys. Lots of upsets already.

[matt1216]

I need Berdych and Djokovic to win to finish out a 12 team college ball/tennis parlay with 10/12 hitting yesterday, and it looks like Bird poo may screw me here. Wins the 1st set and lays an egg in 2nd set, 3rd set about to start now...

Yikes. Weird day

[matt1216]

Is pospisil still hurt Matt? He doesn't even look like he is putting up any fight

not even sure why this guy showed up.

[Bumdeal]

I can't get on the right side of Kush this year. I start backing him and he gets crushed as a favorite then start betting against him and he rolls as a dog. I guess vasek needs to get into form. Was a good shot, just didn't pan out.

[tipsadontlikehim]

not even sure why this guy showed up.

obviously for $$$$$$

[fitguy67]

matt, i know u're big on the books' lines tilting their hand to you about what they "know"

specific example i'd like u to comment on if/when convenient

Bet365 pre-game
Dodig -714
Gonzalez +450

a few minutes ago we were deadlocked in 3rd set at Dodig 5 - 4(serving) Gonzalez

indicating this match is far closer to a pickem now than pre-game
but b365's live odds were
Dodig -500
Gonzalez +333

Does 365 "know" that the big pre-game fave Dodig will win
(pisses me off cuz i figure Gonzalez has played surprisingly well-enough to reward me with at least a good enough softening on Dodig to allow me a nice green out)

Matt or anyone else can explain the "strategic" live pricing (apparently designed more to lock Gonzalez backers out of profitable greening-out than aimed at reflecting actual proabilistic realities)

_____________

edit: fukkin' right...backfired on 'em this time...they locked me into the full profit...rather than give me the opportunity to green out for the 50% i would have been happy with earlier when i wanted to (but couldn't because they made Dodig seem like a lock)

[fitguy67]

seems that live lines can be very opinionated (ie. strategically betting against their members, with a strong opinion about the result)...

but they're tipping their hand about their opinion...which doesn't imply any special info or "lock"...and it will backfire on them sometime...but overall they're in the drivers seat with the huge spreads live-betting allows them (especially vs. those "strongly-motivated" players looking to green out of a closely-contested position the book is leaning hard against)

[Bumdeal]

Nice doggy pick with Thiem.

[matt1216]

Nice doggy pick with Thiem.

Thanks bud

[matt1216]

obviously for $$$$$$

Thanks tips.

[matt1216]

matt, i know u're big on the books' lines tilting their hand to you about what they "know"

specific example i'd like u to comment on if/when convenient

Bet365 pre-game
Dodig -714
Gonzalez +450

a few minutes ago we were deadlocked in 3rd set at Dodig 5 - 4(serving) Gonzalez

indicating this match is far closer to a pickem now than pre-game
but b365's live odds were
Dodig -500
Gonzalez +333

Does 365 "know" that the big pre-game fave Dodig will win
(pisses me off cuz i figure Gonzalez has played surprisingly well-enough to reward me with at least a good enough softening on Dodig to allow me a nice green out)

Matt or anyone else can explain the "strategic" live pricing (apparently designed more to lock Gonzalez backers out of profitable greening-out than aimed at reflecting actual proabilistic realities)

_____________

edit: fukkin' right...backfired on 'em this time...they locked me into the full profit...rather than give me the opportunity to green out for the 50% i would have been happy with earlier when i wanted to (but couldn't because they made Dodig seem like a lock)

if u like I will make a thread with "only" the books tipping us? I can usually spot these and there in my thread at times, I just don't indicate them as well. Let me know if a few of u guys want me to start somethin like this.

[Semper Fidelis]

What happened to your set props thread? That seemed to be doing pretty well - were you only planning on doing it during the major tournaments, or do they only work on the smaller ones?

[matt1216]

What happened to your set props thread? That seemed to be doing pretty well - were you only planning on doing it during the major tournaments, or do they only work on the smaller ones?

They work fairly well. It takes a lot of time though. I don't get enough out of it for the amount of time it takes to make a play.