diegoelmestre ATP Tennis picks

[diegoelmestre]

Baghdatis 2-0 @ 2.10 WilliamHill

This is a high risky bet, but I think Baghdatis has good chances to win in straight sets. After a very disappointing year, Baghdatis worked very hard in the preseason to try a more positive 2014 season, inclusive defeated Tsonga and Haas on Some exhibitions games in December. Faces an athlete rather limited, the service combined with hisforehand are big part of his game, then believe that Cyprus can earn an upward in baseline fights. Baghdatis was always cherished this area of the globe, and is also a player who galvanizes by public support, then consider that Baghdatis has everything on his side to make a quiet start and at the end to win it in straight sets. Baghdatis certainly do not want to have a season like 2013, so nothing better than starting with a resounding victory.

[diegoelmestre]

Daniel Brands @ 1.543 PinnacleI think Daniel Brands will win this match, and play as he played against Davydenko and Ferrer last week will win with some tranquility. Although Klahn have evolved a lot during last season, I do not think even has the experience necessary to defeat Brands, this moment, Brands is a better tennis player, in my opinion. Admittedly the match of Brands against Monfils was very disappointing, but I believe that faced with a more affordable player he can return to the good matches and then advance to the next round.


looking for dolgopolov, but not a play yet

[diegoelmestre]

adding Over 22 Games (Querrey v Pospisil) @ 1,714 Pinny

[diegoelmestre]

Today: 4-2-1 (two plays pending)

YTD: 32-21-3
Units:+4.86u
ROI: +8.60%

[diegoelmestre]

Under 19,5 Games (Pere Riba vs Oscar Hernandez) @ 1,72 Bet365

think that line will drop to 18,5 ou 17,5

[diegoelmestre]

Auckland

Tiebreak in Lukas Lacko v John Isner @ 1,61 Bet365
Over 22 Games (Giraldo v Garcia-Lopez) @ 1,806 Pinnacle

[diegoelmestre]

Sydney

Matosevic @1.87 Bookmaker

[diegoelmestre]

Last play of the day

AO quali

Bellucci 2-0 @ 1,80 bet365

[diegoelmestre]

Yesterday: 5-2-0

YTD: 37-23-3
%W/L (without pushed): 61,7%

Units:+6,67u
ROI: +10,67%

[magiccampos]

Nice keep the good work

[diegoelmestre]

Nice keep the good work

Thanks

[diegoelmestre]

Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1,97 Pinnacle

I think that Kohlschreiber will win this match. I preview many difficulties to John Isner tonight. John Isner seems to me that increasingly have difficulties in longer rallies, and in yesterday's match against Lacko still seemed a bit far from his best. Kohlschreiber is also not in his top form, but it seems to me, for the moment, have more arguments to win this match. The German also knows serve well as could be seen in the yestedays match against Zeballos (lost only 5 points in his service), but above all, will put difficulties in Isner from the baseline. Their mobility and positioningin court should allow him to take advantage in points where Isner will be forced to play more than 3, 4 strokes.

[diegoelmestre]

Yen-Hsun Lu @ 1,704 Pinnacle

I only see a possible winner for this match, and is Lu. The odds are clearly inflated by Steve Johnson victories against Baghdatis and Kevin Anderson, but now he faces an athlete with a completely different style of play. Lu will always return one more ball and forcce the American to run a lot in court, something that does not like at all because of his style of play more vertical. The Chinese have every advantage in the baseline and being a player who responds well to service, will present difficulties for Johnson since the first stroke. Lu faced two players who have a very similar style of play with Johnson, so it will already be quite prepared to deal with it. Expected some odds of around 1.50 for Lu, as they were a 1.70, for me the value is all in the Chinese.

[diegoelmestre]

Marinko Matosevic @ 1,724 Pinnacle

I believe Matosevic will win this match. The Australian likes to play at home, and with the support of his home crowd, certainly he will be very motivated to this match. Technically, I see Matosevic put Stakhovsky in many difficulties. The Australian can be more consistent rom the baseline but also has the ability to detroy the quality of net play from the Ukrainian, Matosevic is a good 'shot-maker' and is able to make passing-shots of beautiful effect, Stakhovsky's serve-and-volley will be not so effective as usually is. odds abova 1,70 seems to me very likable

[Bet10Heinekens]

Solid write up Diego

I agree Kohl will kill Inser in any type of rallies, Isner only has 1 weapon, his serve

[diegoelmestre]

Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1,854 Pinnacle

Alexandr Dolgopolov has the ascending in H2H and today, it seems to me, that will improve the H2H. I liked the tennis show by Dolgopolov, particularly in his match against Ferrer in Doha. Even against Janowicz liked him, although he still faced an athlete off the pace. Admittedly Tomic is the defending champion and playing at "home", but I cant see it the ability to nullify the very varied style of play by Dolgopolov. Dolgo will force him always playing on the edge, and we all know that Tomic has attitudes often somewhat dubious.

[diegoelmestre]

Solid write up Diego

I agree Kohl will kill Inser in any type of rallies, Isner only has 1 weapon, his serve

Thanks

Sadly the english is not always the best, but think that is understandable (:

[diegoelmestre]

Del Potro 2-0 @ 1,925 Pinnacle 1/2 unit

Under normal conditions, like this match being in middle of the season, would not hesitate to bet on win in straight sets for the Argentine. However, the first set of Delpo against Mahut left me a little hesitant, but I believe it was some competitive rust presented by Delpo. If he are at his best, I see him winning the match in straight sets, it has the ability to override the Czech voley-and-serve style, either because of his powerful strokes that take time to Stepanek, either with his ability to do passing-shots. Again I mention that because we are at the beginning of the season I'm not 100% reliable in my bet, then go with half the units that traditionally go.

[diegoelmestre]

later i'll post bets for AO men qualies

[addictedto]

From all plays I like mostly Kohl.

[diegoelmestre]

Taro Daniel @ 1.50 Pinnacle

I believe that Taro Daniel will win this match. At this point I see in Taro Daniel more capable to defeat the Chilean in hard courts as it is an equally strong player from baseline but with more capacity to attack. To further undermine Capdeville had a very tough game in the first round of qualifying. Defeated Luke Saville by 11-9 in the third set, set where went very badly physically, including having vomited. Taro Daniel will force the Chilean playing on the edge, and Capdeville probably will have some physical problems.

[Dmoneytx]

Hey diegoelmestre! I wanted to say hi & wish you the best of luck this year in the tennis dept I don't do the write ups anymore, started taking up way too much time, but it is ALWAYS nice to have another knowledgeable tennis guy on the site for sure. Hit me up if you need anything. BOL!!!


PS. Be careful of those qualies and Challangers, they can be an absolute biotch!!! Don't forget a lot of guys make their money in Challangers (and it's not from winning matches, it's from fixing them, believe it sir..) - BOL!!!

[diegoelmestre]

Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.454 Pinnacle
Pere Riba @ 2.79 Pinnacle

[diegoelmestre]

Hey diegoelmestre! I wanted to say hi & wish you the best of luck this year in the tennis dept I don't do the write ups anymore, started taking up way too much time, but it is ALWAYS nice to have another knowledgeable tennis guy on the site for sure. Hit me up if you need anything. BOL!!!


PS. Be careful of those qualies and Challangers, they can be an absolute biotch!!! Don't forget a lot of guys make their money in Challangers (and it's not from winning matches, it's from fixing them, believe it sir..) - BOL!!!

ye, i know that (about match fixing and that stuff), but funny fact, i have better perfomance in minor tournaments (qualies, Challenger and ITFs) than ATP Events xD

[PharaohUB]

Any thoughts on Sock-Agut? Agut performed much better on hard courts last year.

[diegoelmestre]

Any thoughts on Sock-Agut? Agut performed much better on hard courts last year.

sorry, i'm busy finishing some college workd and havent seen your message my initial lean was Agut, but Sock plays nice and never knows what will be out from his racket, giving that i decided no bet in this match.

[diegoelmestre]

horrible day yesterday, expected a lot at least a 5-3 day :\

Yesterday: 3-5-0

YTD: 40-28-3
%W/L (without pushed): 58,87%

Units:+3,92u
ROI: +5,60%

[diegoelmestre]

been busy last few days. I'll start check AO games in a while. So, expect some plays in next hours.

[diegoelmestre]

Over 38 (Falla v Kukushkin ) @ 1,94 Pinnacle
Over 37 (Sela v Nieminen) @ 1,86 Pinnacle
Dodig @ 1,62 Ladbrokes

more plays coming. had last time bugs in my college assigment because th

[diegoelmestre]

Over 38,5 (Giraldo v Querrey) @ 1,80 Ladbrokes
Adrian Mannarino @ 2,20 Bet365

[diegoelmestre]

Gulbis 3-0 @ 2,25 Ldbrokes (high risk bet)
Ferrer -9 games @ 1,86 Pinnacle 1/2u

Nicolas Mahut @ 1,60 Pinnacle
João Sousa @ 1,81 Pinnacle

[diegoelmestre]

Roger Vasselin -1.5 Sets @1.90 Sbobet
Roger Vasselin 3-0 @ 3.49 Pinnacle
Over 32,5 Games (P. Carreno Busta - J. Benneteau) @ 1,82 Pinnacle
Tiebreak 1st set (Groth vs Pospisil) @ 2,75 Bet365

[diegoelmestre]

Robredo @ 1.93 Pinnacle

[diegoelmestre]

Yesterday: 7-6-1 +0,63u

YTD: 47-33-4
%W/L (without pushed): 58,00%

Units:+4,55u
ROI: +5,38%


dammm, i'm really mad by losing That 3.0 in Roger Vasselin. He has the second set won with a double break advantage, 4-1, and still needed tiebreak to win that set. 3rd set started with a early break and 2-0 lead and then lose 4 straight service games. almost was a excellent day. But in the end we had profit, and that is whats matters.

[diegoelmestre]

Plays for 00:00 GMT matches

Kohlschreiber 3-0 @ 1,80 Ladbrokes
Yen Hsun Lu 3-0 @ 2,40 Pinnacle
Over 38 Games (Przy vs Zeballos) @ 1,855 Pinnacle
Over 35,5 Games (Matosevic v Nishikori) @ 1,935 Pinnacle
Over 37 Games (Gojowczyk v Hanescu) @ 1,875 Pinnacle