Fistula tennis (and boxing) picks

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Gasquet -3.5 games vs Klizan -154 (1)
Paire +3.5 games vs Wawrinka -135 (2)
Dolgopolov +4.5 games vs Berdych -153 (1)
Janowicz -3 games vs Dancevic -165 (2)
Del Potro -3.5 games vs Dodig -191 (2)
Gulbis over Fognini -185 (2)
Pospisil over Stepanek +144 (1)
Youzhny over Raonic +110 (3)
Haas -3 games vs Matosevic -169 (2)

[Fistula]

Yes!!! Pospisil came through as my dog of the week. I got him at probably the highest odds available too, +333. I love him as a serve and volleyer and he was hot under pressure. I always like betting against Isner too, haha.

[Fistula]

Despite the Pospisil win I ended up getting buried today with favs like Dimitrov and Simon choking.

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Gasquet -3.5 games vs Klizan -154 (1) WIN! +10
Paire +3.5 games vs Wawrinka -135 (2) WIN! +20
Dolgopolov +4.5 games vs Berdych -153 (1) LOSS -15.30
Janowicz -3 games vs Dancevic -165 (2) LOSS -33
Del Potro -3.5 games vs Dodig -191 (2) LOSS -38.20
Gulbis over Fognini -185 (2) WIN! +20
Pospisil over Stepanek +144 (1) WIN! +14.40
Youzhny over Raonic +110 (3) LOSS (FREE BET)
Haas -3 games vs Matosevic -169 (2) PUSH

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Gasquet over Nishikori -174 (2)
Pospisil over Berdych +477 (.5)
Paire over Matosevic -181 (2)
Gulbis +4.5 games vs Murray -123 (1)
Djokovic -5.5 games vs Istonin -156 (1)
Janowicz +4.5 games vs Nadal -132 (1)
Raonic +2.5 games vs Del Potro (1)

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Gasquet over Nishikori -174 (2) WIN! +20
Pospisil over Berdych +477 (.5) WIN! +23.85
Paire over Matosevic -181 (2) LOSS -36.20
Gulbis +4.5 games vs Murray -123 (1) WIN! +10
Djokovic -5.5 games vs Istonin -156 (1) LOSS -15.60
Janowicz +4.5 games vs Nadal -132 (1) WIN! +10
Raonic +2.5 games vs Del Potro (1) WIN! +10

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Pospisil over Davydenko -126 (1) PUSH
Gulbis over Raonic +144 (1) LOSS -10
Nadal -1.5 sets vs Matosevic -290 (.5)

Toronto:
Radwanska over Errani -250 (.5) WIN! +5

[Fistula]

Boxing picks:
Wilder-Liakhovich OVER 3.5 rounds -115 (2) LOSS -23
Nugaev-Hernandez OVER 9.5 rounds -220 (3) LOSS -66
Hernandez over Nugaev +300 (.5) I couldn't place more than a 5 CAD wager at these odds because Ladbrokes limited me after winning just 45 CAD in my first week using them. What a joke! LOSS -5
Hernandez over Nugaev +170 (1.5) LOSS -15
Pedraza over Tolmajyan -280 (1) WIN! +10

[Fistula]

Next weekend's boxing picks:
Campillo over Fonfara +188 (3)
Kovalev over Cleverly -120 (6)
Geale by DECISION over Barker +120 (4)

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Pospisil over Raonic +216 (1) LOSS -10
Nadal vs Djokovic OVER 21.5 games -150 (1) WIN! +10

[Sam_Hawkins]

Boxing Picks:
Campillo over Fonfara +188 (3)
Kovalev over Cleverly -120 (6)
Geale by DECISION over Barker +120 (4)

you know that Kovalev/Cleverly is on 17th, right?

[Fistula]

As indeed are all three of those fights I placed the bets early, so I'm listing them early here too. But post now duly edited! I love those three plays and I've had that weekend marked for a while as a likely big windfall

[Fistula]

Montreal:
Nadal -3 games vs Raonic -209 (2) WIN! +20

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Dolgopolov over Harrison -156 (.5)
Benneteau over Baghdatis -102 (1)
Querrey over Tipsarevic -164 (1)
Mayer over Isner +280 (1)
Janowicz over Blake -280 (1)
Fish over Kohlschreiber +135 (1)
Anderson over Haas +106 (1)
Dimitrov over Almagro -130 (1)
Bellucci over Robredo +156 (1)
Fognini over Stepanek -113 (1)
Gulbis over Youzhny -137 (1)
Melzer +3.5 games vs Monaco -147 (1)
Istomin -2.5 games over Baker -179 (1)
Pospisil over Simon +120 (1)
Sock over Raonic +237 (1)

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Janowicz over Blake -225 (3) How dare the bookies raise his odds when he should be a 1/5 fav...

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Dolgopolov over Harrison -156 (.5) LOSS -7.80
Benneteau over Baghdatis -102 (1) WIN! +10
Querrey over Tipsarevic -164 (1) LOSS -16.40
Mayer over Isner +280 (1) LOSS -10
Janowicz over Blake -280 (1) LOSS -28
Fish over Kohlschreiber +135 (1) LOSS -10
Anderson over Haas +106 (1) LOSS -10
Dimitrov over Almagro -130 (1) WIN! +10
Bellucci over Robredo +156 (1) LOSS -10
Fognini over Stepanek -113 (1) LOSS -11.30
Gulbis over Youzhny -137 (1) LOSS -10
Melzer +3.5 games vs Monaco -147 (1) LOSS -14.70
Istomin -2.5 games over Baker -179 (1) LOSS -17.90
Pospisil over Simon +120 (1) WIN! +12
Sock over Raonic +237 (1) LOSS -10

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Janowicz over Blake -225 (3) LOSS -67.50

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Kohlschreiber over Federer +410 (1)
Blake over Tursunov -114 (1)
Tipsarevic +3 games vs Raonic -147 (1)
Isner over Gasquet -104 (.5)
Granollers +4.5 games vs Haas -112 (1)
Wawrinka -2 games vs Robredo -164 (1)
Djokovic 1.5 sets (-440)/Nadal -1.5 sets (-459)/Berdych -1.5 sets (-203) +123 (1)

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Kohlschreiber over Federer +410 (1) LOSS -10
Blake over Tursunov -114 (1) LOSS -11.40
Tipsarevic +3 games vs Raonic -147 (1) PUSH
Isner over Gasquet -104 (.5) WIN! +5
Granollers +4.5 games vs Haas -112 (1) LOSS -11.20
Wawrinka -2 games vs Robredo -164 (1) LOSS -16.40
Djokovic 1.5 sets (-440)/Nadal -1.5 sets (-459)/Berdych -1.5 sets (-203) +123 (1) WIN! +12.30

[Fistula]

I decided I will take a break after Cincinnati and won't bet on tennis till the third round of the US Open. And if I don't at least make a profit in the US Open I'll quit for good. I thought I'd learnt a lot about tennis the last few months but I'm obviously shit at handicapping. Yesterday I lost all of what I'd made the last six weeks, so I'm back in the huge hole I was left in after Wimbledon. If I didn't bother with tennis I'd have a sizeable profit just with boxing. I'm quite confident in my boxing picks this weekend, but if they don't bail me out I might stop betting altogether.

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Murray -4.5 games vs Benneteau -152 (1) WIN! +10
Raonic +2.5 games vs Isner -152 (1) LOSS -15.20
Tursunov +4.5 games vs Ferrer -173 (.5) WIN! +5
Haas over Federer +206 (1) LOSS -10
Dimitrov +5.5 games vs Nadal -164 (1)

[mrlif1]

took Murray -5 -112. he's gonna roll.....on isner fairly large ml -160. don't see any reason to back raonic....then again I too am on a horrendous streak. Bol

[Fistula]

Yeah, Murray's the easiest pick tomorrow. I know Isner's on pretty good form and I guess I'd favour him to win, but with two serve-bots I just expected this to be closer to a pick 'em. It won't be easy for either to break serve, and Isner probably has the worse return. Federer was lucky to escape with a win against Kohlschreiber, and if he can't up his game fast Haas will win. I'm also going to add Dimitrov +4.5 games handicap if I can get it at a decent price...

[mrlif1]

was leaning haas with handicap. don't mind the insurance. he has a shot, federer owns him though (and seems on a mission). handicap or nothing for me on that one.

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Kvitova over Wozniacki -126 (1) LOSS -12.60

[mrlif1]

Cincinnati:
Kvitova over Wozniacki -126 (1)

like it, didn't pull the trigger...gl

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Murray -4.5 games vs Benneteau -152 (1) WIN! +10
Raonic +2.5 games vs Isner -152 (1) LOSS -15.20
Tursunov +4.5 games vs Ferrer -173 (.5) WIN! +5
Haas over Federer +206 (1) LOSS -10
Dimitrov +5.5 games vs Nadal -164 (1) LOSS -16.40

[Fistula]

Damn, I ruined my posting aesthetic by not updating the results of my third round picks early enough to edit them all in one post. And to make matters worse I had another losing day.

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Nadal -3 games vs Federer -163 (2) PUSH

I wanted to play Djokovic by games handicap, but even -2.5 games is too juicy at -244 if Isner's getting his 1st serve in at a good clip. In their previous four matches Isner took Djokovic to five breakers and won three of them.

[Fistula]

I'll add a write-up for my boxing picks this weekend. As I mentioned at the top of my thread, I'm an elitist boxing snob and refuse to post my boxing picks in the "cagefighting" forum. I hope they show I'm not the complete mug my tennis picks suggest...

Campillo over Fonfara +188 (3)

Fonfara just isn't that good. I watched his last fight vs Karpency and some of his earlier fights last week. He has slow feet, poor head movement, and he lets what should be a good jab get countered pretty easily. Karpency isn't a world-class fighter but he hit Fonfara a lot and it was an even fight till the fight was stopped on an injury. I think Fonfara only looked ok against Johnson because Johnson had nothing left. He's an accurate and pretty hard right-hand puncher and seems like he's improving, but if Campillo at his best shows up I think he wins. I don't think Fonfara can outbox Campillo, and Campillo handled better offensive fighters in Shumenov and Cloud. Sure Campillo is a light puncher who fights on the back foot so close rounds could go to the ineffective aggressor, but as an underdog I'll take a chance that the classier boxer will win convincingly enough that that won't be a an issue. I'm taking Campillo at more than my typical 2 units, but considering his record in close fights I don't want to go too big.

Kovalev over Cleverly -120 (6)

I love Kovalev here. Kovalev is being misread by too many as just the puncher in this fight, but he is also simply a better boxer than Cleverly. Kovalev throws the more compact punches, and more importantly has better balance, footwork, and mobility. He will close the distance while moving forward and outjab Cleverly for example. Kovalev doesn't overcommit to his punches so won't be too open to get hit, while Cleverly throws wider punches and squares up and can leave himself open when he punches. Cleverly may be more active and even faster but that won't be an advantage against a guy with Kovalev's boxing skill and ability to throw well-timed punches. Cleverly will give Kovalev chances and Kovalev will make him pay for them. Cleverly indeed has more experience going the distance, but to win I think he'll have to fight the perfect fight by overwhelming Kovalev with activity while moving away for every minute of all 12 rounds, and I'll be surprised if he's able to do that. I'd be on Kovalev for more than 6 units if my recent record could afford it, but this will have to do.

Geale by DECISION over Barker +120 (4)

I like Barker's classic boxer-puncher style and think he's one of the top five British fighters, but I really like Geale in this fight. Geale and Barker are about equal outside boxers, but Geale will set a hot pace that Barker won't be able to keep up with and then he'll take over on the inside. This fight is a lock to go the full 12, with Geale just scoring 2 KOs in his last 13 fights, so Geale by decision is the pick.

Gonzalez over Segura +110 (2)

Segura has slow feet, throws wide punches, and was taken apart by Edgar Sosa in his last fight with straight punching and basic but smart boxing. Gonzalez has a nice technical foundation like Sosa and also better hand and foot speed so I'm going with him to win. But this being his first step up I'm not too confident he has the smarts or durability to beat someone as experienced and relentless as Segura, so it will just be a medium play.

And a crazy parlay that I think has a decent chance...

Szpilka (-350)/Campillo (+162)/Kovalev (-110)/Romero (-500)/Geale (-200)/Gonzalez (+110) +2335 (1)

[Fistula]

Boxing picks:
Campillo over Fonfara +188 (3) LOSS -30
Kovalev over Cleverly -120 (6) WIN! +60
Geale by DECISION over Barker +120 (4) LOSS -40
Gonzalez over Segura +110 (2) LOSS -20
Szpilka (-350)/Campillo (+162)/Kovalev (-110)/Romero (-500)/Geale (-200)/Gonzalez (+110) +2335 (1) LOSS -10

[Fistula]

Cincinnati:
Nadal -2.5 games vs Berdych -199 (2) WIN! +20

[Fistula]

If I don't make a profit from my 4 bets Saturday I'm done with betting...

[mrlif1]

tailed kovalev. hopefully you win that one lol.

[Sam_Hawkins]

on kovalev too
and don't give up that easily (ofc if you feel like, it is always good to retire earlier than you get entirely into red), you had some solid run at the start, I think that if you choose your plays wisely and play only the ones you really love, you will be fine